Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy35 ratings
Bullish2057.1%
Neutral1440.0%
Bearish12.9%
Northrop Grumman Corporation · NOC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Northrop Grumman Beats on EPS and Revenue, Raises Full-Year Guidance on Record Backlog
Northrop Grumman delivered a strong Q2 2026, beating consensus on both EPS and revenue while building a record $105 billion backlog on $20 billion in new awards. Management raised full-year sales guidance to $44 billion and lifted EPS guidance by $1.20, driven by accelerating demand across B-21, Sentinel, missile defense, and international programs. The stock initially fell 3.1% on the day despite the beat, likely reflecting margin pressure from EAC adjustments on GEM 63XL and Stand-in Attack Weapon, but subsequently recovered with a 7.2% drift over the following sessions. The central question is whether H2 margin improvement materializes as management expects, and whether elevated capex will sustain the growth trajectory without pressuring free cash flow.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$78.02B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationNorthrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors. Its Aeronautics Systems division is responsible for the full lifecycle of aircraft, from design and development to production, integration, and ongoing maintenance. This includes a diverse portfolio of crewed and uncrewed aerial platforms: advanced strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air superiority jets, and sophisticated airborne systems for battle management and command and control. Additionally, it specializes in autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems, such as high-altitude, long-endurance strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, alongside vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems. The Defense Systems segment focuses on creating and delivering a wide array of weapons and mission technologies. Its offerings encompass integrated battle management solutions, various weapons platforms, and specialized aircraft.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$7.68
Consensus $7
EPS surprise
+12.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.88B
Consensus $10.80B
Revenue surprise
+0.7%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$549.22Previous close
$350Low
$608.84Average
$815High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 1, 2016 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 28, 2015 |
| Argus Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 25, 2014 |
| CRT Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2014 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $549.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $615 | $528.95 | +12.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $655 | $512.29 | +19.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $512.29 | -9.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $745 | $528.67 | +35.6% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $533 | $541.82 | -3.0% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Strauss | $620 | $549.04 | +12.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $580 | $504.57 | +5.6% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $620 | $555.58 | +12.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $575.11 | +20.2% | Apr 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $745 | $589.65 | +35.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $710 | $690.57 | +29.3% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $785 | $686.26 | +42.9% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $690 | $692.26 | +25.6% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $765 | $692.46 | +39.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $750 | $682.1 | +36.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $778 | $665.93 | +41.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $765 | $674.5 | +39.3% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| BTIG | Andre Madrid | $815 | $678.74 | +48.4% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Robert Stallard | $688 | $678.74 | +25.3% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $772 | $666.26 | +40.6% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $752 | $643.74 | +36.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $777 | $646.45 | +41.5% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $727 | $633.27 | +32.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $623 | $590.79 | +13.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $714 | $575.29 | +30.0% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Alembic Global | Peter Skibitski | $662 | $570.06 | +20.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $696 | $596.48 | +26.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $770 | $599.35 | +40.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| BTIG | Andre Madrid | $680 | $599.35 | +23.8% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $690 | $599.35 | +25.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $674 | $594.5 | +22.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $688 | $618.54 | +25.3% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $720 | $625.23 | +31.1% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $700 | $621.63 | +27.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $540 | $515.29 | -1.7% | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $525 | $472.65 | -4.4% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $550 | $472.65 | +0.1% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $513.82 | +4.7% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $557 | $452.39 | +1.4% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $550 | $504.05 | +0.1% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | David Strauss | $550 | $512.15 | +0.1% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $565 | $527.09 | +2.9% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Jason Gursky | $587 | $532.23 | +6.9% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $592 | $528.11 | +7.8% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $470.57 | $470.57 | -14.3% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $500 | $483.43 | -9.0% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $575 | $482.3 | +4.7% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $474 | $425.83 | -13.7% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $500 | $444.78 | -9.0% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $518 | $485.03 | -5.7% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $473 | $463.92 | -13.9% | Jan 25, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $490 | $440.64 | -10.8% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $487.98 | -31.7% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $489.6 | -1.7% | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $626 | $528.49 | +14.0% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $544 | $543.2 | -1.0% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $482 | $441.74 | -12.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $472 | $441.42 | -14.1% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $350 | $348 | -36.3% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Richard Safran | $419 | $350.55 | -23.7% | Jul 19, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Joseph DeNardi | $475 | $361.91 | -13.5% | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Spingarn | $388 | $332.95 | -29.4% | Apr 13, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NOC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.2%
Up to 20 sessions
NOCSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Guidance moved from maintained in Q1 to raised in Q2, with full-year 2026 sales lifted to $44 billion at the midpoint and EPS guidance increased by $1.20. Backlog grew from $96 billion to a record $105 billion. New developments include a $2 billion PAC-3 framework agreement with the Department of War and Lockheed Martin, the first commercial launch of the MRV satellite-servicing spacecraft, and NATO's $50 billion defense spending pledge that includes a commitment for Northrop Grumman's Triton autonomous aircraft. The US defense budget is tracking toward a ~10% increase for FY2027. Margin pressure emerged from EAC adjustments on GEM 63XL and Stand-in Attack Weapon, a new concern not flagged in Q1.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 sales guidance raised to $44 billion at the midpoint. EPS guidance increased by $1.20. Capex outlook remains increasing, consistent with the Q1 trajectory when capex guidance was raised to $1.85 billion for 2026. Guidance sentiment improved from maintained (Q1) to raised (Q2).
Key takeaways
- Q2 results beat expectations with a record $105 billion backlog and 5% year-over-year revenue growth to $10.9 billion.
- Full-year 2026 sales guidance increased to $44 billion (midpoint) and EPS guidance raised by $1.20.
- $20 billion in new awards drove the backlog increase, with strong order flow from Sentinel, B-21, missile programs, and international contracts.
- Margin pressure from EAC adjustments on GEM 63XL and Stand-in Attack Weapon, but management expects improvement in the second half.
- EPS of $7.68 beat the $6.82 consensus by 12.6%; revenue of $10.88 billion exceeded the $10.80 billion estimate.
Management priorities
- Break ground on a new advanced facility in Utah for Sentinel production.
- Establish an in-country solid rocket motor manufacturing facility in Australia.
- Launch and commercialize the MRV satellite-servicing spacecraft by 2027.
- Continue qualification and production of PAC-3 solid rocket motors and expand capacity.
- Pursue international sales to double international revenue to $10 billion by 2031.
Related earnings events
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-21T16:04:03.259856+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T10:33:38.989730+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T10:33:38.986955+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.