Lam Research Corporation · LRCX · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2024

Lam Research: AI and advanced packaging support a confident outlook

The analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: AI-related logic, HBM, advanced packaging, and process transitions provide credible growth drivers, while China exposure, NAND-cycle uncertainty, inventory, and gross-margin mix remain material offsets.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $330.30B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.86 Consensus $0.81
EPS surprise +6.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.17B Consensus $4.06B
Revenue surprise +2.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +5.1% Event window
SPY move +0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +4.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -4.5% Up to 20 sessions
LRCXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, the current call adds emphasis to strong execution, AI and advanced-packaging demand, molybdenum transitions, and capital returns, while noting a lower China revenue contribution and continuing uncertainty around NAND recovery.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its guidance stance; the analysis does not identify a new change versus the prior quarter.

Key takeaways

  • Management described demand tied to AI compute, HBM, advanced packaging, and newer logic and memory architectures.
  • The analysis highlights strong quarter execution and cash generation alongside a lower expected China revenue contribution.
  • The central debate is whether technology inflections can offset memory cyclicality, China exposure, and mix-related margin pressure.

Management priorities

  • Expand selective etch, ALD, DirectDrive, and advanced-packaging platforms.
  • Invest in equipment-intelligence services and targeted laboratory upgrades.
  • Support customer proximity through continued investment in U.S. and Asia facilities.
  • Use technology inflections in gate-all-around, backside power distribution, HBM, and molybdenum transitions to pursue WFE outperformance.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
LRCX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $4B Q2 '24 actual $4B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $4B Q3 '24 actual $4B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $4B Q4 '24 actual $4B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $4B Q1 '25 actual $4B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5B Q4 '25 actual $5B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '26 actual $5B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5B Q2 '26 actual $5B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $6B Q3 '26 actual $6B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $7B Q4 '26 actual $7B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $8B Q2 '27 estimate $8B Q3 '27 estimate $8B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish3880.9%
Neutral817.0%
Bearish12.1%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$263.94Current
$54.3Low
$240.73Average
$575High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
B. Riley Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 1, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $263.94. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyShane Brett$385$347.49 +45.9%Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental ResearchAnalyst unavailable$390$336.72 +47.8%Oct 1, 2026
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$420$320.42 +59.1%Sep 9, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$425$301.49 +61.0%Sep 1, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$365$310.17 +38.3%Aug 25, 2026
See 133 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Lam Research Corporation is a prominent supplier of equipment vital for semiconductor processing, encompassing its design, production, sales, repair, and ongoing maintenance. These sophisticated systems are fundamental for the creation of integrated circuits. The company's extensive product catalog features a variety of deposition technologies. For tungsten metallization, they provide ALTUS systems that deposit conformal films. SABRE products excel in electrochemical deposition, crucial for copper interconnect transitions and enabling copper damascene manufacturing. SOLA utilizes ultraviolet thermal processing for film treatments, while VECTOR delivers plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and atomic layer deposition (ALD) solutions. Furthermore, SPEED addresses gapfill applications with its high-density plasma CVD products, and Striker is engineered for single-wafer atomic layer deposition of dielectric films.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T18:50:42.257783+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T18:50:42.254967+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.