Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1661.5%
Neutral934.6%
Bearish13.9%
Altria Group, Inc. · MO · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Altria: Smoke-Free Growth Advances, but Volume Declines Persist
Altria's Q3 analysis supports a mixed but constructive operating thesis: smoke-free products, regulatory filings, international partnerships, and cost management provide growth avenues, while declining cigarette volumes and competitive and regulatory uncertainty limit confidence in durable earnings growth.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$113.34B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.45
Consensus $1.44
EPS surprise
+0.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.25B
Consensus $5.29B
Revenue surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.8%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-6.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.3%
Up to 20 sessions
MOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MO FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MO fall 7.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in MO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for MO after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, Altria reported further smoke-free expansion through the on! PLUS launch, Ploom FDA filings, and the KT&G collaboration with an ownership stake in LOOP. The company also reinforced shareholder returns by increasing its dividend and expanding the repurchase program.
Guidance delta
Management raised the lower end of 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance, building on the prior quarter's guidance raise.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted diluted EPS grew year over year in Q3 and year to date, supporting a higher low end for 2025 guidance.
- On! nicotine pouches remained a growth engine, with on! PLUS positioned for national expansion after its initial launch.
- Ploom filings and the KT&G collaboration broadened the smoke-free and international growth pipeline.
- Cigarette-volume declines, pouch competition, regulatory timing, and illicit-vapor enforcement remain important counterweights.
Management priorities
- Expand on! and on! PLUS while pursuing FDA-related product progress.
- Advance Ploom filings and other smoke-free initiatives.
- Use the KT&G collaboration and LOOP ownership stake to broaden international modern-oral reach.
- Continue cost management and shareholder-return programs.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$67.88Previous close
$45Low
$59.69Average
$79High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 22, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2021 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Citi | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 20, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2017 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 1, 2017 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 15, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2015 |
| Wells Fargo | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 19, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $67.88. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Andrei Andon-Ionita | $60 | $66.95 | -11.6% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $65.54 | -14.6% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $79 | $73.5 | +16.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $72.41 | -5.7% | May 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $66 | $73.83 | -2.8% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $72.94 | +12.0% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $72.64 | +13.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $72.64 | +4.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $72.64 | +13.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $74 | $67.04 | +9.0% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $63 | $67.57 | -7.2% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $59.76 | +0.2% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $62.92 | -1.3% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $55.9 | -7.2% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrei Andon-Ionita | $47 | $56.67 | -30.8% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $61 | $57.13 | -10.1% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $72 | $67.68 | +6.1% | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $60 | $58.79 | -11.6% | Apr 1, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $46 | $58.79 | -32.2% | Apr 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $46 | $54.14 | -32.2% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $60 | $53.87 | -11.6% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $53 | $49.86 | -21.9% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $57 | $54.07 | -16.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $54 | $49.01 | -20.4% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $50 | $46.77 | -26.3% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $47 | $44.28 | -30.8% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $45 | $42.91 | -33.7% | Sep 22, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Adam Spielman | $47 | $45.94 | -30.8% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $52 | $46.43 | -23.4% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Kenneth Zaslow | $46 | $47.58 | -32.2% | Feb 17, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $49.5 | $46.44 | -27.1% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $59 | $41.77 | -13.1% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $36 | $43.19 | -47.0% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $43 | $42.42 | -36.7% | Jun 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $50 | $54.01 | -26.3% | Jun 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Owen Bennett | $58 | $51.09 | -14.6% | May 23, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $53 | $55.26 | -21.9% | May 10, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Vivien Azer | $53 | $54.45 | -21.9% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $57 | $43.91 | -16.0% | Sep 30, 2021 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $45 | $45.21 | -33.7% | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $59 | $45.95 | -13.1% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items. Its portfolio features cigarettes, primarily under the iconic Marlboro brand, alongside cigars and pipe tobacco mainly offered as Black & Mild. The enterprise further provides an assortment of moist smokeless tobacco products, including Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky, in addition to its on! brand of oral nicotine pouches. Altria distributes its merchandise chiefly to wholesale partners, such as independent distributors, and directly to substantial retail organizations, including major chain stores. The corporation, founded in 1822, maintains its principal offices in Richmond, Virginia.
Historical context
All MO earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the MO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T10:10:45.843340+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T10:10:45.840424+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.