Axon Enterprise, Inc. · AXON · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Axon raises growth outlook as AI and counter-drone demand accelerate

Axon’s Q2 evidence supports a constructive growth case: management described accelerating AI and counter-drone demand, strong international bookings, and raised full-year revenue guidance. The durability of that trajectory still depends on converting event- and contract-driven demand into recurring deployments while controlling privacy, component-cost, and supply-chain risks.

Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials $36.44B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.88 Consensus $1.84
EPS surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $904.4M Consensus $876.4M
Revenue surprise +3.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +0.4% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +0.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -16.8% Up to 20 sessions
AXONSPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, revenue-growth guidance moved from 30–32% to 32–34%, while adjusted EBITDA margin guidance stayed around 25.5%. The Q2 analysis also highlighted stronger international bookings, quarterly Dedrone revenue above $100 million, and continued rapid AI expansion.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year revenue-growth guidance to 32–34%; adjusted EBITDA margin guidance remained approximately 25.5%.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue reached $904 million, up 35% year over year, while ARR was $1.6 billion and net revenue retention was 126%.
  • Management said AI Era Plan growth was approximately 700% year over year and quarterly Dedrone revenue exceeded $100 million.
  • International bookings were roughly three times prior-year levels, with strong TASER demand and continued body-camera replacement activity.
  • The next phase depends on scaling AI and counter-drone products while managing privacy, component-cost, and supply-chain risks.

Management priorities

  • Scale the AI Era Plan and real-time translation internationally.
  • Expand Dedrone and counter-drone offerings through partnerships and broader deployments.
  • Continue Axon 911 platform expansion, including Prepared and Carbyne integration.
  • Strengthen AI data-access monitoring and privacy safeguards.
  • Support international sales and the body-camera and TASER replacement cycles.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AXON EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.86 Q4 '23 actual $1.12, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.94 Q1 '24 actual $1.15, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.02 Q2 '24 actual $1.20, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.20 Q3 '24 actual $1.45, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.45 Q2 '25 actual $2.12, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.52 Q3 '25 actual $1.17, miss Q4 '25 estimate $1.60 Q4 '25 actual $2.15, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.60 Q1 '26 actual $1.61, match Q2 '26 estimate $1.84 Q2 '26 actual $1.88, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.93 Q4 '26 estimate $2.28 Q1 '27 estimate $2.20
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish1881.8%
Neutral418.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$456.95Current
$300Low
$663.7Average
$900High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 6, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 6, 2026
Show 17 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $456.95. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$600$506.98 +31.3%Sep 3, 2026
Morgan StanleyMeta Marshall$640$528.41 +40.1%Aug 6, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$715$561.47 +56.5%Aug 6, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$732$551.4 +60.2%Aug 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$688$609.49 +50.6%Aug 6, 2026
See 33 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Axon Enterprise, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, was previously known as TASER International, Inc. until its rebranding in April 2017. The company specializes in the development, production, and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs) marketed under its well-known TASER brand, catering to both domestic and international clients. Axon's operations are divided into two primary segments: TASER, and Software and Sensors. In addition to its signature TASER devices, such as the TASER 7, X26P, X2, and consumer models, along with their corresponding cartridges, Axon offers an extensive portfolio of hardware and cloud-based software.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-06T02:08:28.331962+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T15:50:51.973251+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T15:50:51.970482+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.