Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish517.3%
Neutral1758.6%
Bearish724.1%
Hormel Foods Corporation · HRL · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2025
Hormel’s sales growth met commodity-driven margin pressure
The supplied analysis provides partial support for a demand-led growth thesis: protein demand, brand innovation and operational initiatives supported sales, but commodity inflation materially weakened earnings conversion. The next test is whether pricing and Transform and Modernize benefits can offset input-cost and demand risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$11.14B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise
-12.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.03B
Consensus $2.98B
Revenue surprise
+1.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-13.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-13.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
5.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.0%
Up to 20 sessions
HRLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about HRL FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did HRL fall 13.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in HRL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for HRL after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter shifted the emphasis from broad-based sales growth to earnings conversion. Management reported 6% organic net sales growth, while unexpected commodity inflation of roughly 400 basis points pressured margins; pricing actions and continued operational improvements became more important to the near-term outlook.
Guidance delta
Maintained; Q4 adjusted EPS guidance was $0.38–$0.40.
Key takeaways
- Organic net sales grew 6%, with growth across retail, foodservice and international.
- Commodity inflation of roughly 400 basis points pressured margins and adjusted EPS.
- Transform and Modernize delivered operational progress, while pricing actions and brand innovation remain central to the outlook.
- The evidence is mixed for durable earnings growth: demand and execution helped the top line, but input costs constrained profitability.
Management priorities
- Continue Transform and Modernize projects
- Execute targeted pricing actions into Q4 and 2026
- Invest in brand renovation and product innovation
- Deploy FY2025 capital spending for capacity and technology
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$20.25Current
$23Low
$32.3Average
$54High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 19, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 30, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 3, 2023 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 8, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 21, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 25, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 24, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 27, 2018 |
| Vertical Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 6, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 6, 2018 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 17, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 16, 2018 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Nov 3, 2017 |
| KeyBanc | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | Dec 2, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2016 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 16, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Underweight | Hold | Downgrade | Apr 5, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 18, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 17, 2016 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 26, 2013 |
| Davenport | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $20.25. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $21.28 | +13.6% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $26 | $24.44 | +28.4% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $20.76 | +23.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $20.76 | +8.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $24.3 | +23.5% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $23.85 | +48.1% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $26 | $24.16 | +28.4% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $28 | $24.16 | +38.3% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $21.49 | +33.3% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $34 | $25.69 | +67.9% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $30.85 | +72.8% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $33 | $32.53 | +63.0% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Max Gumport | $28 | $32.19 | +38.3% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $30 | $31.01 | +48.1% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $37 | $31.25 | +82.7% | Aug 13, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $29 | $30.79 | +43.2% | May 30, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $35 | $35.47 | +72.8% | May 22, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $45.55 | +166.7% | Dec 30, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $47.04 | +132.1% | Dec 1, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.83 | +161.7% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.72 | +171.6% | Aug 23, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Michael Lavery | $49 | $46 | +142.0% | Dec 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on HRL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHormel Foods Corporation is a prominent global food company that specializes in the creation, preparation, and supply of a diverse array of meat, nut, and other culinary items. Its extensive clientele spans retail outlets, institutional food providers (foodservice), specialty delis, and various commercial enterprises across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are strategically structured into four main divisions: Grocery Products, Refrigerated Foods, Jennie-O Turkey Store, and International & Other. Hormel's product portfolio is broad, encompassing numerous perishable goods such as fresh meats, frozen food selections, convenient refrigerated meal options, a variety of sausages, hams, guacamole, and bacon. Additionally, it offers a wide range of non-perishable items, including canned luncheon meats, various nut butters, snack nuts, chili, microwave-ready meals, hashes, stews, tortillas, salsas, and tortilla chips.…
Historical context
All HRL earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the HRL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T14:50:41.776347+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T14:50:41.773568+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.