Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy64 ratings
Bullish5281.3%
Neutral1218.7%
Bearish00.0%
Mastercard Incorporated · MA · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Mastercard Q1 2026: Revenue Beat, EPS Surprise, but Middle East Tension Weighs on Cross-Border
Mastercard delivered a solid Q1 FY2026 with non-GAAP net revenue up 12% year-over-year and EPS of $4.60, beating consensus by 4.3%. Revenue of $8.40 billion topped estimates of $8.26 billion. Despite the beat, the stock declined sharply following the report, with an abnormal move of -5.24% versus a benchmark that rose nearly 1%, and a subsequent drift of -1.78%. The negative reaction centered on geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East pressuring cross-border travel volumes, decelerating Switch transaction growth, and questions about VAS pricing dynamics. Management remains confident, maintaining FY2026 guidance at the high end of low-double-digit net revenue growth while advancing strategic initiatives in agentic commerce, stablecoin integration via the planned BVNK acquisition, and AI-driven value-added services.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$487.48B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationMastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally. Its core business centers on enabling the entire payment transaction lifecycle – including authorization, clearing, and settlement – alongside offering a spectrum of complementary payment services. The company provides a comprehensive suite of integrated products and value-added services to a diverse clientele, which includes individual account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organizations.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.60
Consensus $4
EPS surprise
+4.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$8.40B
Consensus $8.26B
Revenue surprise
+1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$565.37Previous close
$298Low
$578.68Average
$740High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2025 |
| Keefe, Bruyette& Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 11, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 20, 2021 |
| Daiwa Capital | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 28, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2015 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2015 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 20, 2015 |
| Pacific Crest | Hold | Sector Perform | Maintain | May 19, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2015 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 12, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 16, 2014 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 27, 2014 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 6, 2013 |
| Meredith Whitney Advisory Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $565.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $696 | $595.3 | +23.1% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $740 | $599.86 | +30.9% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Matthew Coad | $633 | $573.58 | +12.0% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $695 | $577.87 | +22.9% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $642 | $571.74 | +13.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $632 | $571.71 | +11.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $670 | $569.54 | +18.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $681 | $577.35 | +20.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $680 | $577.35 | +20.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nik Cremo | $660 | $577.35 | +16.7% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $701 | $577.35 | +24.0% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Matthew Coad | $554 | $530.29 | -2.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $640 | $531.62 | +13.2% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Koning | $680 | $533.1 | +20.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Bill Carcache | $597 | $509.64 | +5.6% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $561 | $497.81 | -0.8% | May 12, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $665 | $495.46 | +17.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $679 | $495.2 | +20.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $640 | $501.29 | +13.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $609 | $503.4 | +7.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $502.92 | +17.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $590 | $500.86 | +4.4% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Bauch | $605 | $511.35 | +7.0% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $735 | $497.55 | +30.0% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $611 | $545.06 | +8.1% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Daiwa | Kazuya Nishimura | $610 | $555.37 | +7.9% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $678 | $543.73 | +19.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $739 | $543.73 | +30.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $668 | $543.73 | +18.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Raymond James | John Davis | $631 | $542.07 | +11.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Fahed Kunwar | $685 | $520.41 | +21.2% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $527.36 | +15.0% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $609 | $534.12 | +7.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Compass Point | Analyst unavailable | $735 | $566.28 | +30.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $610 | $563.47 | +7.9% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $633 | $545.52 | +12.0% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $730 | $551.55 | +29.1% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $547.3 | +17.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $547.3 | +23.8% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Compass Point | Dominick Gabriele | $620 | $547.3 | +9.7% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $713 | $553.68 | +26.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Matthew Coad | $638 | $580.3 | +12.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $572.03 | +17.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $669 | $572.03 | +18.3% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $580.45 | +16.7% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Jeff Cantwell | $616 | $553.02 | +9.0% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $655 | $542.35 | +15.9% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Will Nance | $633 | $547.38 | +12.0% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $650 | $555.43 | +15.0% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Monness | Gus Gala | $640 | $555.43 | +13.2% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Raymond James | John Davis | $640 | $555.43 | +13.2% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Timothy Chiodo | $660 | $555.43 | +16.7% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Alex Markgraff | $630 | $555.43 | +11.4% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $654 | $519.96 | +15.7% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $570 | $522.17 | +0.8% | Nov 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Rufus Hone | $565 | $521.22 | -0.1% | Nov 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $544 | $504.8 | -3.8% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $605 | $508.08 | +7.0% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Harshita Rawat | $560 | $515.01 | -0.9% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Surinder Thind | $580 | $502.26 | +2.6% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $576 | $499.95 | +1.9% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Alex Markgraff | $515 | $492.11 | -8.9% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Compass Point | Dominick Gabriele | $525 | $482.12 | -7.1% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| DNB Markets | Tien-tsin Huang | $500 | $462.41 | -11.6% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $526 | $459.49 | -7.0% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Rufus Hone | $520 | $466.8 | -8.0% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Jeff Cantwell | $521 | $466.8 | -7.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Andrew Schmidt | $538 | $463.71 | -4.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $530 | $443.58 | -6.3% | May 6, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rufus Hone | $510 | $441.74 | -9.8% | May 2, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Jeff Cantwell | $518 | $439.74 | -8.4% | May 2, 2024 |
