FedEx Corporation · FDX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2025

FedEx raises FY2026 EPS outlook as volume and automation gains offset freight risks

The quarter supports a constructive but conditional operating thesis: stronger domestic package and B2B demand, yield improvement, network automation and transformation savings are helping FedEx raise its outlook. The thesis remains exposed to LTL weakness, trade volatility, fleet disruption, incentive costs and spin-off execution.

Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials $68.53B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.82 Consensus $4.07
EPS surprise +18.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $23.50B Consensus $22.78B
Revenue surprise +3.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +0.6% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -0.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.3% Up to 20 sessions
FDXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management moved from maintaining to raising guidance, reported stronger revenue growth, and highlighted progress on Network2.0 automation. The update also added the MD-11 grounding headwind and further detail on the FedEx Freight spin-off and AI initiatives.

Guidance delta

Management raised adjusted FY2026 EPS guidance to $17.80-$19.00 from the prior-quarter range of $17.20-$19.00.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue grew 7% year over year, driven by U.S. domestic package volume and B2B business.
  • Adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $17.80-$19.00 as management cited margin expansion and transformation savings.
  • The MD-11 grounding created a $25 million operating-income headwind but was mitigated through network contingencies.
  • Network2.0 automation handled 24% of volume, with management targeting 65% before peak.
  • FedEx Freight's spin-off remains on track, while LTL weakness and trade-policy volatility remain material risks.

Management priorities

  • Complete the FedEx Freight spin-off and monetize the retained 19.9% stake.
  • Scale Network2.0 automation to 65% of volume before peak and pursue a 30% footprint reduction by FY2027.
  • Expand the global AI training program and launch logistics-intelligence products.
  • Grow healthcare, data-center and cold-chain verticals internationally.
  • Continue strategic collaborations, including the ServiceNow partnership.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FDX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $4.18 Q2 '24 actual $3.99, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.45 Q3 '24 actual $3.86, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.35 Q4 '24 actual $5.41, beat Q1 '25 estimate $4.76 Q1 '25 actual $3.60, miss Q4 '25 estimate $5.82 Q4 '25 actual $6.07, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3.60 Q1 '26 actual $3.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.07 Q2 '26 actual $4.82, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.34 Q3 '26 actual $5.25, beat Q4 '26 estimate $5.91 Q4 '26 actual $6.31, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3.63 Q2 '27 estimate $6.32 Q3 '27 estimate $4.31 Q4 '27 estimate $5.35
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2859.6%
Neutral1634.0%
Bearish36.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$287.47Current
$155Low
$289.73Average
$479High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Evercore ISI Group In Line In LineMaintainSep 9, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 8, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainJun 25, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJun 24, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJun 24, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $287.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$350$314.13 +21.8%Sep 9, 2026
Raymond JamesPatrick Tyler Brown$330$331.41 +14.8%Aug 28, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$165$329.44 -42.6%Jun 26, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$365$316.83 +27.0%Jun 25, 2026
BernsteinDavid Vernon$397$315.12 +38.1%Jun 24, 2026
See 138 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T20:21:04.151660+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T20:21:04.148709+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.