Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish1950.0%
Neutral1847.4%
Bearish12.6%
Aon plc · AON · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Aon Maintains 2026 Outlook as AI Tools and M&A Support Growth
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: Aon's growth and margin trajectory is supported by talent, scalable AI-enabled tools, NFP integration and emerging data-center opportunities, while property-rate pressure, talent competition and M&A execution remain material checks.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$58.71B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.85
Consensus $4.75
EPS surprise
+2.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.30B
Consensus $4.38B
Revenue surprise
-1.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.4%
Up to 20 sessions
AONSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AON FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AON rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in AON's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AON after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis reports FY2025 execution, a maintained 2026 outlook, broader emphasis on Broker Copilot and Claims Copilot, and a larger stated capital base supporting repurchases and middle-market M&A.
Guidance delta
The supplied analysis says 2026 guidance remains mid-single-digit organic growth, 70–80 basis points of margin expansion, strong EPS growth and $4.3 billion of free cash flow; guidance sentiment is maintained.
Key takeaways
- FY2025 performance showed 6% organic revenue growth and 90 basis points of margin expansion.
- Management highlighted AI-enabled tools, Aon Business Services and talent hiring as growth enablers.
- Data-center risk capital, insurance-linked securities and middle-market expansion remain strategic opportunities.
Management priorities
- Scale Broker Copilot and Claims Copilot globally.
- Complete the AAU restructuring program in 2026 and pursue its stated savings objective.
- Advance middle-market acquisitions through NFP and expand cap-bond capacity.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$276.77Current
$245Low
$384.9Average
$445High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 13, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Oct 31, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2021 |
| William Blair | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 15, 2019 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 21, 2017 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| Stifel | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 4, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 10, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $276.77. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $366 | $304.67 | +32.2% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $423 | $327.48 | +52.8% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $360 | $321.03 | +30.1% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $321.52 | +37.3% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $433 | $321.52 | +56.4% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $349 | $321.52 | +26.1% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $383 | $321.52 | +38.4% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $343.2 | +48.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $387 | $360.55 | +39.8% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $361.22 | +51.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $391 | $377.16 | +41.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $377 | $358.89 | +36.2% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $355.17 | +60.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $426 | $357.51 | +53.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $383 | $359.29 | +38.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $382 | $356.91 | +38.0% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $357.46 | +37.3% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $329.51 | +30.1% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $335.31 | +28.3% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $360 | $324.78 | +30.1% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $370 | $321.15 | +33.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $388 | $311.51 | +40.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $394 | $318.03 | +42.4% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $398 | $349.61 | +43.8% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $408 | $351.99 | +47.4% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $412 | $351.99 | +48.9% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $349.64 | +39.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $443 | $349.64 | +60.1% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $387 | $344.59 | +39.8% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $393 | $344.59 | +42.0% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $448 | $350.49 | +61.9% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $381 | $349.92 | +37.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $349.92 | +42.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $436 | $344.63 | +57.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $353.71 | +44.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $389 | $353.71 | +40.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $379 | $344.17 | +36.9% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $390 | $340.8 | +40.9% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $435 | $339.42 | +57.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $427 | $354.64 | +54.3% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $440 | $363.81 | +59.0% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $352.91 | +51.8% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Daniel Sykes | $445 | $396.14 | +60.8% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $380 | $365.64 | +37.3% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $390 | $371.71 | +40.9% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $377 | $371.84 | +36.2% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $365 | $353.97 | +31.9% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $394 | $348.55 | +42.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $335 | $323 | +21.0% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $323 | $323 | +16.7% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $338 | $323 | +22.1% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $296 | $293.16 | +6.9% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $287 | $293.49 | +3.7% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $325 | $293.58 | +17.4% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $315 | $283.14 | +13.8% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $312 | $282.08 | +12.7% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $320.45 | +22.8% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $363 | $315.87 | +31.2% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $339 | $306.14 | +22.5% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $308.89 | +30.1% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $302.05 | -7.9% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $310 | $280.78 | +12.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $292 | $273.45 | +5.5% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Phil Stefano | $245 | $250.95 | -11.5% | May 25, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments. The company offers commercial risk solutions comprising retail and insurance brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting, captives management, and affinity programs; health solutions, such as consulting and brokerage, consumer benefits, and talent advisory services; and wealth solutions, including retirement consulting and investments.…
Historical context
All AON earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
Get the AON recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T05:16:10.427993+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T05:16:10.424941+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.