Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy58 ratings
Bullish5086.2%
Neutral712.1%
Bearish11.7%
Alibaba Group Holding Limited · BABA · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2025
Alibaba: AI growth accelerates as investment weighs on profitability
The supplied analysis supports a mixed test of the growth thesis for Alibaba: resilient AI and cloud demand is evident, but the near-term earnings and cash-flow cost of scaling AI and quick commerce is substantial.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$265.57B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.61
Consensus $0.66
EPS surprise
-7.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$34.80B
Consensus $41.85B
Revenue surprise
-16.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.9%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.4%
Up to 20 sessions
BABASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about BABA FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did BABA fall 2.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in BABA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for BABA after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied analysis shows faster cloud AI growth and the launch of the Qwen consumer AI assistant, alongside a sharper profitability trade-off: quick-commerce investment contributed to a 78% adjusted EBITA decline and free cash flow turned negative.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a change to guidance.
Key takeaways
- Cloud AI revenue grew 34% year over year, while AI products posted triple-digit growth.
- Quick commerce revenue rose 60%, but adjusted EBITA fell 78% amid heavy investment.
- Total revenue increased 15% year over year, while net income fell 53%.
- The Qwen AI assistant exceeded 10 million downloads in its first week of public beta.
- Free cash flow was a RMB 21.8 billion outflow as investment increased.
Management priorities
- Accelerate AI infrastructure investment and expand AI model capabilities.
- Scale the Qwen consumer AI app and embed AI across e-commerce services.
- Improve quick-commerce unit economics and integrate the business with core e-commerce platforms.
- Expand external cloud customer outreach and deepen AI product offerings.
Follow BABA with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$109.22Current
$83.89Low
$173.36Average
$310High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Feb 24, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2024 |
| DZ Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 19, 2023 |
| US Tiger Securities, Inc | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Nomura Instinet | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| BOCOM International | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 18, 2022 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| CMB International | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 31, 2022 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 24, 2021 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 1, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 4, 2021 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 26, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 26, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 18, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 4, 2019 |
| Vertical Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2019 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 13, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2018 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 14, 2018 |
| Standpoint Research | Reduce | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2017 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2016 |
| Daiwa Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2016 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2016 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 8, 2016 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 28, 2015 |
| Pacific Crest | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 13, 2015 |
| Axiom Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2015 |
| TH Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 6, 2015 |
| Summit Research Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $109.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Robin Zhu | $165 | $113.24 | +51.1% | Sep 7, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $130.53 | +46.5% | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $130.53 | +83.1% | Aug 21, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $108.97 | +55.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $102.57 | +60.2% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $141.13 | +69.4% | May 15, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $130.83 | +91.4% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $127.96 | +70.3% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Arete Research | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $162.33 | +74.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $225 | $146.79 | +106.0% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Roman Lukianchikov | $140 | $151.78 | +28.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Arete Research | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $158.13 | +57.5% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $158.02 | +78.5% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $157.01 | +74.0% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $156.3 | +78.5% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Analyst unavailable | $218.8 | $157.04 | +100.3% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $160.66 | +78.5% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $166.67 | +78.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.68 | +83.1% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $174 | $176.44 | +59.3% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $162.65 | +74.0% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $178 | $143.93 | +63.0% | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Arete Research | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $138.55 | +39.2% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Jason Helfstein | $159 | $136.4 | +45.6% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $135 | +48.3% | Aug 31, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Robin Zhu | $160 | $135 | +46.5% | Aug 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $165 | $135 | +51.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Fawne Jiang | $176 | $123.46 | +61.1% | May 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Gary Yu | $180 | $132.55 | +64.8% | May 14, 2025 |
