Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish932.1%
Neutral1553.6%
Bearish414.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Lennox International Inc. · LII · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Lennox holds guidance as destocking nears completion
Lennox's supplied earnings analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: margin strength, improving channel inventory, and growth in parts, services, commercial replacement, ductless, and heat pumps could support the next phase. The counterevidence is a 3% revenue decline, below-estimate reported EPS and revenue, residential weakness, and exposure to inflation, tariffs, and inventory absorption.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$12.73B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.45
Consensus $4.75
EPS surprise
-6.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.20B
Consensus $1.27B
Revenue surprise
-5.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.7%
Up to 20 sessions
LIISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LII FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LII fall 2.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in LII's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for LII after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, guidance sentiment moved from lowered to maintained. The supplied current analysis says channel destocking is near completion, highlights a 20.4% segment margin, and points to higher 2026 capital spending and a broader investment program.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2026 outlook in the supplied analysis; no change was reported for this event.
Key takeaways
- Management reported a record 20.4% segment margin despite a 3% revenue decline.
- The supplied analysis says channel destocking is near completion, with one-step largely done in Q1 2026 and two-step expected by Q2.
- Management identified parts and services, commercial emergency replacement, ductless, and heat pumps as growth drivers.
- Capital expenditures are planned to rise to $250 million in 2026 for digital, training, and automation initiatives.
- The scorecard shows reported EPS and revenue below estimates; the supplied analysis does not attribute the miss to a single cause.
Management priorities
- Expand parts and services and commercial emergency replacement.
- Broaden ductless and heat-pump product penetration and joint-venture offerings.
- Invest in training centers, digital tools, e-commerce, automation, test labs, and R&D centers.
- Continue bolt-on acquisitions and joint-venture expansion.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$363.53Current
$238Low
$488.7Average
$675High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 15, 2024 | |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 21, 2024 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2016 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 19, 2015 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2015 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2014 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Jul 23, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $363.53. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Tusa | $424 | $367.78 | +16.6% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $444 | $366.04 | +22.1% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $375 | $376.35 | +3.2% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $547 | $417.45 | +50.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $469 | $417.4 | +29.0% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $650 | $544.11 | +78.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $517.62 | +51.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $517.62 | +65.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $597 | $517.62 | +64.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $517.88 | +47.2% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $495.08 | +23.8% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $592 | $495.08 | +62.8% | Jan 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $534 | $490.76 | +46.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $630 | $482.84 | +73.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $572 | $487.49 | +57.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $487.49 | +44.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $563 | $520.04 | +54.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $667 | $519.85 | +83.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $530 | $503.89 | +45.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $680 | $505.78 | +87.1% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $525 | $500.01 | +44.4% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $560 | $506.75 | +54.0% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Northcoast Research | Aaron Reed | $525 | $501.17 | +44.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $498.17 | +52.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $545 | $493.07 | +49.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $475 | $497.73 | +30.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $493.07 | +92.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $523.94 | +55.4% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $575 | $550.63 | +58.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $676 | $653.51 | +86.0% | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $600 | $509.14 | +65.0% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $580 | $582.93 | +59.5% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $675 | $609.74 | +85.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $619 | $609.74 | +70.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $624 | $609.74 | +71.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $600 | $606.64 | +65.0% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $648 | $604.04 | +78.3% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $610 | $557.19 | +67.8% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $570 | $535.61 | +56.8% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $520 | $467.85 | +43.0% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $510 | $467.85 | +40.3% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jeffrey Hammond | $515 | $467.93 | +41.7% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $481 | $465.99 | +32.3% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $460 | $377.3 | +26.5% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $391 | $357.42 | +7.6% | Aug 17, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $260.76 | -17.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $241.69 | -29.0% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $235.91 | -19.1% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| UBS | Damian Karas | $265 | $246.48 | -27.1% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $248.64 | -23.3% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $220.52 | -37.3% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $243.88 | -26.3% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $243.99 | -29.9% | Aug 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $239.53 | -31.5% | Aug 1, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $213.59 | -42.2% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $217.46 | -38.9% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $216.92 | -19.7% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $219.62 | -36.7% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $202.46 | -36.5% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $188.29 | -47.7% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $238 | $211.56 | -34.5% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $202.49 | -34.0% | May 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $227.32 | -38.1% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $227.72 | -24.4% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $235.11 | -28.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $238.94 | -33.4% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $254 | $226.75 | -30.1% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $300 | $262.16 | -17.5% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Saravana Raghavan | $331 | $324.93 | -8.9% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $310 | $300.86 | -14.7% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $302 | $339.45 | -16.9% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $300 | $344.9 | -17.5% | Jun 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LII the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLennox International Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor specializing in heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration solutions. The company operates across three divisions: Residential Heating & Cooling, Commercial Heating & Cooling, and Refrigeration. Its Residential Heating & Cooling division supplies homeowners with systems like furnaces, air conditioners, and heat pumps, along with indoor air quality products, comfort controls, and replacement components, catering to both new construction and existing residential upgrades.…
Historical context
All LII earningsIndustrials peers this season
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| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the LII recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T13:51:02.507462+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T13:51:02.504608+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.