Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish1950.0%
Neutral1847.4%
Bearish12.6%
Aon plc · AON · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Aon Q1 2026: 5% Organic Growth, 70bps Margin Expansion, AI Productivity Gains Accelerate
Aon's Q1 2026 results confirm the three-by-three plan remains on track. Organic revenue grew 5% YoY, adjusted operating margin expanded 70bps to 39.1%, and free cash flow surged 332% YoY. AI-driven productivity tools and the Aon Business Services platform are delivering measurable efficiency gains, while data-center insurance capacity expanded by $1 billion to $3.5 billion. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance and returned $500 million to shareholders via buybacks alongside a 10% dividend increase.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$81.43B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationAon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments. The company offers commercial risk solutions comprising retail and insurance brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting, captives management, and affinity programs; health solutions, such as consulting and brokerage, consumer benefits, and talent advisory services; and wealth solutions, including retirement consulting and investments.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$6.48
Consensus $6
EPS surprise
+1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.03B
Consensus $4.97B
Revenue surprise
+1.2%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$381.26Previous close
$245Low
$388.11Average
$448High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 27, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 3, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 13, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Oct 31, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2021 |
| William Blair | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 15, 2019 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 21, 2017 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Stifel | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 4, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 10, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $381.26. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $377 | $358.89 | -1.1% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $355.17 | +16.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $426 | $357.51 | +11.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $383 | $359.29 | +0.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $382 | $356.91 | +0.2% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $357.46 | -0.3% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $329.51 | -5.6% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $335.31 | -6.9% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $360 | $324.78 | -5.6% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $370 | $321.15 | -3.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $388 | $311.51 | +1.8% | May 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $394 | $318.03 | +3.3% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $398 | $349.61 | +4.4% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $408 | $351.99 | +7.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $412 | $351.99 | +8.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $349.64 | +1.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $443 | $349.64 | +16.2% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $387 | $344.59 | +1.5% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $393 | $344.59 | +3.1% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $448 | $350.49 | +17.5% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $381 | $349.92 | -0.1% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $349.92 | +3.6% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $436 | $344.63 | +14.4% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $353.71 | +4.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $389 | $353.71 | +2.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $379 | $344.17 | -0.6% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $390 | $340.8 | +2.3% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $435 | $339.42 | +14.1% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $427 | $354.64 | +12.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $440 | $363.81 | +15.4% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $352.91 | +10.2% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Daniel Sykes | $445 | $396.14 | +16.7% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $380 | $365.64 | -0.3% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $390 | $371.71 | +2.3% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $377 | $371.84 | -1.1% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $365 | $353.97 | -4.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $394 | $348.55 | +3.3% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $335 | $323 | -12.1% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $323 | $323 | -15.3% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $338 | $323 | -11.3% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $296 | $293.16 | -22.4% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $287 | $293.49 | -24.7% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $325 | $293.58 | -14.8% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $315 | $283.14 | -17.4% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $312 | $282.08 | -18.2% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $320.45 | -10.8% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $363 | $315.87 | -4.8% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $339 | $306.14 | -11.1% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $308.89 | -5.6% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $302.05 | -33.1% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $310 | $280.78 | -18.7% | May 2, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $292 | $273.45 | -23.4% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Phil Stefano | $245 | $250.95 | -35.7% | May 25, 2021 |
Track every rating change on AON the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.9%
Up to 20 sessions
AONSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Organic growth moderated from FY 2025's 6% pace to 5% in Q1 2026, while margin expansion continued at 70bps. AI productivity metrics became more concrete: invoicing cycle time was cut 50%, certificates of insurance handling time reduced 95%, and policy check time reduced 95%. Data-center insurance capacity grew by $1 billion to $3.5 billion with the pipeline targeting approximately 3x prior-year levels. Free cash flow grew 332% YoY, enabling $500 million in share repurchases and a 10% dividend increase. Tuck-in acquisitions totaled $349 million in the quarter.
Guidance delta
Management reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance for mid-single-digit organic growth, 70-80bps margin expansion, strong EPS growth, and $4.3 billion in free cash flow. The outlook is unchanged from the FY 2025 report provided last quarter. Guidance sentiment: maintained.
Key takeaways
- Organic revenue grew 5% YoY, driven by commercial risk, data-center demand, and health solutions.
- Adjusted operating margin expanded 70bps to 39.1% thanks to AI-enabled efficiency gains.
- Free cash flow grew 332% YoY, enabling $500M in share repurchases and a 10% dividend increase.
- Data-center insurance capacity increased by $1B to $3.5B, with pipeline targeting ~3x prior-year levels.
- Management reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance: mid-single-digit organic growth, 70-80bps margin expansion, and $4.3B free cash flow.
Management priorities
- Complete $1.3 billion investment in talent and technology by year-end 2026.
- Scale next-generation AI tools across Commercial Risk, Health, and other lines.
- Grow data-center insurance pipeline to approximately 3x prior-year levels.
- Pursue $350 million+ in tuck-in acquisitions in 2026.
- Maintain dividend growth trajectory and target at least $1 billion of share repurchases for the year.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T09:51:54.587989+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T09:51:54.585274+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.