Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish2596.2%
Neutral13.8%
Bearish00.0%
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. · AXSM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Axsome rallies ~9% on AUVELITY Alzheimer's approval; lifts peak-sales view to $8B
Axsome is a commercial-stage CNS biotech whose bull case rests on a newly expanded AUVELITY franchise. Management said revenue grew 57% YoY on 59% AUVELITY sales growth, the FDA approved AUVELITY for Alzheimer's disease agitation, and peak-sales guidance was raised to at least $8B. The thesis is that a second validated indication plus a much larger sales force and better payer coverage can sustain the growth trajectory, with a cash position of $305M funding the pipeline through cash-flow positivity. That view is not without offsetting pressure: EPS of -$1.26 missed the -$0.85 estimate, elevated launch SG&A weighs on near-term profitability, and the Alzheimer's ramp is unproven at scale.
Reported Before market openNASDAQHealthcare
$10.09B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-1.26
Consensus $-0.85
EPS surprise
-48.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$189.4M
Consensus $190.9M
Revenue surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+8.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+8.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.7%
Up to 20 sessions
AXSMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AXSM FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AXSM rise 8.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in AXSM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AXSM after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The stock rose ~8.7% on the event session versus a -0.4% benchmark move, on volume ~3.2x baseline, but has since drifted lower. The quarter featured a headline EPS miss (-$1.26 vs -$0.85 est) alongside 57% YoY revenue growth and the FDA approval of AUVELITY for Alzheimer's disease agitation. Management raised the AUVELITY peak-sales estimate to at least $8B, submitted an NDA for AXS-12, and guided to a June commercial launch for the new Alzheimer's indication.
Guidance delta
Raised. Management lifted its AUVELITY peak-sales estimate to at least $8 billion, citing roughly equal expected contribution from major depressive disorder and the newly approved Alzheimer's disease agitation indication.
Key takeaways
- Revenue jumped 57% YoY, with AUVELITY net sales up 59%; EPS of -$1.26 missed the -$0.85 estimate
- FDA approved AUVELITY for Alzheimer's disease agitation (breakthrough therapy, priority review)
- Management raised the AUVELITY peak-sales estimate to at least $8B
- Sales force expanded to ~630 reps for AUVELITY and 150 for SYMBRAVO
- Pipeline advancing: Phase III trials for AXS-20, AXS-05 smoking cessation, solriamfetol indications, and FORWARD for AXS-14
- Cash of $305M expected to fund operations into cash-flow positivity
Management priorities
- Commercial launch of AUVELITY for Alzheimer's agitation beginning in June
- Expanding the sales force and improving payer coverage (AUVELITY 86% of lives, SYMBRAVO 57%)
- Advancing Phase III programs: AXS-20 (schizophrenia), AXS-05 (smoking cessation), AXS-14 (fibromyalgia), solriamfetol indications
- NDA submission for AXS-12 (cataplexy in narcolepsy)
- Searching for an outside-US partner to commercialize AUVELITY internationally
Follow AXSM with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$195.09Current
$25Low
$225.31Average
$380High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2024 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 23, 2022 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 1, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2021 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 30, 2019 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 18, 2019 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 19, 2017 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 17, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $195.09. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Srikripa Devarakonda | $285 | $203.1 | +46.1% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Graig Suvannavejh | $316 | $215.77 | +62.0% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Leonid Timashev | $297 | $219 | +52.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $251 | $221.21 | +28.7% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Ami Fadia | $268 | $220.89 | +37.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $220.89 | +41.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $220.89 | +31.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Malcolm Hoffman | $310 | $221.64 | +58.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Leonid Timashev | $304 | $242.6 | +55.8% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Tsai | $380 | $246.34 | +94.8% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Hoang | $280 | $230.1 | +43.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $230.11 | +24.0% | May 5, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $230.63 | +36.9% | May 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Leonid Timashev | $302 | $231 | +54.8% | May 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Brian Skorney | $246 | $223.7 | +26.1% | May 5, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $223.7 | +48.6% | May 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $223.34 | +43.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Yatin Suneja | $260 | $227.31 | +33.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $258 | $227.26 | +32.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $227.39 | +39.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Tsai | $275 | $227.92 | +41.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Hoang | $281 | $227.35 | +44.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Raghuram Selvaraju | $270 | $206.53 | +38.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $201.03 | +28.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $207.75 | +11.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $179.26 | +32.8% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $168.35 | +13.8% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $251 | $170.81 | +28.7% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $174.76 | +6.1% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $174.76 | +12.8% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $174.76 | +3.5% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Rudy Li | $230 | $174.76 | +17.9% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Joon Lee | $200 | $173.55 | +2.5% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $173.9 | +10.2% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $184.74 | +17.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Leonid Timashev | $219 | $184.5 | +12.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $177.27 | +33.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $174.14 | +14.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $175.98 | +7.1% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $176.82 | -1.1% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $170.69 | +4.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $175.14 | +27.1% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Needham | Ami Fadia | $225 | $178.69 | +15.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Raghuram Selvaraju | $200 | $178.69 | +2.5% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Yatin Suneja | $205 | $179.14 | +5.1% | Jan 2, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Graig Suvannavejh | $217 | $182.86 | +11.2% | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Jay Olson | $220 | $182.64 | +12.8% | Dec 31, 2025 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $134.11 | -5.2% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $198 | $133.5 | +1.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $133.81 | +0.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $135.75 | -19.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Sean Laaman | $194 | $127.94 | -0.6% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $163 | $123.47 | -16.4% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Joel Beatty | $162 | $112.16 | -17.0% | May 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Graig Suvannavejh | $216 | $121.77 | +10.7% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $127.15 | -18.0% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Graig Suvannavejh | $137 | $107.43 | -29.8% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Joon Lee | $190 | $107.43 | -2.6% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Joel Beatty | $132 | $107.43 | -32.3% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Yatin Suneja | $135 | $99.49 | -30.8% | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Graig Suvannavejh | $106 | $90.58 | -45.7% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Cerena Chen | $140 | $88.86 | -28.2% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Raghuram Selvaraju | $180 | $83.21 | -7.7% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Gerberry | $106 | $83.93 | -45.7% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Leonid Timashev | $131 | $84.85 | -32.9% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Leonid Timashev | $130 | $72.24 | -33.4% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | David Amsellem | $115 | $75.19 | -41.1% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vikram Purohit | $115 | $74.14 | -41.1% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Graig Suvannavejh | $109 | $79.17 | -44.1% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Joel Beatty | $108 | $72.54 | -44.6% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $73.34 | -61.6% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| BTIG | Robert Hazlett | $98 | $75.13 | -49.8% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $74.95 | -55.9% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $74.74 | -56.4% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $55.48 | -59.0% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Joon Lee | $150 | $59.03 | -23.1% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $34.04 | -74.9% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $30.59 | -86.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Joon Lee | $90 | $30.98 | -53.9% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ashwani Verma | $25 | $23.78 | -87.2% | Aug 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on AXSM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAxsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative treatments for a range of central nervous system (CNS) disorders within the United States. Its robust product pipeline features several promising candidates, including: AXS-05, an investigational therapy currently being developed for major depressive disorder and treatment-resistant depression. This compound is also in Phase III clinical evaluation for Alzheimer's disease agitation and has successfully finished Phase II trials investigating its use for smoking cessation.…
Historical context
All AXSM earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.7% | -14.7% | CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue |
| MDT Medtronic plc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +1.5% | Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the AXSM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-26T00:01:10.411520+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-26T00:01:10.408657+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.