| Arete Research | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $132.51 | +50.2% | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $110 | $98 | +0.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $137 | $110.14 | +25.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Gary Yu | $115 | $108.85 | +5.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Alicia Yap | $136 | $107.33 | +24.5% | Sep 30, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Shyam Patil | $130 | $83.18 | +19.0% | Aug 19, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Alex Yao | $108 | $83.72 | -1.1% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $88 | $79.54 | -19.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Alicia Yap | $122 | $81.35 | +11.7% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $116 | $73.28 | +6.2% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rob Sanderson | $115 | $79.83 | +5.3% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $110 | $80.32 | +0.7% | May 15, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $92 | $79.51 | -15.8% | May 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Gary Yu | $85 | $72.88 | -22.2% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $95 | $71.48 | -13.0% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ronald Keung | $105 | $70.78 | -3.9% | Feb 8, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Robin Zhu | $100 | $95.72 | -8.4% | Aug 11, 2023 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $142 | $99.21 | +30.0% | Aug 11, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $145 | $94.92 | +32.8% | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Shyam Patil | $160 | $83.07 | +46.5% | May 23, 2023 |
| HSBC | Carson Lo | $83.89 | $85.77 | -23.2% | May 19, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $130 | $88.34 | +19.0% | May 15, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Gary Yu | $150 | $100.72 | +37.3% | Mar 29, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $114.88 | +29.1% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $110.83 | +46.5% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Jerry Liu | $135 | $89.13 | +23.6% | Dec 30, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $120 | $75.88 | +9.9% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $84.26 | +13.5% | Nov 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $84.26 | +31.8% | Nov 18, 2022 |
| US Tiger Securities | Bo Pei | $110 | $84.26 | +0.7% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Leo Chiang Chiang | $160 | $96.6 | +46.5% | Aug 30, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Robin Zhu | $130 | $104.75 | +19.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| HSBC | Charlene Liu | $141 | $109.21 | +29.1% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ronald Keung | $167 | $109.57 | +52.9% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $116 | +57.5% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $145 | $93.21 | +32.8% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| US Tiger Securities | Bo Pei | $130 | $92.5 | +19.0% | May 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $94.48 | +61.1% | May 27, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ronald Keung | $158 | $93.41 | +44.7% | May 27, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Colin Sebastian | $144 | $87.23 | +31.8% | May 24, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $132 | $87.69 | +20.9% | May 19, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $160 | $101.21 | +46.5% | May 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Jerry Liu | $140 | $95.49 | +28.2% | Apr 15, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $276 | $103.53 | +152.7% | Apr 10, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Alicia Yap | $177 | $103.53 | +62.1% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Alicia Yap | $200 | $112.99 | +83.1% | Mar 27, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $144 | $105.19 | +31.8% | Feb 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $170 | $105.19 | +55.7% | Feb 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Kenneth Fong | $179 | $105.19 | +63.9% | Feb 27, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Eddie Leung | $193 | $107.94 | +76.7% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| UBS | Jerry Liu | $150 | $107.94 | +37.3% | Feb 25, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $180 | $108.93 | +64.8% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $180 | $115.23 | +64.8% | Jan 29, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Scott Devitt | $150 | $113.37 | +37.3% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Aaron Kessler | $200 | $127.74 | +83.1% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $247 | $137.41 | +126.2% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| CMB International Securities | Sophie Huang | $181.6 | $128.3 | +66.3% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Nomura | Jialong Shi | $173 | $128.3 | +58.4% | Jan 9, 2022 |
| Hovde Group | Alex Yao | $180 | $129.81 | +64.8% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Daiwa | John Choi | $170 | $117.81 | +55.7% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| CLSA | Elinor Leung | $250 | $117.81 | +128.9% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| Atlantic Equities | James Cordwell | $140 | $122.98 | +28.2% | Dec 21, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Hans Chung | $200 | $144.2 | +83.1% | Oct 1, 2021 |
| China Renaissance Securities (US) Inc. | Ella Ji | $230 | $152.39 | +110.6% | Sep 28, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rob Sanderson | $250 | $165.41 | +128.9% | Sep 13, 2021 |
| DZ BANK AG | Manuel Muhl | $190 | $199.28 | +74.0% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $300 | $200.71 | +174.7% | Aug 4, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Vitus Leung | $281 | $209.51 | +157.3% | Jul 13, 2021 |
| US Tiger Securities | Bo Pei CFA | $310 | $208 | +183.8% | Jul 7, 2021 |
Track every rating change on BABA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAlibaba Group Holding Limited, through its various subsidiaries, furnishes crucial technological infrastructure and extensive marketing channels. This comprehensive support allows merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to effectively engage with their customer base, both within the People's Republic of China and across international markets. The company's operations are organized across seven primary segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao (its logistics network), Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company's extensive digital ecosystem features premier online retail platforms like Taobao and Tmall. Wholesale business-to-business transactions are facilitated through 1688.com and Alibaba.com. Globally, it operates retail platforms such as AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz. For fresh goods and groceries, it offers Freshippo, and Tmall Global specializes in import e-commerce.…
Historical context
All BABA earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +10.0% | -0.7% | Nike’s performance categories grow as resets weigh on FY27 outlook |
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.9% | +13.4% | Carnival posts record Q3 as demand and efficiency offset fuel costs |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -3.0% | Darden reaffirms FY2027 outlook as brands deliver mixed comp growth |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.6% | +3.3% | AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan |
| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | — | Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | -4.1% | Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the BABA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T18:30:43.558331+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T18:30:43.555286+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.