| Raymond James | John Davis | $497 | $442.07 | -12.1% | May 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Daniel Perlin | $500 | $442.07 | -11.6% | May 2, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Koning | $545 | $460.16 | -3.6% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Rufus Hone | $490 | $460.92 | -13.3% | Feb 1, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $488 | $391.9 | -13.7% | Jul 28, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $400 | $376.43 | -29.2% | May 2, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $441 | $346.25 | -22.0% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $344.56 | -28.4% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $441 | $289.45 | -22.0% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $422 | $352.16 | -25.4% | Aug 9, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $352.16 | -22.2% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $352.77 | -31.9% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $352.77 | -29.2% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $417 | $354.3 | -26.2% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $457 | $354.46 | -19.2% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $340.38 | -24.8% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $322.86 | -29.2% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Andrew Jeffrey | $420 | $323.06 | -25.7% | Jul 10, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $319.26 | -47.3% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $313.36 | -33.7% | Jul 1, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $359.42 | -23.9% | May 2, 2022 |
| Williams Trading | Trevor Williams | $440 | $353.43 | -22.2% | May 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | James Fotheringham | $402 | $363.38 | -28.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $402 | $363.38 | -28.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $452 | $368.45 | -20.1% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $417 | $378.83 | -26.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $357 | $378.83 | -36.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Koning | $470 | $354.6 | -16.9% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $442 | $374.26 | -21.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $420 | $363.32 | -25.7% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $472 | $330.76 | -16.5% | Mar 4, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $435 | $382.2 | -23.1% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Davis | $447 | $381.98 | -20.9% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $449 | $381.98 | -20.6% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bryan Keane | $420 | $350.04 | -25.7% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Georgios Mihalos | $444 | $363.5 | -21.5% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Davis | $453 | $372.14 | -19.9% | Jan 16, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Moshe Katri | $380 | $336.11 | -32.8% | Dec 20, 2021 |
| Daiwa | Kazuya Nishimura | $385 | $360.55 | -31.9% | Aug 12, 2021 |
| Compass Point | Michael Del Grosso | $450 | $384.41 | -20.4% | Jul 30, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $439 | $388.69 | -22.4% | Jul 15, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Ashwin Shirvaikar | $448 | $388.69 | -20.8% | Jul 15, 2021 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $425 | $380.1 | -24.8% | Apr 30, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | James Friedman | $450 | $380.1 | -20.4% | Apr 30, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Moshe Orenbuch | $415 | $380.1 | -26.6% | Apr 30, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Christopher Donat | $370 | $386.96 | -34.6% | Apr 29, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.2%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.8%
Up to 20 sessions
MASPY benchmark
Follow MA with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 FY2026 net revenue grew 12% YoY, driven by healthy consumer and business spending, value-added services revenue surging 18%, and Switch transactions now representing over 70% of total volume. EPS reached $4.60 versus an estimate of $4.41, and revenue of $8.40 billion exceeded the $8.26 billion consensus. Despite the fundamental beat, the stock fell sharply on the report with an abnormal move of -5.24% while the benchmark rose roughly 1%, followed by additional drift of -1.78%. The negative reaction reflects investor concern over Middle East conflict impact on cross-border travel, decelerating Switch transaction growth, and VAS pricing and rebate dynamics. Strategically, Mastercard announced the planned acquisition of BVNK for stablecoin capabilities, launched verifiable intent (adopted by the FIDO Alliance as a security standard), and began early-stage agentic commerce rollouts with partners including Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI.
Guidance delta
FY2026 guidance was maintained at the high end of low-double-digit net revenue growth, with modest FX tailwinds expected. Capex outlook remains stable. Management indicated the Middle East conflict is expected to subside in Q2, which would support a cross-border recovery. No upward revision to guidance despite the beat, which may have contributed to the negative market reaction as investors were looking for a more bullish reiteration.
Key takeaways
- Q1 net revenue grew 12% YoY and EPS reached $4.60, beating consensus by 4.3%, reflecting strong network and value-added services performance
- Value-added services revenue surged 18% and Switch transactions now represent over 70% of total volume
- Geopolitical tension in the Middle East is the primary short-term headwind, but management expects resolution in Q2
- Strategic focus on AI, agentic payments, and stablecoins aims to unlock new transaction and data opportunities
- FY2026 guidance maintained at the high end of low-double-digit net revenue growth, with modest FX tailwinds
Management priorities
- Scale Mastercard Agent Pay and verifiable intent across more ecosystems
- Complete BVNK acquisition to launch stablecoin send/receive/convert services
- Deploy Mastercard One credential to community banks and credit unions
- Launch new affluent World Legend card programs in North America, Latin America, and Asia
- Expand AI generative model capabilities and embed them across products
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesHIG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026The Hartford Beats on Q2 Core Earnings, Divests Hartford Funds, Expands Buyback to $4.2BAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedGL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Globe Life Q2: Net Income Up 20%, EPS Guidance Raised on AI and Reinsurance Initiatives
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T07:01:24.628241+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T07:01:24.625182+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.