Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy28 ratings
Bullish1657.1%
Neutral1035.7%
Bearish27.2%
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NLY · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Annaly maintains strategy while navigating rate and regulatory risk
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of Annaly's operating trajectory: management cited resilience, liquidity and multiple capital-deployment avenues, while the evidence remains balanced by book-value, market-volatility and regulatory risks.
Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate
$13.83B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.70
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $420.7M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.4%
Up to 20 sessions
NLYSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NLY FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove NLY's -0.9% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in NLY's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for NLY after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter's analysis highlights a maintained outlook, an increased dividend, a larger agency allocation and continued resilience in residential credit and MSR. Management also identified potential opportunities linked to GSE privatization while emphasizing macro and regulatory uncertainty.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained, with plans to keep the dividend at its stated level and continue investing across agency MBS, residential credit and securitizations.
Key takeaways
- Management described a solid quarter and highlighted resilience across agency MBS, residential credit and MSR.
- Capital allocation remained focused on agency MBS, the OBX platform, HELOC and non-QM securitizations.
- Liquidity and diversified funding support the growth plan, but rate, spread and policy volatility remain central risks.
Management priorities
- Maintain the dividend policy described on the call.
- Continue allocating capital to agency MBS and expand the OBX loan-to-securitization platform.
- Pursue additional HELOC and non-QM securitizations.
- Monitor potential GSE privatization and related opportunities.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$18.35Previous close
$21Low
$23.93Average
$34High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Jones Trading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette& Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2024 |
| JonesTrading | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 14, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 23, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 12, 2015 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 5, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2014 |
| Portales Partners | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 8, 2014 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 11, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 12, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | May 3, 2013 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 7, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 13, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $18.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $18.48 | +14.4% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.01 | +19.9% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $18.01 | +14.4% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $18.42 | +14.4% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.59 | +30.8% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.74 | +25.3% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $25 | $23.06 | +36.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $24 | $24 | +30.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $25 | $23.84 | +36.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $25 | $23.33 | +36.2% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $22.77 | +25.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| BTIG | Eric Hagen | $25 | $22.77 | +36.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $23.5 | $22.7 | +28.1% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $22.5 | $20.6 | +22.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $20.76 | +9.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Kenneth Lee | $23 | $22 | +25.3% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Kevin Heal | $21 | $19.01 | +14.4% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $23 | $20.8 | +25.3% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $20.5 | $20.09 | +11.7% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Crispin Love | $21.5 | $18.88 | +17.2% | May 2, 2023 |
| JonesTrading | Jason Stewart | $22.5 | $21.39 | +22.6% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.44 | +52.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $25.54 | +41.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| KBW | Bose George | $34 | $32.36 | +85.3% | Oct 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NLY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAnnaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates as a multifaceted financial firm, specializing in managing capital across various sectors. Its core business encompasses mortgage-related investments and lending to middle-market corporations. NLY strategically deploys capital across a diverse range of assets, including government-sponsored (Agency) and privately-issued (non-Agency) mortgage-backed securities, residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage servicing rights, credit risk transfer instruments, corporate debt, and other commercial real estate investments. Operating as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), Annaly benefits from a particular tax structure. This designation exempts it from federal corporate income tax, provided it distributes the majority of its taxable earnings to its investors. Established in 1996, the firm's corporate headquarters are located in New York City.
Historical context
All NLY earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RITM-PD Rithm Capital Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.2% | — | Rithm highlights servicing, inflows and technology-led efficiency |
| CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | -2.5% | CBRE: Infrastructure Growth Offsets Capital-Markets Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the NLY recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-16T00:02:45.914612+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T10:50:46.031071+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T10:50:46.028094+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.