Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1661.5%
Neutral934.6%
Bearish13.9%
Altria Group, Inc. · MO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Altria: Smoke-Free Progress Meets Capex and E-Vapor Headwinds
The analysis supports a mixed but constructive operating thesis: smoke-free product progress, international expansion, and capacity investment provide growth avenues, while maintained guidance and persistent regulatory, competitive, and cost risks limit the strength of the near-term case.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$114.74B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.30
Consensus $1.32
EPS surprise
-1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.08B
Consensus $5.03B
Revenue surprise
+0.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+15.5%
Up to 20 sessions
MOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MO FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MO fall 5.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MO after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the narrative shifted from raised guidance and additional smoke-free initiatives to maintained guidance with greater emphasis on 2026 capex, import-export capabilities, and the national ON PLUS rollout. FDA authorizations for Helix ON PLUS and early regulatory enforcement against illicit e-vapor were notable developments.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72; the prior-quarter analysis had described guidance sentiment as raised.
Key takeaways
- Management reported adjusted EPS growth and highlighted progress on Helix ON PLUS authorizations and the planned national rollout.
- The smoke-free portfolio, international Fumi expansion, and import-export capabilities remain central growth priorities.
- Management maintained 2026 adjusted EPS guidance while increasing capex for capacity and import-export capabilities.
- Illicit disposable e-vapor products, pricing pressure, regulatory timing, and manufacturing costs remain important risks.
Management priorities
- National launch of ON PLUS in the first half of 2026.
- Expansion of the Fumi nicotine pouch line into additional international markets.
- Investment in import-export manufacturing capabilities and smoke-free product capacity.
- Dividend growth and share repurchases within capital-allocation priorities.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$67.34Current
$45Low
$59.07Average
$79High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2021 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Citi | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 20, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2017 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 1, 2017 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 15, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2015 |
| Wells Fargo | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 19, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $67.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $65.54 | -13.9% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $79 | $73.5 | +17.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $72.41 | -5.0% | May 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $66 | $73.83 | -2.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $72.94 | +12.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $72.64 | +14.3% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $72.64 | +5.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $72.64 | +14.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $74 | $67.04 | +9.9% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $63 | $67.57 | -6.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $59.76 | +1.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $62.92 | -0.5% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $55.9 | -6.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrei Andon-Ionita | $47 | $56.67 | -30.2% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $61 | $57.13 | -9.4% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $72 | $67.68 | +6.9% | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $60 | $58.79 | -10.9% | Apr 1, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $46 | $58.79 | -31.7% | Apr 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $46 | $54.14 | -31.7% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $60 | $53.87 | -10.9% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $53 | $49.86 | -21.3% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $57 | $54.07 | -15.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $54 | $49.01 | -19.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $50 | $46.77 | -25.7% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $47 | $44.28 | -30.2% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $45 | $42.91 | -33.2% | Sep 22, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Adam Spielman | $47 | $45.94 | -30.2% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $52 | $46.43 | -22.8% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Kenneth Zaslow | $46 | $47.58 | -31.7% | Feb 17, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $49.5 | $46.44 | -26.5% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $59 | $41.77 | -12.4% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $36 | $43.19 | -46.5% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $43 | $42.42 | -36.1% | Jun 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $50 | $54.01 | -25.7% | Jun 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Owen Bennett | $58 | $51.09 | -13.9% | May 23, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $53 | $55.26 | -21.3% | May 10, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Vivien Azer | $53 | $54.45 | -21.3% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $57 | $43.91 | -15.4% | Sep 30, 2021 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $45 | $45.21 | -33.2% | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $59 | $45.95 | -12.4% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items. Its portfolio features cigarettes, primarily under the iconic Marlboro brand, alongside cigars and pipe tobacco mainly offered as Black & Mild. The enterprise further provides an assortment of moist smokeless tobacco products, including Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky, in addition to its on! brand of oral nicotine pouches. Altria distributes its merchandise chiefly to wholesale partners, such as independent distributors, and directly to substantial retail organizations, including major chain stores. The corporation, founded in 1822, maintains its principal offices in Richmond, Virginia.
Historical context
All MO earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
| BF-A Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | — | Brown-Forman holds FY27 outlook as RTD innovation offsets barrel pressure |
| BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | — | Brown-Forman maintains FY27 outlook as innovation offsets pressure |
Latest beats and misses
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Get the MO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T22:56:06.992006+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T22:56:06.989093+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.