Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold3 ratings
Bullish133.3%
Neutral266.7%
Bearish00.0%
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz · KSPI · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Kaspi.kz: Growth Held Up, but GMV Guidance Was Cut
Kaspi.kz's growth engines remained active, supporting a constructive operating picture, but the lowered GMV outlook and funding, regulatory, and Turkish-expansion risks make the durability of growth less certain.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$17.67B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.66
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.37B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.7%
Event window
SPY move
+3.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-11.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.9%
Up to 20 sessions
KSPISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KSPI FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove KSPI's -7.7% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in KSPI's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for KSPI after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the emphasis from broad growth momentum to execution and external constraints: GMV guidance was lowered, while high-interest term deposits, new funding, and planned Turkish fintech expansion became more prominent priorities.
Guidance delta
Management lowered GMV growth guidance to 15–20%, citing temporary smartphone-registration regulation and macro uncertainty.
Key takeaways
- Management reported roughly 20% revenue growth and 16% net-income growth despite macro headwinds.
- Payments TPV rose 23% and marketplace GMV rose 20%; e-grocery and term deposits were highlighted as growth drivers.
- Kaspi plans a $300 million Turkish-market investment and intends to complete the Rabobank acquisition to launch fintech services there.
Management priorities
- Expand e-grocery into two additional Kazakh cities.
- Grow term-deposit products and scale marketplace and payments.
- Complete the Rabobank acquisition and invest in Turkish fintech services.
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$92.99Current
$100Low
$117.4Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 20, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $92.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $106.46 | +23.7% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $95.64 | +7.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.4 | +2.2% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $76.17 | -6.4% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Mikhail Butkov | $107 | $76.85 | +15.1% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nida Iqbal | $115 | $84.97 | +23.7% | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Darrin Peller | $150 | $124.36 | +61.3% | May 29, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, established in 2008 and based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, operates alongside its subsidiaries to deliver a comprehensive suite of digital services encompassing payments, e-commerce, and financial technology. These offerings cater to both individual consumers and a diverse range of merchants. The company's operations are structured around three core platforms: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments Platform is designed to streamline transactions between customers and businesses. For consumers, it facilitates shopping payments, routine bill settlements, and peer-to-peer money transfers. For merchants, it enables them to accept payments both online and in-store, generate and manage invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor their sales performance. This platform also leverages proprietary data to inform strategic business decisions across various operational areas. The Marketplace Platform functions as an integrated hub, connecting online and physical retailers with consumers.…
Historical context
All KSPI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-28T00:03:27.953406+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T16:00:44.601840+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T16:00:44.599114+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.