Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold31 ratings
Bullish1961.3%
Neutral929.0%
Bearish39.7%
Nucor Corporation · NUE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Record Shipments and Earnings Beat Drive Nucor Higher on Tariff-Protected Demand
Nucor delivered record quarterly results in its FY2026 first quarter, shipping 7 million tons of steel -- the highest in company history -- while generating $1.5 billion in EBITDA and $3.23 in earnings per share. The results beat consensus EPS estimates of $2.82 by 14.5% and revenue estimates of $8.88 billion by 6.9%. The beat was supported by tariff protections that have reduced imported steel's U.S. market share to approximately 15%, strong demand from data-center and infrastructure end markets, and a backlog that grew 20% to 4.7 million tons. The market responded positively, with the stock gaining 4.7% on the earnings session at 2.5x normal volume, followed by approximately 9.5% additional upside drift. At $255.55, shares trade below the analyst consensus price target of $267.50, with a median target of $272.00 and a high of $297.00.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$60.49B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationNucor Corporation is a prominent producer and distributor of steel and diverse steel-related products. Within its Steel Mills division, the company manufactures a comprehensive range of steel goods. These include various sheet steel types like hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized, alongside plate steel. It also produces structural components such as wide-flange beams, beam blanks, H-piling, and sheet piling. Furthermore, this segment supplies bar steel products, encompassing blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing bars, merchant bars, and specialized bar quality items. Beyond manufacturing, Nucor's steel mills are involved in steel trading and the distribution of rebar. Its clientele primarily consists of steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The Steel Products segment provides an array of manufactured steel goods, such as hollow structural section tubing, electrical conduits, steel racking, joists and girders, steel decks, and fabricated concrete reinforcing steel.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.23
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+14.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.50B
Consensus $8.88B
Revenue surprise
+6.9%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$256.02Current
$110Low
$191.24Average
$283High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 18, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 11, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 5, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 15, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2021 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | May 31, 2019 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 9, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 13, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 14, 2015 |
| Clarksons Platou | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 14, 2015 |
| CIBC | Sector Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2014 |
| Bernstein | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 12, 2013 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 4, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $256.02. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $272 | $235.09 | +6.2% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $239.63 | +7.0% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $258 | $243.83 | +0.8% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $252.6 | +10.5% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $257.73 | +14.1% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $270 | $226.44 | +5.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $224.9 | -4.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $225.11 | -6.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $217.23 | -8.2% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $215 | -12.5% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $190.04 | -16.8% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $183 | $173.58 | -28.5% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $180 | $167.88 | -29.7% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $176 | $160.69 | -31.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $151.99 | -34.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $147 | $151.99 | -42.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $165 | $152.4 | -35.6% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $142.83 | -45.3% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $164 | $127.4 | -35.9% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $160 | $127.4 | -37.5% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $132.49 | -39.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $154 | $131.3 | -39.8% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $160 | $147.73 | -37.5% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| CFRA | Matthew Miller | $129 | $146.02 | -49.6% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $170 | $142.18 | -33.6% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $160 | $142.18 | -37.5% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $176 | $141.26 | -31.3% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $175 | $153.61 | -31.6% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $170 | $154.44 | -33.6% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $190 | $172.12 | -25.8% | May 20, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $151.01 | -43.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $116.63 | -45.3% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $122.31 | -55.1% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $103.46 | -52.7% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $190 | $149.39 | -25.8% | May 4, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $168.66 | -42.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $168 | $173.05 | -34.4% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $171.27 | -31.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Glick | $129 | $165.32 | -49.6% | Apr 14, 2022 |
| UBS | Andreas Bokkenheuser | $110 | $107.06 | -57.0% | Jun 4, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NUE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+9.5%
Up to 20 sessions
NUESPY benchmark
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What changed
From Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, Nucor moved from a seasonal volume dip to record shipment levels. Adjusted EPS rose from $1.73 to $3.23. Backlog grew 20% to 4.7 million tons. Capital deployment of $661 million this quarter was heavily directed at the West Virginia sheet mill (40% of spend). Management added specificity on the WV mill ramp: commercial shipments targeted for early 2027, 50% capacity utilization by end-2027, and full ramp-up in 2028. New disclosures included investments in NuScale (nuclear) and Helion (fusion) energy projects for long-term power supply. A Section 232 tariff amendment now applies the full 50% duty to derivative steel products, closing a prior loophole. Capex outlook shifted from decreasing to stable.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance posture, reiterating expectations for greater than 5% volume growth in 2026. The capex outlook shifted from decreasing (prior quarter projected a drop from $3.4 billion in 2025 to approximately $2.5 billion in 2026) to stable. The West Virginia sheet mill timeline was refined with specific milestones: commercial shipments in early 2027, 50% utilization by end-2027, and full ramp-up in 2028. New regulatory detail emerged on the Section 232 tariff amendment extending the full 50% duty to derivative steel products.
Key takeaways
- Record quarterly shipments of 7 million tons, the highest in Nucor's history.
- EPS of $3.23 beat consensus of $2.82 by 14.5%; revenue of $9.5 billion beat estimates by 6.9%.
- EBITDA reached $1.5 billion with $254 million returned to shareholders alongside $661 million in capital investment.
- Backlog rose 20% to 4.7 million tons, supporting management's above-5% volume growth target for 2026.
- Section 232 tariff amendment closes the derivative-product loophole, keeping import share near 15%.
- Stock gained 4.7% on the earnings session at 2.5x normal volume, followed by approximately 9.5% additional drift higher.
Management priorities
- Complete West Virginia sheet mill commissioning with commercial shipments starting in early 2027.
- Bring online utility tower facilities in Indiana and Utah, plus a second galvanizing line in South Carolina.
- Expand sheet steel production for automotive and consumer-durable markets in the Midwest and Northeast.
- Continue investments in nuclear (NuScale) and fusion (Helion) energy for long-term, low-cost power supply.
- Balance shareholder returns with growth reinvestment across all three operating segments.
Related earnings events
Basic MaterialsSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T19:42:37.522114+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T19:42:37.519321+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.