Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish1846.1%
Neutral1743.6%
Bearish410.3%
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. · LYB · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
LYB Q1 2026: EBITDA Up 50% as Middle East Conflict Reshapes Petrochemical Cost Curve
Q1 2026 was an inflection quarter for LyondellBasell. EBITDA rose roughly 50% to $615 million as the Middle East conflict steepened the global petrochemical cost curve, widening the advantage of LYB's low-cost U.S. ethane feedstock. The company closed its four-asset European divestiture and halved the quarterly dividend to fund balance-sheet repair and high-return growth projects like MoReTec-1. EPS of $0.49 beat consensus by about 75%, though revenue missed by roughly 4%. The stock was essentially flat on the print but has since drifted about 10% lower, reflecting investor tension between the dividend cut and the emerging margin recovery story.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$19.53B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationLyondellBasell Industries N.V., established in 2009 and based in Houston, Texas, operates as a prominent global chemical manufacturer with a significant international footprint, including the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, and the Netherlands. The company's diverse operations are organized into six distinct segments. Its core business involves the production and marketing of olefins and various polyolefins, such as high, low, and linear low-density polyethylene, along with polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers, for markets spanning the Americas…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.49
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
+74.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.20B
Consensus $7.53B
Revenue surprise
-4.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$60.44Current
$43Low
$88.69Average
$146High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Fermium Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2024 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 10, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 2, 2021 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 6, 2020 |
| ScotiaBank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | May 4, 2020 |
| CFRA | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Feb 10, 2017 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 13, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 12, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 27, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 9, 2013 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 29, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 4, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $60.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $59.32 | +19.1% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.67 | +2.6% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $53.36 | +5.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Abigail Eberts | $70 | $53.36 | +15.8% | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $52.58 | +37.3% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $52.65 | +2.6% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $65.65 | +20.8% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $67.67 | +62.1% | May 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $88 | $77.25 | +45.6% | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $77 | +35.7% | May 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $80 | $76.04 | +32.4% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $77 | $69.32 | +27.4% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $74.23 | +50.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $72.27 | +65.5% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $77.72 | +30.7% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $67.37 | +25.7% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $66.82 | +22.4% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $66.82 | +24.1% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $66.82 | +35.7% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $59.53 | +55.5% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Aleksey Yefremov | $73 | $58.21 | +20.8% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $56.74 | -37.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $53.33 | -15.6% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $49 | -12.3% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $48 | $49 | -20.6% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $50.47 | -18.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $46.2 | -20.6% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $43.6 | -37.1% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $45 | $43.06 | -25.5% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $36 | $44.4 | -40.4% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $49 | $45.23 | -18.9% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.35 | -17.3% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $46.27 | -32.2% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $52 | $46.42 | -14.0% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $45.86 | -15.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.16 | -17.3% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $43 | $48.94 | -28.9% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $49.33 | -10.7% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $49 | $64.28 | -18.9% | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $59.44 | +15.8% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Alembic Global | Hassan Ahmed | $67 | $58.76 | +10.9% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $51 | $56.44 | -15.6% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $85 | $57.98 | +40.6% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $80 | $72.48 | +32.4% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $98 | $85.12 | +62.1% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $112 | $85.3 | +85.3% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Chris Parkinson | $91 | $92.44 | +50.6% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $105 | $101.7 | +73.7% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $113 | $101.7 | +87.0% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $119 | $101.34 | +96.9% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $100 | $105.86 | +65.5% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $117 | $102.07 | +93.6% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $146 | $93.79 | +141.6% | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $118 | $95.46 | +95.2% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $97.69 | +65.5% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $98.15 | +80.3% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $91.38 | +50.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $92.06 | +60.5% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Christopher Parkinson | $88 | $87.15 | +45.6% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Duffy Fischer | $80 | $77.23 | +32.4% | Oct 13, 2022 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $83 | $77.15 | +37.3% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $76.69 | +40.6% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $80.07 | +52.2% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $82.45 | +65.5% | Sep 13, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Kevin McCarthy | $96 | $86 | +58.8% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $86.1 | +87.0% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.2 | +57.2% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $84.79 | +90.3% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $86.95 | +60.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $86.95 | +68.8% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $84.08 | +53.9% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $86.58 | +82.0% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | John Roberts | $70 | $87.66 | +15.8% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Laurence Alexander | $117 | $87.86 | +93.6% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $99 | $87.46 | +63.8% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $91.16 | +90.3% | Jun 17, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $110.58 | +118.4% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $107.84 | +110.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $108.81 | +106.8% | May 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $130 | $106.03 | +115.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $110.66 | +106.8% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $120 | $107.58 | +98.5% | Apr 16, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $104 | $95.63 | +72.1% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $115 | $95.63 | +90.3% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Colin Isaac | $113 | $99.84 | +87.0% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| HSBC | Sriharsha Pappu | $112 | $88.89 | +85.3% | Dec 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Josh Silverstein | $132 | $108.19 | +118.4% | Jun 9, 2021 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $125 | $102.52 | +106.8% | Apr 19, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LYB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-10.5%
Up to 20 sessions
LYBSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
From Q4 2025 to Q1 2026: EBITDA improved meaningfully, driven by Middle East conflict tightening global petrochemical supply. The four European asset divestiture previously flagged for Q2 2026 completion was finalized. The board approved a 50% quarterly dividend reduction, a notable shift from the prior quarter's maintained payout. Cash conversion improved from 95% to over 100%. Capex outlook shifted from decreasing to stable, with Q1 spend of $269 million. Bullish score rose from 68 to 70.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained from Q4 2025 into Q1 2026. Management expects higher margins and utilization in Q2 across olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates, targeting 90-95% utilization. The $500 million incremental cash-flow target for the year remains in place. Capex outlook moved from decreasing to stable. The 50% dividend cut represents the most significant change in capital allocation posture.
Key takeaways
- Middle East conflict steepened the global petrochemical cost curve, creating a supply gap that benefits LYB's low-cost U.S. ethane-based assets
- Q1 EBITDA rose nearly 50% to $615 million with cash conversion exceeding 100%, supporting a $500 million incremental cash-flow target for the year
- Sale of four European assets completed, sharpening capital allocation and expected to improve credit metrics while reducing fixed costs
- Board approved a 50% reduction in the quarterly dividend to strengthen the balance sheet and redirect capital toward growth projects
- Management expects higher Q2 margins and 90-95% utilization despite ongoing geopolitical and operational risks
Management priorities
- Ramp up U.S. capacity to meet global supply gaps created by the Middle East conflict
- Advance MoReTec-1 circular solutions project toward end-2027 ramp-up
- Continue cash improvement plan and repay 2026 and 2027 debt maturities
- Implement further price increases targeting 90-95% utilization in Q2
- Advance APS segment transformation toward a customer-centric growth model
Related earnings events
Basic MaterialsSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T04:13:38.034268+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T04:13:38.031366+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.