Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1737.8%
Neutral2453.3%
Bearish48.9%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Essex Property Trust, Inc. · ESS · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
ESS raises 2026 property-growth outlook as Northern California leads
The quarter supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient West Coast rental demand, limited supply, stronger Northern California rent growth, and raised property-growth guidance support earnings durability. The thesis remains dependent on new-lease momentum, regional demand, interest expense, supply, and California regulation.
Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate
$17.61B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.52
Consensus $1.47
EPS surprise
+3.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$491.7M
Consensus $491.0M
Revenue surprise
+0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
ESSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ESS FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ESS fall 4.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in ESS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ESS after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, full-year same-property revenue and NOI guidance were raised to 2.9% and 3%, respectively. Northern California blended rent growth increased to 7.3%, new-lease rates improved sequentially, and ESS added a 474-unit East Bay asset. The company also executed roughly $600 million of interest-rate swaps at a 4.9% fixed rate, with the analysis projecting a $0.09-$0.12 increase in next year’s interest expense.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year same-property revenue growth guidance to 2.9% and NOI growth guidance to 3%. The supplied analysis also says the company beat core FFO expectations.
Key takeaways
- Northern California led performance with 7.3% blended rent growth; Seattle and Southern California showed modest improvement.
- New-lease rates rose 20 basis points from Q2 to Q3, while occupancy was in the low 90s and renewals in the mid-4% range.
- ESS closed a 474-unit East Bay acquisition priced above $200 million at a mid-5% yield and remains focused on disciplined capital allocation.
Management priorities
- Pursue additional high-yield, low-cost acquisitions, including in the East Bay.
- Advance the South Linden development and Mountain View entitlement pipeline.
- Use disciplined capital allocation, preferred equity, lending opportunities, and rate hedges to support FFO and NAV per share growth.
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Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$261.42Current
$250Low
$303.53Average
$375High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 16, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 21, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | May 15, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2022 | |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 23, 2022 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 19, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2019 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2019 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 20, 2018 |
| Capital One Financial | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 22, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 8, 2018 |
| Capital One | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 16, 2016 |
| Zelman | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 12, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 10, 2015 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 3, 2015 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 8, 2015 |
| McNicoll Lewis Vlak | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 20, 2013 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 5, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 7, 2013 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 4, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $261.42. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $271.88 | +9.0% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $326 | $271.57 | +24.7% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $299 | $269.07 | +14.4% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $272.5 | +12.1% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Ami Probandt | $286 | $275.73 | +9.4% | Sep 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $278.61 | +12.8% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $286.1 | +24.3% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Richard Anderson | $316 | $288.1 | +20.9% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $281.86 | +26.2% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $303 | $284.39 | +15.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $292.75 | $296.8 | +12.0% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $297 | $294.01 | +13.6% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $352 | $293.83 | +34.6% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $293.83 | +26.2% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $296 | $297.48 | +13.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $307 | $293.76 | +17.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $320 | $285.57 | +22.4% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $302 | $283.42 | +15.5% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $276.91 | +10.9% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $308 | $284.78 | +17.8% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $285.42 | +13.2% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $295 | $272.64 | +12.8% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $286 | $278.81 | +9.4% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $266.83 | +12.1% | May 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $282 | $269.75 | +7.9% | May 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Goldsmith | $278 | $269.94 | +6.3% | May 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $277 | $263.55 | +6.0% | May 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $263.35 | +11.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $263.35 | +18.6% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $288 | $262.58 | +10.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $272 | $255.37 | +4.0% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $278 | $250.96 | +6.3% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $249.14 | +11.7% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | John Kim | $280 | $256.95 | +7.1% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Goldsmith | $274 | $251.06 | +4.8% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $256.89 | +10.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $273 | $254.66 | +4.4% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Linda Tsai | $282 | $259.34 | +7.9% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $290 | $260.25 | +10.9% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $261.2 | +8.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $271 | $247.64 | +3.7% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $255.86 | +6.7% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $280 | $255.86 | +7.1% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $267.66 | +14.8% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $297 | $266.22 | +13.6% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $283 | $251.68 | +8.3% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $309 | $257.36 | +18.2% | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $320 | $284.46 | +22.4% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $309 | $284.47 | +18.2% | May 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | John Kim | $310 | $270.06 | +18.6% | Jan 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $302 | $270.06 | +15.5% | Jan 9, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Dennerlein | $321 | $309.65 | +22.8% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Julien Blouin | $318 | $302.69 | +21.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mike Lewis | $294 | $294.62 | +12.5% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $355 | $296.09 | +35.8% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $315 | $273.38 | +20.5% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $285 | $277.2 | +9.0% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Robert Stevenson | $266 | $252.91 | +1.8% | May 30, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Amanda Sweitzer | $264 | $259.4 | +1.0% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $250 | $260.56 | -4.4% | May 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $255 | $243.5 | -2.5% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mike Lewis | $259 | $241.41 | -0.9% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $265 | $237.6 | +1.4% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Robert Stevenson | $250 | $232.66 | -4.4% | Feb 28, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Simon Yarmak | $250 | $239.05 | -4.4% | Jul 18, 2023 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $240 | $212.27 | -8.2% | Apr 18, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $208 | $204.18 | -20.4% | Mar 31, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $218.26 | +2.1% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $220.94 | -13.5% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $219.35 | -7.4% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $214.57 | -5.5% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $211 | $210.46 | -19.3% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $210.47 | -3.6% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $286.83 | +23.9% | Aug 22, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $261.75 | +4.4% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $299 | $259.44 | +14.4% | Jun 24, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $352 | $277.36 | +34.6% | Jun 9, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $323 | $279.9 | +23.6% | May 25, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $339.77 | +43.4% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Jordan Sadler | $371 | $345.64 | +41.9% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $338 | $338.03 | +29.3% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Joseph | $370 | $348.22 | +41.5% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Simon Yarmak | $390 | $340.79 | +49.2% | Dec 7, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Anthony Paolone | $363 | $338.24 | +38.9% | Dec 6, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Tammi Fique | $345 | $340.97 | +32.0% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $381 | $330.83 | +45.7% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chandni Luthra | $325 | $324.77 | +24.3% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $390 | $330.07 | +49.2% | Sep 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ESS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationEssex Property Trust, Inc., a prominent S&P 500 constituent, operates as a vertically integrated real estate investment trust (REIT). The company focuses on the purchase, construction, renovation, and ongoing management of residential apartment complexes across select West Coast regions.
Historical context
All ESS earningsReal Estate peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -12.9% | -1.1% | W.P. Carey raises AFFO outlook as investment pipeline expands |
| BXP BXP, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +40.9% | +1.7% | BXP raises 2026 FFO outlook as occupancy reaches 89.4% |
| JLL Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +12.0% | JLL reports record Q3, raises outlook and announces $500 million ASR |
| AMT American Tower Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | 0.0% | -2.4% | American Tower raises outlook as CoreSite and tower demand remain resilient |
Latest beats and misses
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- TERFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+9.6% EPS-3.7% move
Get the ESS recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-28T19:08:01.251828+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-28T01:23:13.546025+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-28T20:00:42.058314+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-28T20:00:42.055778+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.