Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold40 ratings
Bullish1640.0%
Neutral2357.5%
Bearish12.5%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. · AVB · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
AvalonBay Beats Q1 on Expense Timing and Buyback, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance
AvalonBay Communities delivered a substantial Q1 2026 EPS beat of $2.33 versus the $1.27 estimate, an 83.5% surprise, while revenue of $705.3M fell 8.3% short of the $768.8M consensus. The EPS outperformance was driven by expense timing advantages, higher development NOI, and a $200M share repurchase completed at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range that was not part of the original 2026 outlook. Operational fundamentals remain solid: occupancy above 96%, turnover at its lowest level since 2009 (low 30% range), and leasing velocity of 32 units per month in lease-up communities. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing strong demand, low new supply in established markets, and a $4.2B development pipeline with $3.5B already underway. The key question for investors is whether the Q1 beat from non-recurring expense timing and buybacks is repeatable, or whether core rent growth…
Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate
$27.34B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationAt the close of 2020, AvalonBay Communities held a direct or indirect ownership stake in a substantial portfolio encompassing 291 apartment communities. These properties collectively contained 86,025 residential units across 11 states and the District of Columbia. Among these, 18 communities were actively under development, and one was undergoing redevelopment. As an equity REIT, AvalonBay's primary activities involve the development, redevelopment, acquisition, and management of apartment communities. The company strategically targets prominent metropolitan areas such as New England, the New York/New Jersey metro region, the Mid-Atlantic states, the Pacific Northwest, and both Northern and Southern California. Furthermore, AvalonBay is expanding its presence into key growth markets, specifically Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.33
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+83.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$705.3M
Consensus $768.8M
Revenue surprise
-8.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$187.78Current
$172Low
$217.69Average
$307High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Colliers Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 24, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Zelman & Assoc | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2024 | |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 15, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 23, 2022 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2020 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 16, 2019 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 21, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 8, 2018 |
| Zelman | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 9, 2018 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Nov 10, 2015 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2014 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 28, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 25, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $187.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $191.44 | +4.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $191.84 | +11.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $191.84 | +9.2% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.53 | +9.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $189.68 | +3.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $184.48 | +7.6% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $192 | $186.85 | +2.2% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $198 | $190.3 | +5.4% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Andrew Rosivach | $209 | $182.51 | +11.3% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $195 | $184.83 | +3.8% | May 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $182.85 | +9.2% | May 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $187 | $185.52 | -0.4% | May 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Goldsmith | $189 | $185.99 | +0.6% | May 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $184.08 | +8.1% | May 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $183.45 | +1.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $183.5 | +0.1% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $172.38 | +9.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $201 | $177.32 | +7.0% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $173.14 | -0.9% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $173.83 | -2.5% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $171.61 | -0.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Omotayo Okusanya | $172 | $182.42 | -8.4% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $182.42 | +8.1% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $176.8 | +15.6% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $179.5 | +1.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $179 | $180.48 | -4.7% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Colliers Securities | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $181.52 | +3.8% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $205 | $179.65 | +9.2% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $180.41 | +15.0% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $180.68 | +1.7% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $197 | $174.52 | +4.9% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $204 | $171.54 | +8.6% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $173.92 | +1.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $184.53 | +14.0% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $193.17 | +9.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $229 | $193.56 | +22.0% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $236 | $206.18 | +25.7% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $228 | $205.58 | +21.4% | May 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $223 | $213.8 | +18.8% | Jan 24, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Linda Tsai | $240 | $219.97 | +27.8% | Jan 1, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $234 | $225.25 | +24.6% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | John Paul Flangos | $250 | $229.36 | +33.1% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $230 | $219.92 | +22.5% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $244 | $221.73 | +29.9% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $255 | $211.78 | +35.8% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $222 | $203.88 | +18.2% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $213 | $203.89 | +13.4% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $207 | $193.96 | +10.2% | May 24, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $213 | $198.14 | +13.4% | May 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Marie Ferguson | $212 | $190.07 | +12.9% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $197 | $164.38 | +4.9% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $167.97 | -0.4% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $174.18 | -0.4% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $201.98 | +17.2% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $205.08 | +25.1% | Sep 15, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $218.81 | +32.1% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $217.85 | +28.9% | Aug 11, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $214.13 | +19.3% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $195.46 | +9.2% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $191.4 | +11.8% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $195.15 | +12.9% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $203.97 | +19.8% | May 25, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $200.8 | +26.7% | May 19, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | John Kim | $285 | $250.08 | +51.8% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| BTIG | James Sullivan | $307 | $244.46 | +63.5% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Anthony Powell | $263 | $246.45 | +40.1% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Austin Wurschmidt | $275 | $249.52 | +46.4% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Joseph | $260 | $244.99 | +38.5% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Tammi Fique | $265 | $235.42 | +41.1% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $240 | $229.88 | +27.8% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chandni Luthra | $257 | $222.84 | +36.9% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $233 | $219.35 | +24.1% | Sep 13, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $220 | $223.02 | +17.2% | Jul 28, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Richard Anderson | $210 | $185.25 | +11.8% | Apr 19, 2021 |
Track every rating change on AVB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+5.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.5%
Up to 20 sessions
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 EPS of $2.33 came in 83.5% above the $1.27 estimate, driven by expense timing benefits and higher development NOI. Revenue of $705.3M fell 8.3% short of the $768.8M estimate. $200M of share repurchases were completed at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range, not in the original 2026 outlook. Turnover fell to the low 30% range, the lowest since 2009. Leasing velocity in lease-up communities rose to 32 units per month with average lease terms exceeding 15 months. Occupancy held above 96%.
Guidance delta
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, maintaining its 2% blended rent-change outlook. No upward revision was made despite the Q1 beat, reflecting caution that expense timing benefits may not repeat and peak leasing season performance remains critical to meeting targets. Capex outlook is increasing with $800M of planned 2026 development starts.
Key takeaways
- Q1 outperformance stemmed from expense timing advantages and higher development NOI, not from accelerated rent growth.
- Occupancy held above 96% with turnover at its lowest since 2009, supporting pricing power.
- Leasing velocity in lease-up communities reached 32 units per month, well above historical averages.
- $200M of share repurchases at an implied cap rate in the low 6% range provided an EPS tailwind not in the original outlook.
- The $4.2B development pipeline targets roughly 6.3% initial stabilized yields, with $55M of incremental NOI targeted by year-end.
- Full-year guidance was reaffirmed despite the beat.
Management priorities
- Target $55M of incremental NOI by year-end (Horizon 1) and $80M in subsequent years (Horizon 2).
- Proceed with $800M of planned 2026 development starts, focusing on high-yield projects.
- Expand AI-driven resident services and digital self-service platforms.
- Continue opportunistic asset sales and share repurchases while preserving balance-sheet flexibility.
- Leverage the developer funding program to accelerate third-party development deals.
Related earnings events
Real EstateSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T17:41:32.147040+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T17:41:32.144265+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.