Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold48 ratings
Bullish2143.8%
Neutral2450.0%
Bearish36.2%
Norfolk Southern Corporation · NSC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Norfolk Southern Beats on Volume Strength as Intermodal and Coal Drive Q2 Growth
Norfolk Southern's Q2 2026 beat was driven by genuine volume growth (4% YoY) rather than one-off items. EPS of $3.52 exceeded the $3.32 estimate by 6.0%, and revenue of $3.5B topped the $3.38B estimate by 3.6%. The market responded with a 6.6% abnormal move on 2.9x baseline volume, though shares subsequently drifted down 2.8%. Operationally, the story is improving: 20% higher on-time originations, reduced terminal dwell, and continued safety gains suggest PSR 2.0 execution is delivering measurable service improvements. The $150M cost-takeout target and $650M three-year cumulative savings goal provide a clear margin path, though higher fuel costs pushed operating expense guidance up to $8.8-$8.9B. Capex holds at $1.9B. New industrial development projects — Dito Apco, Virginia Transformer, and Sylvie Materials — add incremental growth optionality, while the pending CSX merger and…
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$76.11B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationNorfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), operating through its various subsidiaries, is a prominent rail transport provider in the United States. The company's core business involves the conveyance of raw materials, semi-finished goods, and completed merchandise across the nation. Its extensive freight services cover a broad spectrum of commodities. This includes a variety of agricultural and forestry products like grains (e.g., soybeans, wheat, corn), fertilizers, animal feeds, and diverse foodstuffs such as oils, flour, sweeteners, beverages, and canned goods, alongside lumber and paper products. NSC also handles a wide range of chemicals, from sulfur and petroleum derivatives to chlorine compounds, plastics, industrial chemicals, and sand.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.52
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+6.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.50B
Consensus $3.38B
Revenue surprise
+3.6%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$338.84Previous close
$175Low
$304.56Average
$400High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 11, 2025 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Jan 29, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 15, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Feb 21, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 30, 2020 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 18, 2017 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2016 |
| Avondale Partners | Underperform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 12, 2016 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 28, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2016 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 25, 2015 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 25, 2015 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2015 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 24, 2014 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 4, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2012 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 2, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $338.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $350.66 | +4.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $377 | $350.66 | +11.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $363 | $347.99 | +7.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $400 | $348.55 | +18.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $358 | $348.55 | +5.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $327.45 | +6.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $323.77 | +6.2% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $337 | $313.4 | -0.5% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $327 | $315.7 | -3.5% | May 7, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $330 | $318.81 | -2.6% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $318.02 | -8.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $360 | $319.58 | +6.2% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $319.58 | +6.2% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $319.58 | -4.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $283.28 | -8.5% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $342 | $306.91 | +0.9% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $291.07 | -15.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $288.09 | -5.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $294.43 | -4.1% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $298.56 | +0.3% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $294.26 | -12.3% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $295.1 | -13.5% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $315 | $281.5 | -7.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $284 | -10.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $298.68 | -5.6% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $354 | $298.68 | +4.5% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $295 | $293.32 | -12.9% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $260 | $257.46 | -23.3% | Jun 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $255 | $226.18 | -24.7% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $242.22 | -13.5% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $265 | $237.76 | -21.8% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ric Paterson | $287 | $260.43 | -15.3% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $285 | $260.43 | -15.9% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $282 | $260.43 | -16.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $280 | $260.43 | -17.4% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $309 | $260.43 | -8.