Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1943.2%
Neutral2045.4%
Bearish511.4%
Southwest Airlines Co. · LUV · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Southwest Airlines Q2 2026: EPS Beats by 84%, Unit Revenue Up 20%, Guidance Cut on Fuel
Southwest's Q2 was a sharp bottom-line beat -- adjusted EPS of $0.94 versus $0.51 consensus -- driven by 20% unit revenue growth and 6.7% operating margin from transformational initiatives including assigned seating, bag fees, and Starlink Wi-Fi. But the stock fell 4.95% on an abnormal basis in the session after the report, as the market digested lowered full-year EPS guidance of $3.25-$4.25 and the approaching headwind of lapped ancillary-fee rollouts that will pressure Q3 unit revenue. The tension: exceptional current results versus a less clear forward path with fuel assumptions adjusted and easy year-over-year comparisons fading.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$21.71B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationSouthwest Airlines Co. functions as a passenger airline, offering scheduled air travel services predominantly across the United States and to select neighboring international markets. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a consistent fleet of 728 Boeing 737 aircraft. Its extensive route network served 121 different locations, spanning 42 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, along with 10 international countries close by. These international destinations include Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.94
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+84.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$8.43B
Consensus $8.58B
Revenue surprise
-1.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$45.6Current
$27Low
$48.3Average
$73High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 28, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2021 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 2, 2020 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 26, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 27, 2020 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Sep 27, 2018 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2017 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2015 |
| Argus Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | May 17, 2013 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 5, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 31, 2012 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $45.6. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $46 | $45.08 | +0.9% | Jul 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $44.71 | +31.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $65 | $50.92 | +42.5% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.25 | +31.6% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $53 | $50.47 | +16.2% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $50.94 | +42.5% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $61 | $48.57 | +33.8% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $46.08 | -3.5% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $42.19 | +31.6% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $53 | $41.93 | +16.2% | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $37 | $38.21 | -18.9% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $44 | $38.81 | -3.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $36.1 | $37.75 | -20.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $51.11 | +60.1% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.44 | +20.6% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $51 | $49.62 | +11.8% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.52 | +5.3% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $32 | $48.5 | -29.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $50 | $48.5 | +9.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $50 | $48.5 | +9.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57.5 | $48.5 | +26.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $48.5 | +20.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $45.4 | -1.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $40.86 | +18.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42 | -1.3% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $29 | $43.85 | -36.4% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $45 | $44.08 | -1.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.19 | +9.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $45 | $42.75 | -1.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $40.73 | +7.5% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $45 | $40.98 | -1.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $41.71 | +22.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $42 | $41.73 | -7.9% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $43 | $40.76 | -5.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $43 | $37.95 | -5.7% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $37.85 | +5.3% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sergey Glinyanov | $42 | $31.38 | -7.9% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $31.92 | -27.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $32.31 | -23.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $31.91 | -32.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $34.15 | -25.4% | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $33 | $30.53 | -27.6% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $34 | $30.79 | -25.4% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $29 | $32.88 | -36.4% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $34 | $32.88 | -25.4% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $36 | $35.62 | -21.1% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $28 | $32.42 | -38.6% | Nov 15, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $30 | $30.67 | -34.2% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $32 | $30.64 | -29.8% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Stephen Trent | $31.5 | $29.57 | -30.9% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $24 | $29.88 | -47.4% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Olgenski | $27 | $29.75 | -40.8% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Stephen Trent | $28.25 | $28.6 | -38.0% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfenningwerth | $35 | $28.92 | -23.2% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $24 | $23.7 | -47.4% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $29 | $28.08 | -36.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $32 | $26.94 | -29.8% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $33 | $26.94 | -27.6% | Jul 5, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Olgenski | $26 | $28.3 | -43.0% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $26 | $26.15 | -43.0% | May 6, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $27 | $28.65 | -40.8% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $36 | $28.17 | -21.1% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $28 | $28.28 | -38.6% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $40 | $28.76 | -12.3% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $32 | $33.86 | -29.8% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $42 | $33.86 | -7.9% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.21 | -7.9% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $35.61 | -14.5% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $33.62 | -1.3% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $41.37 | $22.65 | -9.3% | Dec 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.91 | +5.3% | Dec 1, 2022 |
| Melius Research | Conor Cunningham | $47 | $39.65 | +3.1% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $51 | $38.16 | +11.8% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $37.87 | +11.8% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jamie Baker | $72 | $45.11 | +57.9% | May 17, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.72 | +16.2% | May 2, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $47.64 | +7.5% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $47.4 | +25.0% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $55 | $42.62 | +20.6% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jamie Baker | $61 | $42.93 | +33.8% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Adrian Yanoshik | $62 | $43.85 | +36.0% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Didora | $55 | $45.35 | +20.6% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $60 | $45.35 | +31.6% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Conor Cunningham | $45 | $44 | -1.3% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $60 | $45.27 | +31.6% | Dec 8, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | Conor Cunningham | $56 | $42.55 | +22.8% | Dec 1, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Helane Becker | $67 | $51.84 | +46.9% | Aug 11, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Joseph DeNardi | $65 | $50.7 | +42.5% | Jul 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LUV the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-6.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.0%
Up to 20 sessions
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.94 surpassed the $0.51 consensus by 84.3%, while revenue of $8.43B missed the $8.58B estimate by 1.8%. Unit revenue rose 20% YoY and operating margin reached 6.7%. Operating cash flow increased 32% YoY with liquidity at $5.3B and gross leverage at 2.1x. The first Starlink-equipped aircraft entered service, and the airline partner network expanded to nine carriers with the addition of Air Premia. Rapid Rewards neared 100 million members with enrollments up 35% and co-brand card acquisitions up 28%.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance was updated to $3.25-$4.25, a lowering from the prior trajectory as management adopted a more conservative fuel cost assumption. Q1 2026 guidance sentiment was 'maintained'; this quarter shifted to 'lowered.' Management continues to cite demand strength and pricing power but acknowledged that lapping bag-fee and ancillary initiatives will pressure Q3 unit revenue growth.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of $0.94 beat the $0.51 consensus by 84%, driven by 20% unit revenue growth and 6.7% operating margin.
- Revenue of $8.43B missed the $8.58B estimate by 1.8%, as softer top-line growth tempered the bottom-line beat.
- Full-year EPS guidance lowered to $3.25-$4.25 on a more conservative fuel cost curve despite strong demand.
- Rapid Rewards neared 100 million members; enrollments up 35%, co-brand card acquisitions up 28%.
- First Starlink-equipped aircraft entered service; airline partner network expanded to nine carriers.
Management priorities
- Complete full Starlink Wi-Fi deployment across the fleet.
- Optimize network and capacity at points of strength.
- Refine pricing of new fare products and ancillary offerings.
- Expand co-brand credit card portfolio and explore lounge concepts.
- Develop airline partner network and introduce new destinations.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T16:04:41.649403+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-30T01:23:13.872335+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T00:02:24.312580+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T00:02:24.309971+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.