NVIDIA Corporation · NVDA · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

NVIDIA raises outlook as Blackwell and AI infrastructure demand accelerate

The latest call strengthens the case that AI infrastructure demand is supporting NVIDIA's earnings trajectory, but the durability of that growth still depends on supply execution, customer spending, and access to key markets.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $5666.50B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.05 Consensus $1.01
EPS surprise +4.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $46.74B Consensus $46.05B
Revenue surprise +1.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.8% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -1.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.1% Up to 20 sessions
NVDASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management presented a stronger outlook and broadened the growth narrative from Blackwell compute to networking, Rubin, sovereign AI, and robotics. The main unresolved issues remain China access, infrastructure bottlenecks, and competitive alternatives.

Guidance delta

Raised; management pointed to continued growth from Blackwell, networking, and broader AI infrastructure demand.

Key takeaways

  • Management described strong demand for agentic and reasoning AI workloads.
  • Blackwell and GB300 production remain central to the growth narrative.
  • Networking is expanding the opportunity beyond standalone accelerators.
  • The Rubin roadmap and sovereign AI initiatives extend the product and market runway.
  • China licensing and infrastructure constraints remain material checks on execution.

Management priorities

  • Scale GB300 and Blackwell Ultra production.
  • Advance the Rubin platform toward volume production.
  • Expand networking for multi-data-center AI factories.
  • Broaden RTX Pro server, robotics, and enterprise AI deployments.
  • Develop sovereign AI and ecosystem partnerships across key regions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NVDA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.34 Q3 '24 actual $0.40, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.46 Q4 '24 actual $0.52, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.56 Q1 '25 actual $0.61, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.64 Q2 '25 actual $0.68, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.01 Q2 '26 actual $1.05, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.26 Q3 '26 actual $1.30, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.54 Q4 '26 actual $1.62, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.76 Q1 '27 actual $1.87, beat Q2 '27 estimate $2.09 Q2 '27 actual $2.22, beat Q3 '27 estimate $2.47 Q4 '27 estimate $2.73 Q1 '28 estimate $3.17 Q2 '28 estimate $3.64
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy77 ratings
Bullish6077.9%
Neutral1418.2%
Bearish33.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$233.95Current
$13.3Low
$221.58Average
$515High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 1, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainSep 29, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Show 73 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $233.95. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$230$230.86 -1.7%Oct 2, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$300$223.67 +28.2%Sep 9, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$346$225.98 +47.9%Aug 27, 2026
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$300$225.64 +28.2%Aug 27, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$330$225.53 +41.1%Aug 27, 2026
See 307 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T07:00:47.339732+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T07:00:47.336690+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.