Five Below, Inc. · FIVE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Five Below raises outlook as trend-led demand drives Q1 momentum

The supplied analysis provides evidence for the hypothesis that earnings growth and resilient demand can support the business over the next year: Q1 growth was strong, full-year sales guidance was raised, and management pointed to new stores, social-led demand, and merchandising execution. The counterevidence is that part of the quarter benefited from a nonrecurring tax-refund effect, while trend durability, tariffs, fuel costs, and marketing efficiency remain unresolved.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $12.57B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.22 Consensus $1.77
EPS surprise +25.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.29B Consensus $1.23B
Revenue surprise +4.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -13.8% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -14.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -8.2% Up to 20 sessions
FIVESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from a confident FY2026 plan to a higher full-year sales outlook after strong Q1 comparable growth. The current analysis also highlights AI-generated advertising content, integration of Five Beyond into the core assortment, and a one-time tax-refund benefit, while keeping store expansion, social marketing, pricing, and technology investment central to the plan.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year sales guidance to $5.4-$5.48 billion from the prior $5.2-$5.3 billion range and described a higher operating-margin outlook.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 sales rose 33% to $1.3 billion, while comparable sales increased 23%.
  • Management attributed momentum to trend-driven merchandising, social-first marketing, licensed products, and a simplified value proposition.
  • The company cited a strong inventory position ahead of summer and holiday periods, while noting that higher tax refunds provided a one-time Q1 benefit.
  • The growth case is supported by new stores, digital marketing, and expanded price points, but durability of trends and cost pressures remain key tests.

Management priorities

  • Continue new-store rollouts, including approximately 150 net new stores planned for FY2026.
  • Accelerate social and AI-driven marketing, creator partnerships, and customer-database development.
  • Expand higher price-point merchandise while preserving the value proposition.
  • Invest $230-$250 million in technology, infrastructure, and store upgrades.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FIVE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.24 Q3 '24 actual $0.26, beat Q4 '24 estimate $3.78 Q4 '24 actual $3.65, miss Q1 '25 estimate $0.63 Q1 '25 actual $0.60, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.54 Q2 '25 actual $0.54, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.83 Q1 '26 actual $0.86, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.62 Q2 '26 actual $0.81, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.25 Q3 '26 actual $0.68, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.00 Q4 '26 actual $4.31, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.77 Q1 '27 actual $2.22, beat Q2 '27 estimate $1.36 Q3 '27 estimate $1.12 Q4 '27 estimate $5.21 Q1 '28 estimate $2.05
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy48 ratings
Bullish3062.5%
Neutral1837.5%
Bearish00.0%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$227.41Previous close
$89Low
$240.29Average
$420High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 3, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 44 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $227.41. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Craig-HallumAnalyst unavailable$325$244.25 +42.9%Sep 3, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$297$241.65 +30.6%Sep 3, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$420$241.86 +84.7%Sep 3, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$401$241 +76.3%Sep 3, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$300$242.13 +31.9%Sep 3, 2026
See 127 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Five Below, Inc. operates as a prominent specialty discount retailer primarily serving the United States market. The company's diverse inventory spans a wide array of personal accessories, from fashionable novelty socks, sunglasses, and jewelry to scarves, gloves, hair accessories, and athletic apparel like tops, bottoms, and t-shirts. Shoppers can also find a comprehensive selection of beauty products, including nail polish, lip gloss, fragrances, and various branded cosmetics. For home and personal spaces, Five Below provides an assortment of items such as lamps, posters, picture frames, cozy fleece blankets, plush toys, pillows, candles, incense, and diverse lighting and novelty décor. This section also includes accent furniture and practical storage solutions. Athletic and recreational interests are covered with sports balls, team merchandise, and fitness essentials like hand weights, jump ropes, and gym balls.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-06-04T14:25:20.572460+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T07:01:05.246589+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T07:01:05.243811+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.