Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy23 ratings
Bullish2087.0%
Neutral28.7%
Bearish14.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. · HWM · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Howmet: Spares Growth Supports Raised Full-Year Outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong engine-spares demand, defense programs, and industrial-gas-turbine growth are supporting the outlook, while capacity execution, tariffs, and aircraft-ramp timing remain important tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$89.10B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.77
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.94B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+6.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+14.8%
Up to 20 sessions
HWMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about HWM FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove HWM's +6.8% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in HWM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for HWM after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, spares reached 20% of revenue ahead of the earlier schedule, full-year EBITDA and free-cash-flow guidance was raised, and management added detail on Japan and Europe capacity expansion and tariff mitigation.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year EBITDA and free-cash-flow guidance; the supplied analysis does not include revised figures.
Key takeaways
- Record Q1 revenue and EBITDA margin were accompanied by 51% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
- Engine spares grew about 33% year over year and reached 20% of revenue, while commercial transportation remained challenged.
- Management cited limited net 2025 tariff exposure after mitigation and continued capacity investment, dividends, and buybacks.
Management priorities
- Expand IGT and engine-product capacity in Japan and Europe.
- Hire about 1,000 employees by year-end to support expansion.
- Invest in turbine-airfoil and broader engine capacity.
- Maintain dividends, share repurchases, and a 1.1x net-debt-to-EBITDA target by year-end.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$222.75Previous close
$41Low
$258.72Average
$370High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2024 | |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Northcoast Research | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 6, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 4, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $222.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $298 | $225.3 | +33.8% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $227.13 | +57.1% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $343 | $252.04 | +54.0% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $328 | $265.88 | +47.3% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $335 | $285.14 | +50.4% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $281.88 | +41.4% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $281.88 | +66.1% | Aug 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $285.35 | +57.1% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $275.01 | +52.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $318 | $277.3 | +42.8% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $320 | $270.56 | +43.7% | May 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $274.6 | +41.4% | May 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $274.54 | +30.2% | May 8, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $274.01 | +48.1% | May 8, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $320 | $275.36 | +43.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $272.54 | +34.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Myles Walton | $270 | $251.47 | +21.2% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $280 | $251.47 | +25.7% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $251.65 | +34.7% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $252.55 | +23.5% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $250.21 | +2.4% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $249.06 | +25.7% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $250.21 | +16.7% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $315 | $250.21 | +41.4% | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $250.54 | +25.7% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $250.85 | +23.5% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $278 | $248.61 | +24.8% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $290 | $244.79 | +30.2% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $225.86 | +14.5% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $210.02 | +15.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $212.13 | +10.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Industrial Alliance Securities | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $205.95 | +7.7% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $202.87 | +5.5% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $202.87 | -6.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $235 | $208.22 | +5.5% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $202.87 | +1.0% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $217 | $194 | -2.6% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $220 | $191.65 | -1.2% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $181.16 | -8.0% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $118 | $125.67 | -47.0% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $130 | $111.66 | -41.6% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $123 | $106.21 | -44.8% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $176.25 | $75.56 | -20.9% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Philip Gibbs | $90 | $84.34 | -59.6% | May 28, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $90 | $78.89 | -59.6% | May 6, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $88 | $77.1 | -60.5% | May 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $90 | $77.1 | -59.6% | May 3, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $84 | $77.1 | -62.3% | May 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $80 | $65.93 | -64.1% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $75 | $66.74 | -66.3% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $74 | $55.57 | -66.8% | Jan 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $38.52 | -78.9% | Dec 12, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $31 | $33 | -86.1% | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $41 | $31.3 | -81.6% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $36.65 | -81.6% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $35 | -82.9% | May 4, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHowmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and originally established in 1888 as Arconic Inc., is a global leader in providing sophisticated engineered solutions. The company caters to the aerospace and transportation sectors across a wide international footprint, including key markets such as the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, and China. Its business operations are structured into four main segments: Engine Products: This division manufactures critical components like airfoils and seamless rolled rings, primarily utilized in aircraft engines and industrial gas…
Historical context
All HWM earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-17T00:02:52.217204+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T09:20:41.605110+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T09:20:41.602310+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.