Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1541.7%
Neutral1644.4%
Bearish513.9%
CME Group Inc. · CME · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
CME Group Q2: Record Revenue, Robust Product Pipeline, CFTC Overhang
CME Group delivered record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.71B (+1.4% vs consensus) and EPS of $2.99 (+2.7% surprise), with near-historical daily contract volume driven by 94% institutional participation. The stock surged 5.0% on the print with continued positive drift of +4.3% afterward. Management maintained guidance and outlined a robust product pipeline: 24/7 crypto and gold futures, Single Stock futures, Compute Futures tied to NVIDIA H100 GPU rental costs, and Treasury Link for Q4 2026. Market-data revenue grew 20% YoY. The primary overhang is ongoing CFTC litigation, with the agency's response expected in August, creating uncertainty around 24/7 and perpetual futures offerings. The bullish score moderated to 78 from 88 last quarter, reflecting regulatory uncertainty and the absence of a capex outlook. With analyst consensus at $304 versus a current price of $260, the market is weighing…
Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services
$94.21B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad spectrum of underlying assets, such as interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, alongside fixed-income products.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.99
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+2.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.71B
Consensus $1.68B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$260Current
$151Low
$255.17Average
$330High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 9, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 10, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Feb 25, 2021 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 19, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2016 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 8, 2015 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 21, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 14, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | May 21, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
| BGB Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 26, 2012 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2012 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $260. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $330 | $252.8 | +26.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $243.61 | +13.5% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $237.46 | +24.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $260 | $236.6 | +0.0% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $320 | $248.12 | +23.1% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $329 | $267.85 | +26.5% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $323 | $263.8 | +24.2% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $353 | $282.44 | +35.8% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $316 | $285.71 | +21.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $362 | $294.82 | +39.2% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $297.38 | +19.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $302 | $300.42 | +16.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $294.62 | +30.8% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $312 | $294.62 | +20.0% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $319 | $273.41 | +22.7% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $320 | $269.09 | +23.1% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $272.42 | +16.9% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $314 | $269.5 | +20.8% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $280 | $267.81 | +7.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $269.59 | +15.4% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O'Shaughnessy | $307 | $271.45 | +18.1% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $263.6 | +7.7% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $264.46 | +20.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| UBS | Alex Kramm | $285 | $261.78 | +9.6% | Sep 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $298 | $277.18 | +14.6% | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick O'Shaughnessy | $287 | $254.57 | +10.4% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Owen Lau | $258 | $227.43 | -0.8% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $231 | $227.14 | -11.2% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Christopher Allen | $250 | $223.57 | -3.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $235 | $218.47 | -9.6% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Craig Siegenthaler | $177 | $215.74 | -31.9% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $193 | $198.92 | -25.8% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Patrick Moley | $225 | $199.38 | -13.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $209 | $197.25 | -19.6% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| UBS | Alex Kromm | $250 | $203.78 | -3.8% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Andrew Bond | $187 | $212.59 | -28.1% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $228 | $212.59 | -12.3% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $210 | $212.21 | -19.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $198 | $174.76 | -23.8% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $176.93 | -24.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $171.12 | -3.8% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $194.69 | -19.2% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $205.46 | -34.2% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $202.14 | -18.5% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $198.24 | -16.9% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $195.34 | -7.7% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $198.5 | -13.1% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $195.99 | -16.2% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $201.51 | -6.9% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $203.55 | -18.1% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $233 | $204.36 | -10.4% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $204.36 | -5.4% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $204.36 | -9.6% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Simon Clinch | $235 | $200.43 | -9.6% | Jun 10, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $204.68 | -0.8% | Jun 3, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $190.15 | -19.2% | May 19, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Stephen Biggar | $230 | $200.1 | -11.5% | May 16, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $223 | +7.7% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $223.03 | -0.4% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $225.93 | -2.3% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Alex Kromm | $269 | $237.46 | +3.5% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Daniel Fannon | $258 | $221.8 | -0.8% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Eoin Mullany | $190 | $215.65 | -26.9% | Nov 2, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Richard Repetto | $230 | $192.18 | -11.5% | Oct 1, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Kenneth Hill | $151 | $197.42 | -41.9% | Apr 29, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $208 | $194.79 | -20.0% | Apr 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CME the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.3%
Up to 20 sessions
CMESPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Revenue of $1.71B beat consensus by 1.4% with EPS of $2.99 (+2.7% surprise). Sequentially, revenue declined from Q1's $1.9B, reflecting typical seasonality. New product launches announced: Single Stock futures (next week with 35 retail broker partners), Compute Futures (NVIDIA H100 GPU rental index with Silicon Data as price-reporting agency), and Treasury Link (Q4 2026, linking Treasury futures and cash liquidity pools). Perpetual futures face little institutional demand and CME is not listing them. Market-data revenue grew 20% YoY on pricing changes and expanded broker partnerships. Bullish score moderated to 78 from 88, and capex outlook was not mentioned (vs. increasing in Q1). CFTC litigation continues with a response expected in August.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained from the prior quarter. Management did not raise or lower forward expectations but expressed confidence in the growth trajectory driven by the product pipeline and institutional demand. Capex outlook was not mentioned this quarter, compared to an increasing outlook in Q1.
Key takeaways
- Q2 2026 revenue of $1.71B beat consensus by 1.4%; EPS of $2.99 beat by 2.7%.
- Record daily contract volume with 94% institutional participation underscores core franchise strength.
- Product pipeline includes Single Stock futures, Compute Futures (NVIDIA H100 GPU rental index), and Treasury Link for Q4 2026.
- Market-data revenue grew 20% YoY, supported by pricing changes and expanded broker partnerships.
- Perpetual futures face little institutional demand; CME is not planning to list them at this time.
- CFTC litigation is ongoing with the agency's response expected in August.
Management priorities
- Launch Single Stock futures next week with 35 retail broker partners.
- Introduce Compute Futures later in 2026 with Silicon Data as price-reporting agency.
- Roll out Treasury Link in Q4 2026 for atomic spread execution between Treasury futures and cash.
- Continue 24/7 trading for crypto futures and gold contracts.
- Expand retail broker partnerships to broaden product distribution.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedBX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Blackstone Beats on AI-Driven Inflows, AUM Hits Record $1.35 TrillionCB · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Chubb Q2 2026: EPS Beats Estimates, Revenue Misses Amid Pricing Softness
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-22T16:07:34.539522+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T04:51:58.572103+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T04:51:58.570162+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.