Molina Healthcare, Inc. · MOH · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Molina: Growth plans advance, but medical-cost risk remains

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: contract wins, ConnectiCare, Marketplace growth and expected rate actions can support earnings growth, but the thesis depends on medical-cost control, adequate rates and successful execution.

Reported After market closeNYSEHealthcare $10.82B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $5.74
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $10.32B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -10.1% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -10.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +14.8% Up to 20 sessions
MOHSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The latest analysis adds new Medicaid and dual-contract wins, the ConnectiCare acquisition, and stronger embedded-earnings expectations. It also indicates that risk corridors delivered no material Q4 benefit, making rate actions and cost management more important than in the prior-quarter framing.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook while framing 2025 premium revenue at $42 billion and adjusted EPS at least $24.50; embedded earnings are expected to reach $7.75 per share in 2026.

Key takeaways

  • New Medicaid contracts and the ConnectiCare acquisition support expansion across additional states.
  • Marketplace enrollment growth and expected rate increases are key offsets to medical-cost pressure.
  • Risk-corridor protection provided no material Q4 benefit, increasing the importance of pricing and cost discipline.
  • The prior quarter emphasized rate support, new contracts, and ConnectiCare as the foundation for longer-term growth.

Management priorities

  • Expand Medicaid and dual-eligible contracts across new states.
  • Integrate ConnectiCare and use its member base to broaden the footprint.
  • Reinvest Marketplace margin into pricing while pursuing vendor and operating cost discipline.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MOH EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $5.59 Q1 '24 actual $5.73, beat Q2 '24 estimate $5.50 Q2 '24 actual $5.86, beat Q3 '24 estimate $5.81 Q3 '24 actual $6.01, beat Q2 '25 estimate $5.62 Q2 '25 actual $5.48, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3.97 Q3 '25 actual $1.84, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.43 Q4 '25 actual $-2.75, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.90 Q1 '26 actual $2.35, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.39 Q2 '26 actual $1.51, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.79 Q4 '26 estimate $0.60 Q1 '27 estimate $3.11 Q2 '27 estimate $2.57
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish1743.6%
Neutral1641.0%
Bearish615.4%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$210.2Current
$109Low
$211.58Average
$400High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 28, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainJul 24, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 24, 2026
Barclays Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 24, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 14, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainJun 8, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJun 4, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 22, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 11, 2026
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 11, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainMar 12, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainFeb 12, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 5, 2025
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainFeb 6, 2025
Deutsche Bank Hold HoldMaintainJul 29, 2024
Jefferies Hold HoldMaintainJul 24, 2024
B of A Securities Underperform NeutralDowngradeApr 1, 2024
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 28, 2023
Loop Capital Hold HoldMaintainJun 17, 2022
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 14, 2022
SVB Leerink Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 30, 2020
Cowen & Co. Outperform Market PerformUpgradeJun 16, 2020
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainMay 4, 2020
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 4, 2020
CFRA Buy HoldUpgradeMay 4, 2020
Bank of America Underperform UnderperformMaintainAug 1, 2018
Mitsubishi UFJ Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 21, 2017
Stifel Nicolaus Sell HoldDowngradeMay 31, 2017
Stifel Sell HoldDowngradeMay 31, 2017
Wolfe Research Perform Market PerformMaintainMay 8, 2017
PiperJaffray Overweight OverweightMaintainJan 4, 2017
Leerink Swann Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 2, 2016
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainSep 18, 2015
Sterne Agee Buy BuyMaintainJun 27, 2014
Monness, Crespi, Hardt Buy BuyMaintainMay 2, 2014
Monness Crespi Hardt Buy BuyMaintainMay 2, 2014
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainMar 14, 2013
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainApr 9, 2012
Bank oferica Underperform UnderperformMaintainFeb 24, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $210.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$220$199.48 +4.7%Jul 28, 2026
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$218$195.8 +3.7%Jul 24, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$180$200.29 -14.4%Jul 24, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$250$242.88 +18.9%Jul 14, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$230$242.88 +9.4%Jul 14, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$235$233.31 +11.8%Jul 13, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$286$233.31 +36.1%Jul 13, 2026