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $285 | $260.43 | -15.9% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $290 | $260.43 | -14.4% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ariel Rosa | $302 | $261.62 | -10.9% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| CFRA | Emily Nasseff Mitsch | $248 | $261.46 | -26.8% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $275 | $253.77 | -18.8% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ric Paterson | $285 | $248.44 | -15.9% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $292 | $246.97 | -13.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $267 | $249.67 | -21.2% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $285 | $215.86 | -15.9% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $175 | $215.86 | -48.4% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $294 | $236.22 | -13.2% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $244 | $249.73 | -28.0% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $270 | $248.77 | -20.3% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $300 | $250.03 | -11.5% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $302 | $261.23 | -10.9% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $233 | $261.23 | -31.2% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $305 | $257.62 | -10.0% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $230 | $237.85 | -32.1% | Jan 26, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $272 | $240.14 | -19.7% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $254.07 | -24.7% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $256.5 | -15.9% | Dec 1, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $248.55 | -26.2% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $248.55 | -19.4% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $278 | $250.66 | -18.0% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $177 | $222.12 | -47.8% | Oct 27, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $240 | $218.93 | -29.2% | Oct 7, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors Majors | $218 | $214.55 | -35.7% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $275 | $221.7 | -18.8% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $263.96 | -15.9% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $335 | $268.56 | -1.1% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $320 | $268.56 | -5.6% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Jason Seidl | $321 | $267.84 | -5.3% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $320 | $267.84 | -5.6% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $345 | $293.4 | +1.8% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Benchmark Co. | Nathan Martin | $316 | $290.76 | -6.7% | Oct 28, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $330 | $290.76 | -2.6% | Oct 28, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $278 | $253.72 | -18.0% | Jul 28, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $303 | $260.36 | -10.6% | Jul 9, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $310 | $283.12 | -8.5% | May 4, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $321 | $276.25 | -5.3% | Apr 29, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NSC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.3%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.8%
Up to 20 sessions
NSCSPY benchmark
Follow NSC with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Volume growth reaccelerated to 4% YoY in Q2 after Q1's flat top line, with intermodal revenue up 7% compared to Q1's 4% intermodal volume decline. Operating expense guidance moved up to $8.8-$8.9B due to fuel costs, while capex remained at $1.9B. The quarter recorded $51M in merger-related expenses and $15M for the Eastern Ohio incident. Three new industrial development projects — Dito Apco (South Carolina), Virginia Transformer (Alabama), and Sylvie Materials (Ohio/North Carolina) — were announced, adding to the growth pipeline. The competitive landscape now includes a pending CSX merger and a Canadian National partnership, alongside continued cost discipline under the PSR 2.0 framework.
Guidance delta
Management maintained overall 2026 guidance. Operating expense guidance was raised to $8.8-$8.9B, attributed to higher fuel costs. Capex guidance remains at $1.9B. The $150M cost-takeout target and $650M cumulative three-year savings goal were reiterated.
Key takeaways
- EPS of $3.52 beat the $3.32 consensus estimate by 6.0%; revenue of $3.5B exceeded the $3.38B estimate by 3.6%.
- Volume grew 4% YoY, with intermodal revenue up 7% driven by truck-to-rail conversions in a tight trucking market.
- Net income rose 7% YoY, with record revenue less fuel despite higher fuel costs.
- Safety metrics improved: personal injury index down 16% and accident rate down roughly 25% YoY.
- Operational improvements include 20% higher on-time originations and reduced terminal dwell, boosting train velocity.
- $51M in merger-related expenses and $15M for the Eastern Ohio incident were recorded in Q2.
Management priorities
- Continue safety investments and pursue single-line frictionless service
- Execute the $150M cost-takeout program and maintain capex at $1.9B for network upgrades
- Accelerate the industrial project pipeline and expand capacity at new terminals
- Leverage the Canadian National partnership to enhance competition and network efficiency
- Advance joint-venture projects including Dito Apco, Virginia Transformer, and Sylvie Materials
Related earnings events
IndustrialsHON · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Honeywell Q2: Beat and Raise as Portfolio Reshaping Nears CompletionLMT · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Lockheed Martin Q2 2026: Record $230B Backlog, Raised Guidance, Ultra Maritime AcquisitionUNP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026UNP Q2 2026: Record EPS $3.41, Guidance Raised as Norfolk Southern Merger Clears Key Hurdles
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T20:04:08.930837+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T10:51:18.855168+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T10:51:18.852111+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.