Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1132.4%
Neutral1852.9%
Bearish514.7%
Northern Trust Corporation · NTRS · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Northern Trust Q2 Beat on EPS and Revenue, Guidance Raised on Visa Gain
Northern Trust delivered a strong Q2 with EPS beating consensus by 9.6% and revenue modestly ahead, fueled by a one-time $525M pre-tax Visa exchange gain and 13% organic revenue growth. Management raised full-year guidance to 9-10% revenue and NII growth. Despite the beat, shares fell 3.3% on the session at nearly 3x baseline volume, suggesting investors are looking past the Visa gain and questioning whether the large institutional deposits driving NII are sustainable into Q3.
Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services
$32.69B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.97
Consensus $2.71
EPS surprise
+9.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.71B
Consensus $2.69B
Revenue surprise
+0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.6%
Up to 20 sessions
NTRSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NTRS FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NTRS fall 3.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in NTRS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for NTRS after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
EPS of $2.97 beat the $2.71 consensus estimate by 9.6%; revenue of $2.71B edged past the $2.69B estimate, up 13% year-over-year. A $525M pre-tax gain from the second Visa Class B stock exchange offer strengthened capital ratios, with CET1 rising to 12.2% and Tier 1 leverage to 7.6%. Full-year revenue and net interest income growth guidance was raised to 9-10%, up from the prior mid-to-high single-digit NII outlook, with a 400 bps operating leverage target. Wealth management and Global Family Office revenues grew double-digits, driven by ultra-high-net-worth client acquisition. Operating leverage exceeded 700 bps for the quarter, though management cautioned that large institutional deposits boosting NII may be non-recurring.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year guidance to 9-10% revenue and net interest income growth with a 400 bps operating leverage target. This is an upward revision from the prior quarter's mid-to-high single-digit NII growth outlook. The increase incorporates the Visa exchange gain and stronger-than-expected fee income, but management explicitly flagged that the large institutional deposits supporting NII are viewed as non-recurring and could reverse in Q3.
Key takeaways
- Q2 revenue grew 13% YoY with EPS up 40%, exceeding consensus on both the top and bottom lines.
- The $525M Visa Class B exchange gain provided a one-time capital boost and improved regulatory capital ratios.
- Wealth management and Global Family Office revenues grew double-digits on ultra-high-net-worth client acquisition.
- Guidance was lifted to 9-10% full-year revenue and NII growth with a 400 bps operating leverage target.
- AI, alternatives, and digital assets remain strategic investment priorities alongside continued talent hiring.
Management priorities
- Scale AI tools across client engagement, investment research, and cybersecurity.
- Expand Global Family Office capabilities to a broader ultra-high-net-worth client base.
- Further develop the alternatives platform and custom fund-of-one offerings.
- Advance digital assets and tokenization services for institutional clients.
- Continue talent acquisition for revenue-generating producer roles.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$171.9Current
$85Low
$146.08Average
$194High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 27, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 14, 2023 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 24, 2022 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2020 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Jan 24, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2019 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 18, 2018 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 23, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 22, 2015 |
| Northern Trust Corp | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 13, 2013 |
| Rafferty Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2013 |
| Rafferty | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2013 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 17, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2013 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 21, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $171.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Manan Gosalia | $177 | $166.93 | +3.0% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $166.91 | +12.9% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $170.15 | +10.5% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $183 | $169.36 | +6.5% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Manan Gosalia | $173 | $178.66 | +0.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $178.66 | +12.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $178.66 | +9.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $178 | $178.66 | +3.5% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $179 | $180.44 | +4.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $176.09 | -1.1% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $172.41 | +8.2% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $148 | $150.08 | -13.9% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $148.9 | -7.5% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $144.12 | -13.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $130 | $144 | -24.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $139.28 | -6.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $124.28 | -19.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Q3 EPS | $131 | $125.48 | -23.8% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $133.24 | -26.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $131.2 | -17.4% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $133.9 | -21.5% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Betsy Graseck | $131 | $133.31 | -23.8% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $126.79 | -28.4% | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Betsy Graseck | $95 | $83.46 | -44.7% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $102 | $109.54 | -40.7% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Steven Chubak | $110 | $102.25 | -36.0% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Betsy Graseck | $127 | $107.92 | -26.1% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $107 | $102.51 | -37.8% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $103 | $102.51 | -40.1% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| CFRA | Kenneth Leon | $107 | $102.51 | -37.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $82 | $90.79 | -52.3% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| CFRA | Kenneth Leon | $95 | $86.16 | -44.7% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $86 | $79.56 | -50.0% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| CFRA | Kenneth Leon | $75 | $80.06 | -56.4% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $85 | $86.57 | -50.6% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $80 | $82.24 | -53.5% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $96.19 | -41.2% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $89.78 | -44.7% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $92.77 | -40.7% | Dec 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $91.8 | -46.5% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $107.88 | -15.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Jeff Harte | $141 | $125.16 | -18.0% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Seaport Global | James Mitchell | $151 | $123.62 | -12.2% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $133 | $119.92 | -22.6% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Susan Roth Katzke | $111 | $123.96 | -35.4% | Oct 20, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $125 | $106.72 | -27.3% | Oct 4, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NTRS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company established in 1889 and based in Chicago, Illinois, offers a comprehensive suite of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions worldwide. Its diverse client base includes corporations, institutions, families, and individual investors. The company structures its operations across two primary segments: Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing division delivers a broad spectrum of support and operational services tailored for institutional entities. These services include custody, fund administration, outsourced investment operations, investment management, investment risk and analytical reporting, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, and banking and cash management solutions.…
Historical context
All NTRS earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +15.6% | +1.8% | Arch Capital posts strong Q3 underwriting and returns $1.4B via buybacks |
| ACGLO Arch Capital Group Ltd. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +15.6% | -0.2% | Arch Capital posts strong Q3 underwriting; growth remains measured |
| NMR Nomura Holdings, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +0.1% | Nomura balances recurring growth against Wholesale cost pressure |
| DB Deutsche Bank AG | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +3.5% | Deutsche Bank raises revenue outlook after strong nine-month performance |
| UBS UBS Group AG | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -1.2% | UBS Q3: Wealth inflows and capital returns remain strong |
| SPGI S&P Global Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -0.4% | S&P Global raises guidance as AI demand grows; Capital IQ review begins |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ESSFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-4.0% move
- ACGLFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+15.6% EPS+1.8% move
- OKEFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+42.0% EPS-1.6% move
- ACGLOFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+15.6% EPS-0.2% move
- BXPFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+40.9% EPS+1.7% move
- TERFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+9.6% EPS-3.7% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-22T16:05:21.311754+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-30T01:23:13.872335+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T08:41:49.269507+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T08:41:49.266780+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.