DraftKings Inc. · DKNG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

DraftKings pairs record Q4 with a major Predictions push

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis for DraftKings, but with important execution conditions: strong reported momentum and early Predictions demand may support growth, while regulation, promotional intensity, cannibalization, and liquidity determine whether that growth translates into durable margins.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $9.60B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.36 Consensus $0.36
EPS surprise 0.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.99B Consensus $1.99B
Revenue surprise -0.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -13.5% Event window
SPY move +0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -13.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +14.4% Up to 20 sessions
DKNGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, DraftKings moved from preparing to launch Predictions and a Spanish-language app to reporting strong early Predictions demand, outlining market-making and Railbird plans, and highlighting first positive GAAP net income for fiscal 2025.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance while emphasizing disciplined investment in Predictions, state expansion, and market-making.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes record Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, with growth across Sportsbook, Fantasy, iGaming, and Lottery.
  • Predictions was presented as a major growth opportunity, with early demand supported by AI, market-making, and the planned Railbird integration.
  • Management highlighted cash generation, share repurchases, and technology-led margin expansion.
  • The main debate is whether Predictions and expansion can scale without regulatory, promotional, or liquidity pressures.

Management priorities

  • Scale Predictions, including additional states and a dedicated market-making division.
  • Integrate Railbird and continue using AI and proprietary technology to improve product, pricing, marketing, and margins.
  • Pursue state expansion and disciplined marketing while continuing share repurchases as adjusted EBITDA grows.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DKNG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.06 Q4 '23 actual $-0.10, miss Q1 '24 estimate $-0.29 Q1 '24 actual $-0.30, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.01 Q2 '24 actual $0.12, beat Q3 '24 estimate $-0.42 Q3 '24 actual $-0.60, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.15 Q2 '25 actual $0.38, beat Q3 '25 estimate $-0.43 Q3 '25 actual $-0.26, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.36 Q4 '25 actual $0.36, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.22 Q1 '26 actual $0.20, miss Q2 '26 estimate $0.02 Q2 '26 actual $-0.14, miss Q3 '26 estimate $-0.34 Q4 '26 estimate $0.46 Q1 '27 estimate $0.16
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy48 ratings
Bullish3572.9%
Neutral918.8%
Bearish48.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$18.59Current
$15Low
$42.47Average
$105High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 1, 2026
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainSep 24, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 18, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 18, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 43 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $18.59. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSRobin Farley$48$22.58 +158.2%Sep 18, 2026
BernsteinIan Moore$29$24.21 +56.0%Sep 3, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$40$23.44 +115.2%Sep 2, 2026
CBREAnalyst unavailable$27$25.03 +45.2%Aug 21, 2026
Truist FinancialBarry Jonas$29$24.85 +56.0%Aug 10, 2026
See 169 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

DraftKings Inc. operates as a leading digital enterprise specializing in sports entertainment and gaming. The company provides sophisticated multi-channel sports betting and gaming technology solutions to operators across 17 countries, facilitating diverse entertainment experiences. Directly, DraftKings manages its own iGaming services under the DraftKings brand in five U.S. states, and separately operates Golden Nugget Online Gaming, another iGaming offering, in three states. Its Sportsbook platform is accessible for both mobile and physical wagers in 18 U.S.…

Historical context

All DKNG earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T00:46:07.058364+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T00:46:07.055564+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.