First Solar, Inc. · FSLR · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

First Solar: backlog visibility meets policy and execution risks

The current analysis supports a mixed view: contracted demand, U.S. capacity expansion and technology initiatives provide support, while warranty exposure, tariffs, policy uncertainty and execution risks temper the outlook.

Reported After market closeNASDAQEnergy $18.55B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $4.81
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.48B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +6.4% Event window
SPY move +0.1% Same window
Abnormal move +6.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -19.4% Up to 20 sessions
FSLRSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior quarter, the analysis shifts from a maintained outlook with cautious tone and unresolved policy and warranty concerns to a current emphasis on demand visibility, U.S. manufacturing expansion and technology development, while those risks remain material.

Guidance delta

Current guidance was maintained, following the prior quarter's modestly lowered outlook; the supplied analysis does not identify a new current-quarter guidance change.

Key takeaways

  • Management emphasized contracted demand and continued U.S. manufacturing expansion.
  • CuRe, perovskite development and TOPCon licensing remain part of the growth framework.
  • The main near-term constraints are warranty exposure, tariffs, policy uncertainty and shipment timing.

Management priorities

  • Expand U.S. manufacturing capacity and manage domestic-versus-international product allocation.
  • Advance CuRe and perovskite technologies.
  • Continue TOPCon patent licensing and related research investment.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FSLR REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $1B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $720M Q1 '24 actual $794M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $940M Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $888M, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold73 ratings
Bullish4561.6%
Neutral2128.8%
Bearish79.6%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$171.8Current
$70Low
$244.07Average
$330High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 19, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 14, 2026
Truist Securities Buy HoldUpgradeOct 12, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainOct 8, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 30, 2026
Show 69 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $171.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesJulian Dumoulin-Smith$199$178.24 +15.8%Oct 16, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$259$179.08 +50.8%Oct 15, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$326$180.84 +89.8%Oct 14, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$270$177.82 +57.2%Oct 12, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$272$180.13 +58.3%Oct 8, 2026
See 132 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

First Solar, Inc. is a global provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions, operating in numerous international markets including the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, and Australia. The company's primary activity involves the engineering, manufacturing, and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which are designed to convert solar radiation directly into electricity. Its clientele is broad, serving system developers and operators, utility companies, independent power producers, commercial and industrial businesses, and various other system owners. Founded in 1999, the firm is based in Tempe, Arizona, and underwent a name change in 2006 from its former designation, First Solar Holdings, Inc.

Historical context

All FSLR earnings

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-11T00:01:39.744939+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-19T19:30:40.570508+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-19T19:30:40.567501+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-19. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.