Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy29 ratings
Bullish1862.1%
Neutral1137.9%
Bearish00.0%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. · KDP · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Keurig Dr Pepper raises sales outlook as JDE deal reshapes strategy
The quarter supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: stronger sales expectations, product innovation and the JDE Peet's transaction provide potential growth drivers, while integration, leverage, commodity costs and separation execution remain material constraints.
Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Defensive
$41.32B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.54
Consensus $0.54
EPS surprise
+0.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.31B
Consensus $4.15B
Revenue surprise
+3.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+7.6%
Event window
SPY move
+1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.4%
Up to 20 sessions
KDPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about KDP FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did KDP rise 7.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in KDP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for KDP after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from maintained guidance and a focus on beverage innovation and distribution expansion to a raised net sales outlook, reaffirmed EPS guidance and a broader strategic agenda centered on acquiring JDE Peet's, funding the transaction, capturing synergies and separating the coffee and beverage businesses by year-end 2026.
Guidance delta
Net sales outlook was raised to high-single-digit growth; EPS guidance was reaffirmed.
Key takeaways
- Management described Q3 performance as strong and raised its net sales outlook while reaffirming EPS guidance.
- The JDE Peet's acquisition is intended to create a global coffee company alongside a separate beverage business.
- Management outlined $400 million of targeted cost synergies and a $500 million JDE productivity program.
- Apollo and KKR equity investments are intended to improve balance-sheet flexibility and reduce leverage.
Management priorities
- Integrate JDE Peet's and execute the planned 2026 separation
- Capture targeted cost synergies and productivity improvements
- Advance Keurig Alta, Coffee Collective, premiumization and DSD expansion
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$30.37Current
$24Low
$36.25Average
$43High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 15, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 15, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Apr 1, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 26, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2021 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 7, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 4, 2018 |
| Gabelli & Co. | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 9, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 14, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Outperform | Positive | Maintain | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 11, 2018 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $30.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $38 | $31.06 | +25.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $29.56 | +31.7% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $30.01 | +25.1% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $42 | $30.88 | +38.3% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $38 | $31.05 | +25.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.24 | +28.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $32.73 | +21.8% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $31.23 | +25.1% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $28.85 | +12.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $28.76 | -1.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.93 | -7.8% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $36 | $30.49 | +18.5% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $32 | $28.59 | +5.4% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $38 | $29.5 | +25.1% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.5 | +5.4% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $35 | $28.69 | +15.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $30 | $28.64 | -1.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $28.68 | +15.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Kevin Grundy | $24 | $27.11 | -21.0% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| HSBC | Sorabh Daga | $30 | $30.48 | -1.2% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $41 | $31.1 | +35.0% | Aug 25, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $34.4 | +38.3% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $34.2 | +28.4% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Mike Lavery | $35 | $34.12 | +15.2% | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $42 | $36.92 | +38.3% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $41 | $36.51 | +35.0% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $37 | $37.46 | +21.8% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Filippo Falorni | $43 | $37.46 | +41.6% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $37 | $33.14 | +21.8% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Bill Chappell | $34 | $34.06 | +12.0% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Sean King | $40 | $34.22 | +31.7% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Bonnie Herzog | $41 | $34.82 | +35.0% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $39 | $33.84 | +28.4% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Kaumil Gajrawala | $35 | $30.73 | +15.2% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Theo Brito | $38 | $35 | +25.1% | Mar 21, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $35.34 | +31.7% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $37.76 | +28.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $38 | $38.11 | +25.1% | Oct 28, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $37 | $37.28 | +21.8% | Sep 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $37.8 | +51.5% | May 2, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $37.99 | +41.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| UBS | Sean King | $41 | $34.67 | +35.0% | Jul 30, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $36 | $35.11 | +18.5% | Apr 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on KDP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a prominent beverage firm with operations spanning both the United States and global markets. The company structures its business across four primary divisions: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages. Its Coffee Systems division is responsible for the production and distribution of an array of finished products linked to its coffee brewing systems, including K-Cup single-serve pods, brewing machines, and specialized coffee blends. Brewers are offered for sale via external distributors, various retail outlets, and directly through its official website, keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment focuses on manufacturing and distributing its proprietary packaged drink labels.…
Historical context
All KDP earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the KDP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T23:30:41.520041+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T23:30:41.517356+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.