Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1840.9%
Neutral2556.8%
Bearish12.3%
Humana Inc. · HUM · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Humana: Membership Growth Meets a Significant STAR-Related Margin Headwind
Humana's membership growth, improved retention, and CenterWell expansion support the operating trajectory, but the near-term earnings case remains constrained by the STAR-rating headwind and new-member margin pressure.
Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare
$45.81B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-3.96
Consensus $-4.00
EPS surprise
+1.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$32.52B
Consensus $32.04B
Revenue surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.7%
Up to 20 sessions
HUMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about HUM FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did HUM fall 3.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in HUM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for HUM after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current call adds a 20% Medicare Advantage membership increase, roughly 1 million new members, a 500-basis-point retention improvement, and at least $9 of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. Management also expects individual Medicare Advantage margins to be slightly below breakeven in 2026 and identified a planned primary-care acquisition.
Guidance delta
Maintained: 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is at least $9.
Key takeaways
- Medicare Advantage membership rose by roughly 1 million, or 20%, during AEP, while retention improved by 500 basis points.
- Management expects individual Medicare Advantage margins to be slightly below breakeven in 2026, excluding the STAR-rating effect.
- CenterWell pharmacy and clinic volumes, Medicaid expansion, and value-based care are the main operating supports identified in the call.
Management priorities
- Expand CenterWell clinics and pharmacy services
- Grow Medicaid in Georgia and Texas and advance value-based partnerships
- Pursue a primary-care acquisition while continuing cost-cutting, outsourcing, and automation
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$381.57Previous close
$180Low
$400.35Average
$652High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Sep 25, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 14, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Leerink Partners | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 2, 2024 |
| SVB Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 3, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 21, 2020 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 1, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 24, 2017 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 24, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2015 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 3, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 3, 2015 |
| Leerink Swann | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 1, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 10, 2014 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 5, 2013 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 5, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $381.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $379.96 | +35.0% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Justin Lake | $450 | $378.87 | +17.9% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $362.16 | -3.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $407 | $366.61 | +6.7% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $463 | $369.62 | +21.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $367.84 | +6.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $405 | $367.16 | +6.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $390 | $365.89 | +2.2% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $471 | $365.89 | +23.4% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $513 | $365.89 | +34.4% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $365.45 | +25.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $398.25 | +7.5% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $415 | $406 | +8.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $502 | $392.22 | +31.6% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $415 | $401.34 | +8.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $392.86 | -21.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Sarah James | $300 | $392.86 | -21.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $390 | $350.08 | +2.2% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $327.54 | -34.7% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $320.88 | +11.4% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $320 | $305.42 | -16.1% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $344 | $300.86 | -9.8% | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $303.68 | -16.1% | May 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $310.55 | -12.2% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $441 | $310.55 | +15.6% | May 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $217 | $301.35 | -43.1% | May 15, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $295.35 | -33.4% | May 13, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $236.44 | -31.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $246 | $240.92 | -35.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $241.1 | -38.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $242.68 | -31.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $270 | $243.12 | -29.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $269 | $243.12 | -29.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $243.12 | -31.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $243.12 | -52.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $198.39 | -48.9% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $198.39 | -32.4% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $184.99 | -46.0% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $185.36 | -47.6% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | George Hill | $180 | $182.87 | -52.8% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $176.24 | -48.9% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Sarah James | $201 | $177.74 | -47.3% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $173.81 | -34.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $175.4 | -61.7% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $175.4 | -34.0% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $189 | $175.4 | -50.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $195.2 | -54.4% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $279.84 | -24.0% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $344 | $281.03 | -9.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $262 | $260.28 | -31.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $313 | $253.02 | -18.0% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $234 | $229.2 | -38.7% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $242.75 | -25.3% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $266.92 | -21.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $235 | $271 | -38.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $345 | $298.04 | -9.6% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $347 | $295.2 | -9.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $256.62 | -21.4% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $256.62 | -35.8% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $315 | $312 | -17.4% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $325 | $311.98 | -14.8% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $275 | $261.47 | -27.9% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $348 | $217.14 | -8.8% | Jul 18, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $280 | $241.45 | -26.6% | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $268 | $234.96 | -29.8% | Jun 12, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | George Hill | $248 | $287.64 | -35.0% | Dec 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | George Hill | $250 | $260.57 | -34.5% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $250 | $245.45 | -34.5% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $265 | $236.29 | -30.6% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $253 | $240.03 | -33.7% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Jessica Tassan | $274 | $239.32 | -28.2% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Kevin Fischbeck | $247 | $246.49 | -35.3% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $419 | $319.57 | +9.8% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Frank Morgan | $400 | $364.06 | +4.8% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $400 | $361.61 | +4.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $400 | $382.22 | +4.8% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Jessica Tassan | $392 | $355.8 | +2.7% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $370 | $349.55 | -3.0% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $370 | $315.98 | -3.0% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Frank Morgan | $353 | $315.98 | -7.5% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Sarah James | $360 | $315.98 | -5.7% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $310 | $351.45 | -18.8% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $474.1 | +46.8% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $581 | $484.71 | +52.3% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $476.57 | +50.7% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $620 | $486.02 | +62.5% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $492.54 | +63.8% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Nathan Rich | $652 | $528.9 | +70.9% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $615 | $558.3 | +61.2% | Nov 10, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $544 | $505.88 | +42.6% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $570 | $493.38 | +49.4% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $491.49 | +44.1% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $494 | $474.44 | +29.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $570 | $478.35 | +49.4% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $529 | $478.35 | +38.6% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $478.35 | +36.3% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $478.35 | +41.5% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $550 | $491.79 | +44.1% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $514 | $443 | +34.7% | May 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $512 | $457.31 | +34.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $541 | $442.3 | +41.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $443.37 | +40.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Kevin Caliendo | $520 | $453.97 | +36.3% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $490 | $451.33 | +28.4% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| UBS | Kevin Caliendo | $486 | $362.52 | +27.4% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Barclays | Steven Valiquette | $490 | $362.52 | +28.4% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Nathan Rich | $472 | $460.34 | +23.7% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Michael Wiederhorn | $510 | $452.06 | +33.7% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | A.J. Rice | $513 | $452.06 | +34.4% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Kevin Fischbeck | $530 | $452.06 | +38.9% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Steven Halper | $480 | $457.94 | +25.8% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gary Taylor | $479 | $415.01 | +25.5% | Sep 9, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Newshel | $450 | $424.06 | +17.9% | Aug 4, 2021 |
| Stephens | Scott Fidel | $500 | $423.34 | +31.0% | Aug 3, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Lisa Gill | $514 | $453.35 | +34.7% | Jul 9, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Justin Lake | $498 | $443.19 | +30.5% | Apr 26, 2021 |
Track every rating change on HUM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHumana Inc., a prominent health and well-being enterprise, operates across the United States through its various subsidiary companies. Its operational structure is divided into three main segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The firm provides a wide array of medical and supplementary insurance plans directly to individual consumers. Furthermore, Humana collaborates with government entities; it holds a contract with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to manage the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI NET) prescription drug program. The company also secures agreements with numerous states to deliver Medicaid, dual-eligible, and long-term care support benefits.…
Historical context
All HUM earningsHealthcare peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Get the HUM recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T08:56:06.580398+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T08:56:06.577449+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.