Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1664.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish28.0%
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. · MTSI · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026
MACOM enters FY2027 with strong data-center demand and a capacity buildout
MACOM’s record FY2026 performance and management’s expectation for continued data-center growth support a constructive operating outlook. That thesis depends on converting demand into shipped products while expanding capacity and managing cost, telecom, and program-timing risks.
Why did MTSI fall 18.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q4?
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Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$14.54B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.09
Consensus $2.00
EPS surprise
+4.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$424.8M
Consensus $420.4M
Revenue surprise
+1.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-18.4%
Event window
SPY move
-4.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-13.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
MTSISPY benchmark
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Why did MTSI fall 18.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q4?What changed in MTSI's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MTSI after FY2026 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management described significant progress on indium-phosphide CW lasers and a 3.2T chipset, while laying out higher FY2027 capital spending to expand capacity at three fabs. The company’s latest outlook emphasizes expected data-center growth and a FY2027 revenue target; these are management plans, not realized results.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its stated outlook and described a FY2027 target of $2 billion in revenue, with a base case of approximately 80% year-over-year data-center growth. It also expects FY2027 capital spending to rise as it expands capacity.
Key takeaways
- FY2026 revenue reached a record, with growth across data center, industrial and defense, and telecom.
- Management sees data-center demand and near-packaged optics as important growth opportunities in FY2027.
- Capacity expansion and new-product ramps are central to management’s plans, with higher capital spending expected.
- CW laser commercialization and a 3.2T chipset are product opportunities, but remain execution-dependent.
Management priorities
- Expand capacity at Massachusetts, RTP, and France facilities.
- Ramp high-speed optical products and advance CW laser commercialization.
- Develop near-packaged optics and 3.2T interconnect products.
- Support satellite and defense opportunities while continuing product development.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$210.98Current
$65Low
$274.75Average
$475High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 25, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 3, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 4, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 29, 2020 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 29, 2020 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 17, 2019 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 27, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Northland Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 4, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 27, 2018 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 12, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $210.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $360 | $197.43 | +70.6% | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $300 | $198.37 | +42.2% | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $220 | $197.96 | +4.3% | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Melissa Fairbanks | $300 | $243.58 | +42.2% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $266.18 | +58.8% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $301.64 | +125.1% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $300 | $277.16 | +42.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $372.15 | +113.3% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $392.87 | +113.3% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $450 | $380.45 | +113.3% | May 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $350 | $356.27 | +65.9% | May 8, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $375 | $354.87 | +77.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Mark Lipacis | $427 | $355.7 | +102.4% | May 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | $450 | $344.47 | +113.3% | May 7, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $261.16 | +42.2% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $247.71 | +42.2% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $234.65 | +23.7% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $234.83 | +18.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $235.84 | +30.3% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $227.8 | +20.9% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $225.09 | +23.2% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $223.74 | +1.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $265 | $215.01 | +25.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | William Stein | $200 | $171.47 | -5.2% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $177.35 | -5.2% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Tim Savageaux | $225 | $179.64 | +6.6% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $175 | $166.92 | -17.1% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | William Stein | $180 | $164.63 | -14.7% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Williams Trading | David Williams | $120 | $102.5 | -43.1% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Blayne Curtis | $135 | $101.94 | -36.0% | May 13, 2024 |
| Williams Trading | David Williams | $115 | $102.85 | -45.5% | May 6, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $115 | $98.98 | -45.5% | May 3, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $115 | $96.39 | -45.5% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Mark Lipacis | $120 | $97.51 | -43.1% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Williams Trading | David Williams | $92 | $80.58 | -56.4% | Aug 28, 2023 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $66.52 | -64.0% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $65.83 | -69.2% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $56.79 | -70.6% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $51.89 | -69.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $51.61 | -64.5% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Craig-Hallum | Richard Shannon | $95 | $74.52 | -55.0% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Benchmark Co. | David Williams | $85 | $74.52 | -59.7% | Nov 4, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MTSI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the design and production of sophisticated analog semiconductor solutions. These critical components are integral to both wireless and wired connectivity systems, spanning the entire electromagnetic spectrum from radio frequency (RF) to lightwave, including microwave and millimeter wave bands. The company operates globally, with a significant presence in the United States, China, the broader Asia Pacific region, and other international markets. Their diverse product portfolio includes a range of standard and custom-engineered devices, such as integrated circuits, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, various types of switches (including limiters), as well as both passive and active discrete components, and complete subsystems.…
Historical context
All MTSI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FROG JFrog Ltd. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +37.7% | +35.3% | JFrog’s 31% Revenue Growth and Raised Outlook Highlight AI-Linked Demand |
| VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +6.9% | Verisk Q3: Subscription Growth Offsets Contractor and Weather Headwinds |
| IONQ IonQ, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +17.0% | -10.5% | IonQ reports record Q3 revenue and raises its 2026 outlook |
| ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.9% | -12.6% | Arrow’s record Q3 reflects broad demand, with inventory and mix risks to watch |
| EPAM EPAM Systems, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.9% | +20.6% | EPAM Raises AI-Native Revenue Target After Q3 Beat; North America Still Flat |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- AEEFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+5.7% EPS+0.0% move
- SUZFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+94.1% EPS+1.7% move
- DVNFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+6.8% EPS-1.6% move
- RGAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+21.8% EPS+0.1% move
- REGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+94.1% EPS-1.4% move
- EOGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+8.9% EPS+2.2% move
Missed on EPS
- REGCOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-32.6% EPS+2.0% move
- REGCPFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-32.6% EPS+0.6% move
- DKNGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-29.2% EPS-23.4% move
- WPMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-1.1% EPS+2.2% move
- CPTFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-27.2% EPS-3.1% move
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
Get the MTSI recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T19:19:28.745127+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T08:10:44.057405+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T08:10:44.053771+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.