Capital One Financial Corporation · COF-PN · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Capital One: Integration advances as credit performance improves

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong profitability, improving credit performance, and progress on Discover and Brex integration provide support, while integration execution, loan-growth recovery, liquidity, and capital considerations remain important constraints.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $115.63B market cap
85quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.81 Consensus $4.79
EPS surprise +21.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.85B Consensus $15.76B
Revenue surprise +0.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

Ask FN2 about COF-PN FY2026 Q2

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis points to improved credit metrics and higher net interest margin, while Discover and Brex integration moved forward. Liquidity and cash declined as funds were deployed toward loan growth and Brex-related uses; technology, AI, and marketing investment remained a priority.

Guidance delta

Maintained; no change in guidance sentiment was identified in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 profitability remained strong, with adjusted EPS of $5.81 in the supplied analysis.
  • Credit loss provisions fell 27% year over year, while net interest margin improved modestly.
  • Discover and Brex integration milestones are progressing, alongside continued technology, AI, and marketing investment.

Management priorities

  • Complete the Discover technology migration and continue phased back-book conversion
  • Scale Brex marketing and data-pipeline integration
  • Invest in technology, AI, network acceptance, and targeted marketing while maintaining capital strength

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF-PN EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $1.84, None Q1 '24 actual $3.34, None Q2 '24 actual $1.56, None Q3 '24 actual $4.56, None Q2 '25 estimate $4.05 Q2 '25 actual $-8.46, miss Q3 '25 estimate $4.49 Q3 '25 actual $4.99, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4.14 Q4 '25 actual $3.86, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.50 Q1 '26 actual $4.42, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.79 Q2 '26 actual $5.81, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.50 Q3 '26 actual $6.69, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.78 Q1 '27 estimate $5.73 Q2 '27 estimate $5.81 Q3 '27 estimate $6.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1542.9%
Neutral1542.8%
Bearish514.3%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2023
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2023
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 2, 2023
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
Stephens & Co. Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
Show 30 more rating actions

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation functions as a holding company for its banking subsidiaries, Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association. These entities deliver a wide array of financial products and services to customers across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The organization structures its operations into three primary divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. It collects deposits through various account types, including checking, money market, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW), savings, and time deposits.…

Historical context

All COF-PN earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
SYF-PA Synchrony Financial FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.7% — Synchrony reaffirms FY EPS outlook as digital partnerships expand
SYF Synchrony Financial FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.7% -1.2% Synchrony Maintains $9.50 EPS Guidance as Payment Rates Rise
SYF-PB Synchrony Financial FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.7% — Synchrony posts record volume while payment rates pressure margins
COF-PI Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — — Capital One posts strong Q3 as Discover synergies build
MSCI MSCI Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — +5.0% MSCI: AI-led product momentum offsets ongoing Climate pressure
COF-PL Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — — Capital One Q3: Integration Synergies and Marketing Investment

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-22T14:05:17.775472+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-08-26T01:23:15.088209+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.