Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1943.2%
Neutral2147.7%
Bearish49.1%
Southwest Airlines Co. · LUV · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Southwest’s initiatives advance, but lower guidance raises execution stakes
The supplied evidence supports a mixed view of Southwest’s transformation: revenue initiatives are progressing and management expects stronger 2026 EBIT as they mature, but the lower near-term guidance, demand uncertainty, and execution requirements make the improvement path dependent on successful rollout and load-factor gains.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$20.41B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.43
Consensus $0.51
EPS surprise
-15.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.24B
Consensus $7.30B
Revenue surprise
-0.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-11.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-11.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.6%
Up to 20 sessions
LUVSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LUV FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LUV fall 11.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in LUV's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for LUV after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shows more evidence of initiative progress—especially from bag fees and basic economy—but also a lowered guidance sentiment and a more explicit focus on execution, demand stabilization, and load factor. The event was followed by a sharply negative market reaction and subsequent drift.
Guidance delta
Management lowered full-year EBIT guidance to $600 million-$800 million, while pointing to stronger EBIT expansion in 2026 as revenue initiatives ramp.
Key takeaways
- Bag fees and basic economy are producing early revenue progress, according to management’s analysis.
- Assigned and premium seating remain important future revenue initiatives, with launch plans centered on January 2026.
- Management highlighted stabilizing demand, modest capacity growth, a strong balance sheet, and a new $2 billion share-repurchase program.
- The market reaction was sharply negative after the report, indicating that the lowered outlook outweighed the initiative progress in the immediate response.
Management priorities
- Execute the rollout of assigned and premium seating and extra-legroom products.
- Improve load factor through network connectivity, new routes, and partnerships.
- Continue cost discipline while maintaining liquidity and capital-return flexibility.
- Develop the Rapid Rewards and Chase co-branded card proposition.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$41.72Previous close
$27Low
$47.37Average
$72High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 28, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2021 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 2, 2020 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 26, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 27, 2020 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Sep 27, 2018 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2017 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2015 |
| Argus Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | May 17, 2013 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2012 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 5, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 31, 2012 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $41.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.04 | +31.8% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $50 | $42.68 | +19.8% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | James Goodall | $40 | $40.34 | -4.1% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $38.69 | +39.0% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $38.68 | +17.4% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $40.38 | +29.4% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $46 | $45.08 | +10.3% | Jul 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $44.71 | +43.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $65 | $50.92 | +55.8% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.25 | +43.8% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $53 | $50.47 | +27.0% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $50.94 | +55.8% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $61 | $48.57 | +46.2% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $46.08 | +5.5% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $42.19 | +43.8% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $53 | $41.93 | +27.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $37 | $38.21 | -11.3% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $44 | $38.81 | +5.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $36.1 | $37.75 | -13.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $51.11 | +75.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.44 | +31.8% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $51 | $49.62 | +22.2% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.52 | +15.1% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $32 | $48.5 | -23.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $50 | $48.5 | +19.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $50 | $48.5 | +19.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57.5 | $48.5 | +37.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $48.5 | +31.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $45.4 | +7.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $40.86 | +29.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42 | +7.9% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $29 | $43.85 | -30.5% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $45 | $44.08 | +7.9% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.19 | +19.8% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $45 | $42.75 | +7.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $40.73 | +17.4% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $45 | $40.98 | +7.9% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $41.71 | +34.2% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $42 | $41.73 | +0.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $43 | $40.76 | +3.1% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $43 | $37.95 | +3.1% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $37.85 | +15.1% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sergey Glinyanov | $42 | $31.38 | +0.7% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $31.92 | -20.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $32.31 | -16.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $31.91 | -25.7% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $34.15 | -18.5% | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $33 | $30.53 | -20.9% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $34 | $30.79 | -18.5% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $29 | $32.88 | -30.5% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $34 | $32.88 | -18.5% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $36 | $35.62 | -13.7% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $28 | $32.42 | -32.9% | Nov 15, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $30 | $30.67 | -28.1% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $32 | $30.64 | -23.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Stephen Trent | $31.5 | $29.57 | -24.5% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $24 | $29.88 | -42.5% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Olgenski | $27 | $29.75 | -35.3% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Stephen Trent | $28.25 | $28.6 | -32.3% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfenningwerth | $35 | $28.92 | -16.1% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $24 | $23.7 | -42.5% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $29 | $28.08 | -30.5% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $32 | $26.94 | -23.3% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $33 | $26.94 | -20.9% | Jul 5, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Olgenski | $26 | $28.3 | -37.7% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $26 | $26.15 | -37.7% | May 6, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $27 | $28.65 | -35.3% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $36 | $28.17 | -13.7% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $28 | $28.28 | -32.9% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $40 | $28.76 | -4.1% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $32 | $33.86 | -23.3% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $42 | $33.86 | +0.7% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.21 | +0.7% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $35.61 | -6.5% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $33.62 | +7.9% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $41.37 | $22.65 | -0.8% | Dec 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.91 | +15.1% | Dec 1, 2022 |
| Melius Research | Conor Cunningham | $47 | $39.65 | +12.7% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $51 | $38.16 | +22.2% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $37.87 | +22.2% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jamie Baker | $72 | $45.11 | +72.6% | May 17, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.72 | +27.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $47.64 | +17.4% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $47.4 | +36.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $55 | $42.62 | +31.8% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jamie Baker | $61 | $42.93 | +46.2% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Adrian Yanoshik | $62 | $43.85 | +48.6% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Didora | $55 | $45.35 | +31.8% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $60 | $45.35 | +43.8% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Conor Cunningham | $45 | $44 | +7.9% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $60 | $45.27 | +43.8% | Dec 8, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | Conor Cunningham | $56 | $42.55 | +34.2% | Dec 1, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Helane Becker | $67 | $51.84 | +60.6% | Aug 11, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Joseph DeNardi | $65 | $50.7 | +55.8% | Jul 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LUV the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSouthwest Airlines Co. functions as a passenger airline, offering scheduled air travel services predominantly across the United States and to select neighboring international markets. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a consistent fleet of 728 Boeing 737 aircraft. Its extensive route network served 121 different locations, spanning 42 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, along with 10 international countries close by. These international destinations include Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos.…
Historical context
All LUV earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T07:20:43.324725+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T07:20:43.322009+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.