Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy10 ratings
Bullish880.0%
Neutral220.0%
Bearish00.0%
Nebius Group N.V. · NBIS · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Nebius raises CapEx as AI demand remains sold out
The supplied analysis supports a constructive growth case: sold-out capacity, strong pricing, expanding AI infrastructure, and a broader software platform point to sustained demand. The counterweight is that the next phase depends on financing and executing a much larger CapEx program while managing concentration, margin, and integration risks.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$54.39B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.23
Consensus $-0.77
EPS surprise
+70.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$399.0M
Consensus $375.1M
Revenue surprise
+6.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+15.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+15.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.2%
Up to 20 sessions
NBISSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NBIS FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NBIS rise 15.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in NBIS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for NBIS after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Versus the prior quarter, reported growth and ARR accelerated, the pipeline remained highly subscribed, and 2026 CapEx guidance rose from $16–20 billion to $20–25 billion. Management also highlighted the Meta contract and additional acquisitions, while maintaining a confident outlook.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its positive outlook but increased 2026 CapEx guidance to support capacity for expected 2027 demand.
Key takeaways
- Management reported strong demand exceeding available capacity and continued pricing power.
- The 2026 CapEx plan increased to $20–25 billion as the company prepares for 2027 demand.
- Revenue and ARR growth accelerated, supported by Nebius AI Cloud and large customer contracts.
- Acquisitions and the NVIDIA relationship broaden the platform, but add integration and execution demands.
Management priorities
- Expand data-center capacity in the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific.
- Scale Nebius AI Cloud and Token Factory across additional verticals.
- Develop inference and agentic-workload software capabilities.
- Execute strategic acquisitions and deepen the NVIDIA partnership.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$241.66Current
$55Low
$216.26Average
$410High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $241.66. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG Pactual | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $233.28 | -7.7% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Arvind Ramnani | $355 | $240.35 | +46.9% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $328 | $220.64 | +35.7% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Rob Oliver | $340 | $259.2 | +40.7% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $175 | $185.6 | -27.6% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $212.58 | -7.3% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $216.92 | +3.5% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $184.27 | +69.7% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $264.51 | +5.5% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $248 | $228.59 | +2.6% | May 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $221.65 | -40.4% | May 14, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $213.34 | +3.5% | May 13, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $136.33 | -46.6% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Alexander Platt | $200 | $130.54 | -17.2% | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $232 | $99.29 | -4.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Michael Donovan | $150 | $97.52 | -37.9% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $101.98 | -47.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $90.54 | -27.6% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $93.39 | -48.3% | Sep 10, 2025 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $95.72 | -46.2% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $77 | $71.08 | -68.1% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $55.17 | -73.1% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Duval | $68 | $44.3 | -71.9% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Scale AI | $55 | $50.46 | -77.2% | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $47 | $38.92 | -80.6% | May 21, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Alexander Platt | $45 | $37.56 | -81.4% | May 19, 2025 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNebius Group N.V. is a technology company dedicated to developing comprehensive infrastructure to serve the global artificial intelligence industry. Its operations encompass several key areas. Central to its mission is Nebius, an AI-focused cloud platform engineered to handle demanding AI workloads. This division constructs end-to-end AI infrastructure, featuring extensive GPU computing clusters, robust cloud platforms, and essential tools and services for developers.…
Historical context
All NBIS earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
| SAIL SailPoint, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | -1.2% | SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +22.0% | -10.4% | Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.4% | +3.7% | DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook |
| IOT Samsara Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +25.0% | +3.7% | Samsara: AI adoption expands as FY27 guidance holds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-17T18:05:49.018218+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T12:50:59.619090+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T12:50:59.616198+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.