Northern Trust Corporation · NTRS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Northern Trust raises targets on AI-led productivity and fee growth

The current analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: Northern Trust's growth plan combines AI-enabled productivity, wealth-management expansion, and broader fee-based offerings. The case depends on converting those initiatives into durable revenue and margin gains while managing NII, fee, and integration risks.

Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services $31.64B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.69 Consensus $2.37
EPS surprise +13.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.14B Consensus $2.06B
Revenue surprise +3.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.0% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +5.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.5% Up to 20 sessions
NTRSSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NTRS FY2025 Q4

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Why did NTRS rise 6.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NTRS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NTRS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management's stance moved from maintained guidance to raised targets. The current analysis emphasizes a 10% 2026 productivity target, low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth, a 33% pretax margin target, and returning more than 100% of earnings to shareholders.

Guidance delta

Raised: 2026 plans call for low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth, a 33% pretax margin target, and returning more than 100% of earnings to shareholders.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 2025 analysis highlights 9% revenue growth and 19% EPS growth.
  • AI-enabled productivity is central to the 2026 operating plan, including a 10% productivity target.
  • Wealth management growth centers on GFO wins, Family Office Solutions, and alternative funds.
  • Asset servicing and asset management are expanding fee bases through ETFs, digital assets, and capital-markets cross-selling.

Management priorities

  • Increase productivity through broader AI deployment
  • Expand Family Office Solutions, private markets, and alternative funds
  • Grow ETF servicing, European transactional banking, and digital-asset capabilities
  • Cross-sell capital-markets services and pursue opportunistic acquisitions

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NTRS EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.33 Q4 '23 actual $1.46, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1.45 Q1 '24 actual $1.70, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.75 Q2 '24 actual $1.78, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.74 Q3 '24 actual $2.01, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.06 Q2 '25 actual $2.13, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.26 Q3 '25 actual $2.29, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.37 Q4 '25 actual $2.69, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.32 Q1 '26 actual $2.71, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.71 Q2 '26 actual $2.97, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.84 Q4 '26 estimate $2.94 Q1 '27 estimate $2.94 Q2 '27 estimate $3.21
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1132.4%
Neutral1852.9%
Bearish514.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$169.36Current
$85Low
$140.3Average
$194High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 4, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 23, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform OutperformDowngradeJul 23, 2026
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 23, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 23, 2026
Show 29 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $169.36. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyManan Gosalia$173$178.66 +2.1%Jul 23, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$194$178.66 +14.5%Jul 23, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$189$178.66 +11.6%Jul 23, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$178$178.66 +5.1%Jul 22, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$179$180.44 +5.7%Jul 6, 2026
See 37 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company established in 1889 and based in Chicago, Illinois, offers a comprehensive suite of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions worldwide. Its diverse client base includes corporations, institutions, families, and individual investors. The company structures its operations across two primary segments: Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing division delivers a broad spectrum of support and operational services tailored for institutional entities. These services include custody, fund administration, outsourced investment operations, investment management, investment risk and analytical reporting, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, and banking and cash management solutions.…

Historical context

All NTRS earnings
-3.5%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+8.0%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
PUK Prudential plc FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 -40.9% -0.5% Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026
CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.9% -2.8% CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout
TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% +1.4% TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management
RY Royal Bank of Canada FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.2% -1.3% RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +1230.3% +0.3% Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T18:01:34.135248+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T18:01:34.131858+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.