Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold40 ratings
Bullish1640.0%
Neutral2357.5%
Bearish12.5%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. · AVB · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
AvalonBay lowers FFO outlook as demand and expenses soften
The quarter weakens the near-term growth case: management lowered core FFO guidance amid softer demand and higher expenses. Longer-term support comes from the development pipeline, liquidity, and technology initiatives, but execution and regional demand remain key tests.
Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate
$26.28B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.75
Consensus $2.81
EPS surprise
-2.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$764.9M
Consensus $766.4M
Revenue surprise
-0.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.9%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.1%
Up to 20 sessions
AVBSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AVB FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AVB fall 0.9% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in AVB's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AVB after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management's tone shifted from confident to cautious, guidance sentiment moved from maintained to lowered, and concerns around demand softness and operating expenses became more prominent.
Guidance delta
Lowered: full-year core FFO guidance was cut to $11.25 per share.
Key takeaways
- Management cited softer demand and slower rent growth in the Mid-Atlantic and Los Angeles.
- The company highlighted more than $3 billion of liquidity and low leverage.
- A $3 billion development pipeline remains focused on future earnings and cash-flow growth.
- Technology initiatives target incremental NOI, while share repurchases continue.
Management priorities
- Advance the development pipeline and target approximately $1 billion of new development starts in 2026.
- Continue the share repurchase program with $500 million of additional authorization.
- Advance AvalonConnect and other technology initiatives to improve NOI.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$184.06Previous close
$172Low
$217.69Average
$307High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Aug 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Colliers Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 24, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Zelman & Assoc | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2024 | |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 15, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 23, 2022 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2020 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 16, 2019 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 21, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 2, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 8, 2018 |
| Zelman | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 9, 2018 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Nov 10, 2015 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2014 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 28, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 25, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $184.06. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $191.44 | +6.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $191.84 | +14.1% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $191.84 | +11.4% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.53 | +11.4% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $189.68 | +5.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $184.48 | +9.7% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $192 | $186.85 | +4.3% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $198 | $190.3 | +7.6% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Andrew Rosivach | $209 | $182.51 | +13.5% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $195 | $184.83 | +5.9% | May 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $182.85 | +11.4% | May 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $187 | $185.52 | +1.6% | May 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Goldsmith | $189 | $185.99 | +2.7% | May 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $184.08 | +10.3% | May 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $183.45 | +3.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $183.5 | +2.1% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $172.38 | +11.9% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $201 | $177.32 | +9.2% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $173.14 | +1.1% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $173.83 | -0.6% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $171.61 | +1.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Omotayo Okusanya | $172 | $182.42 | -6.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $182.42 | +10.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $176.8 | +17.9% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $179.5 | +3.8% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $179 | $180.48 | -2.7% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Colliers Securities | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $181.52 | +5.9% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $205 | $179.65 | +11.4% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $180.41 | +17.4% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $180.68 | +3.8% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $197 | $174.52 | +7.0% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $204 | $171.54 | +10.8% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $173.92 | +3.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $184.53 | +16.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $193.17 | +11.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Richard Hightower | $229 | $193.56 | +24.4% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $236 | $206.18 | +28.2% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $228 | $205.58 | +23.9% | May 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $223 | $213.8 | +21.2% | Jan 24, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Linda Tsai | $240 | $219.97 | +30.4% | Jan 1, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Heffern | $234 | $225.25 | +27.1% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | John Paul Flangos | $250 | $229.36 | +35.8% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $230 | $219.92 | +25.0% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $244 | $221.73 | +32.6% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $255 | $211.78 | +38.5% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | James Feldman | $222 | $203.88 | +20.6% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $213 | $203.89 | +15.7% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Lewis | $207 | $193.96 | +12.5% | May 24, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $213 | $198.14 | +15.7% | May 14, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Marie Ferguson | $212 | $190.07 | +15.2% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $197 | $164.38 | +7.0% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $167.97 | +1.6% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $174.18 | +1.6% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $201.98 | +19.5% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $205.08 | +27.7% | Sep 15, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $218.81 | +34.7% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $217.85 | +31.5% | Aug 11, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $214.13 | +21.7% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $195.46 | +11.4% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $191.4 | +14.1% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $195.15 | +15.2% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $203.97 | +22.2% | May 25, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $200.8 | +29.3% | May 19, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | John Kim | $285 | $250.08 | +54.8% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| BTIG | James Sullivan | $307 | $244.46 | +66.8% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Anthony Powell | $263 | $246.45 | +42.9% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Austin Wurschmidt | $275 | $249.52 | +49.4% | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Joseph | $260 | $244.99 | +41.3% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Tammi Fique | $265 | $235.42 | +44.0% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Steve Sakwa | $240 | $229.88 | +30.4% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Chandni Luthra | $257 | $222.84 | +39.6% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Scotiabank | Nicholas Yulico | $233 | $219.35 | +26.6% | Sep 13, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Goldfarb | $220 | $223.02 | +19.5% | Jul 28, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Richard Anderson | $210 | $185.25 | +14.1% | Apr 19, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAt the close of 2020, AvalonBay Communities held a direct or indirect ownership stake in a substantial portfolio encompassing 291 apartment communities. These properties collectively contained 86,025 residential units across 11 states and the District of Columbia. Among these, 18 communities were actively under development, and one was undergoing redevelopment. As an equity REIT, AvalonBay's primary activities involve the development, redevelopment, acquisition, and management of apartment communities. The company strategically targets prominent metropolitan areas such as New England, the New York/New Jersey metro region, the Mid-Atlantic states, the Pacific Northwest, and both Northern and Southern California. Furthermore, AvalonBay is expanding its presence into key growth markets, specifically Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado.
Historical context
All AVB earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
Get the AVB recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T21:20:54.235082+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T21:20:54.232112+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.