Generac Holdings Inc. · GNRC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Generac sees data-center momentum offsetting residential weakness

Generac's earnings analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: data-center demand, capacity expansion, and new products could drive growth, while residential weakness, execution requirements, and pilot conversion risk temper the outlook.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $12.08B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.61 Consensus $1.81
EPS surprise -11.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.09B Consensus $1.16B
Revenue surprise -6.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +17.9% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +18.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.1% Up to 20 sessions
GNRCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The quarter's analysis shifted attention toward commercial and industrial growth from data-center demand and significant capacity expansion. Residential shipments declined, but management described a path to mid-teens residential growth in 2026; the DOE Puerto Rico storage program is winding down.

Guidance delta

Management's guidance sentiment was raised. The supplied analysis does not include detailed guidance figures.

Key takeaways

  • Commercial and industrial sales grew 10% year over year, led by data-center demand, and are expected to expand more than 30% in 2026.
  • Residential home-standby shipments fell 25% in Q4, while management projects mid-teens growth in 2026 as outage activity normalizes and new products launch.
  • Capacity expansion and hyperscaler pilot programs support the longer-term data-center opportunity, but pilot conversion and execution remain unproven.

Management priorities

  • Expand megawatt-generator manufacturing capacity, including the additional Wisconsin facility.
  • Advance pilot programs with two hyperscalers and pursue the data-center backup opportunity.
  • Launch and scale next-generation home standby, PWRcell 2, and PowerMicro products.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
GNRC REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $1B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $885M Q1 '24 actual $889M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1,000M Q2 '24 actual $998M, miss Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $1B Q3 '25 actual $1B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $1B Q4 '25 actual $1B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy38 ratings
Bullish2873.7%
Neutral1026.3%
Bearish00.0%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$212.22Current
$75Low
$273.05Average
$461High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 18, 2026
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 17, 2026
Roth Capital Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 17, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 17, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 17, 2026
Show 34 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $212.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$280$207.23 +31.9%Sep 17, 2026
Roth CapitalAnalyst unavailable$250$209.81 +17.8%Sep 17, 2026
Raymond JamesTanner James$286$175.11 +34.8%Sep 17, 2026
Canaccord GenuityAnalyst unavailable$375$175.11 +76.7%Sep 17, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$333$175.11 +56.9%Sep 17, 2026
See 65 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Generac Holdings Inc. specializes in the engineering, manufacturing, and global distribution of diverse power generation systems, energy storage solutions, and related electrical products. The company caters to residential users, light commercial enterprises, and industrial sectors worldwide. At its core, Generac produces vital components such as engines, alternators, batteries, advanced electronic controls, and robust steel enclosures. For homeowners, the company provides a range of automatic standby generators, from 7.5kW up to 150kW, including air-cooled models (7.5kW-26kW) and more powerful liquid-cooled units (22kW-150kW). Many of these residential systems are compatible with Mobile Link, a remote monitoring platform. Generac also offers portable generators, spanning outputs from 800W to 17.5kW, alongside an extensive catalog of outdoor power equipment like trimmers, mowers, log splitters, and pressure washers.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T19:30:59.442125+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T19:30:59.439340+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.