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$248$233.43 +18.0%Jul 9, 2026
BarclaysAndrew Mok$184$232.9 -12.5%Jul 8, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$216$197.42 +2.8%Jun 23, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$215$190.86 +2.3%Jun 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$167$184.82 -20.6%Jun 4, 2026
BarclaysAndrew Mok$199$175.59 -5.3%May 26, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$202$181.26 -3.9%May 22, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$205$186.49 -2.5%May 11, 2026
Robert W. BairdMichael Ha$163$185.94 -22.5%May 11, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$180$176.89 -14.4%Apr 27, 2026
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$159$175.94 -24.4%Apr 27, 2026
Deutsche BankGeorge Hill$129$168.3 -38.6%Apr 24, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$180$168.09 -14.4%Apr 24, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$146$169.9 -30.5%Apr 24, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$161$174.51 -23.4%Apr 24, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$173$148.78 -17.7%Mar 13, 2026
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$141$148.24 -32.9%Feb 20, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$145$134.1 -31.0%Feb 17, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$124$122.65 -41.0%Feb 11, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$109$128.47 -48.1%Feb 10, 2026
BarclaysAndrew Mok$133$127.53 -36.7%Feb 10, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$145$126.71 -31.0%Feb 9, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$144$128.79 -31.5%Feb 9, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnn Hynes$220$183.5 +4.7%Jan 9, 2026
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$208$184.73 -1.0%Jan 7, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$224$184.04 +6.6%Jan 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$164$178.46 -22.0%Jan 5, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$160$163.42 -23.9%Dec 16, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$175$164.13 -16.7%Oct 24, 2025
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$158$161 -24.8%Oct 24, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$170$161 -19.1%Oct 24, 2025
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$180$161 -14.4%Oct 24, 2025
Goldman SachsScott Fidel$167$161 -20.6%Oct 24, 2025
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$165$163.73 -21.5%Oct 24, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$210$194.37 -0.1%Oct 14, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$204$193.76 -2.9%Oct 14, 2025
Goldman SachsScott Fidel$207$194.27 -1.5%Oct 14, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$231$200.57 +9.9%Oct 7, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnn Hynes$330$221.55 +57.0%Jul 11, 2025
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$266$228.58 +26.5%Jul 10, 2025
Morgan StanleyErin Wright$364$297 +73.2%Jun 9, 2025
Robert W. BairdMichael Ha$375$335.5 +78.4%Apr 15, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$372$311.89 +77.0%Mar 5, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$376$302.84 +78.9%Mar 3, 2025
Robert W. BairdMichael Ha$331$275 +57.5%Oct 24, 2024
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$360$346.97 +71.3%Aug 5, 2024
JefferiesDavid Windley$297$286.9 +41.3%Jul 24, 2024
Truist FinancialDavid MacDonald$400$292.84 +90.3%Jul 15, 2024
Robert W. BairdMichael Ha$405$315 +92.7%May 29, 2024
BarclaysAndrew Mok$430$367.41 +104.6%Apr 25, 2024
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$410$376.57 +95.1%Apr 15, 2024
Wells FargoStephen Baxter$420$398.14 +99.8%Feb 15, 2024
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$375$318.92 +78.4%Jan 4, 2023
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$340$318.92 +61.8%Jan 3, 2023
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$345$327.5 +64.1%Aug 26, 2022
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$366$318.19 +74.1%Jul 29, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$380$319.47 +80.8%Jul 29, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$301$312.59 +43.2%May 25, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$311$306.08 +48.0%May 2, 2022
StephensScott Fidel$300$295.72 +42.7%Oct 29, 2021
BarclaysSteven Valiquette$340$295.72 +61.8%Oct 29, 2021
JefferiesDavid Windley$253$244.16 +20.4%Apr 14, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare programs, in addition to state health insurance marketplaces. Its operations are strategically segmented into four main divisions: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and a general "Other" category. By the close of 2021, specifically December 31st, Molina Healthcare's network extended to approximately 5.2 million members across 18 states, all of whom qualified for Medicaid, Medicare, or other government-sponsored healthcare plans. Established in 1980, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Long Beach, California.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-22T00:04:22.296664+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-19T23:00:44.328303+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-19T23:00:44.325012+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-19. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.