Allegion plc · ALLE · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Allegion raises EPS outlook as non-residential demand stays strong

The current analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of Allegion's operating trajectory: strong Americas non-residential demand, electronics growth, and raised EPS guidance support the case, while tariff exposure, residential weakness, international decline, and acquisition integration argue against treating the trajectory as risk-free.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $13.07B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.04 Consensus $1.99
EPS surprise +2.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.02B Consensus $1.00B
Revenue surprise +2.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.0% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +6.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.2% Up to 20 sessions
ALLESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from maintained to raised guidance, reported revenue above $1 billion, and emphasized five acquisitions plus expanded electronics and SaaS activity. The risk discussion remains centered on tariffs, residential demand, international performance, and integration.

Guidance delta

Management raised 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $8.00-$8.15 from the prior-quarter maintained outlook.

Key takeaways

  • Current analysis points to 5.8% year-over-year revenue growth, led by non-residential demand in the Americas.
  • Electronics and software offerings, including FORTLOX and recent SaaS acquisitions, are central to the growth plan.
  • The main counterweights are tariff and pricing uncertainty, residential softness, international organic decline, and acquisition integration.

Management priorities

  • Expand electronic locks, battery-less cylinders, and software-as-a-service offerings
  • Complete the planned Australian API business divestiture
  • Maintain dividend and share-repurchase programs
  • Pursue strategic acquisitions in mechanical, electronic, and SaaS areas

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ALLE REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $902M Q4 '23 actual $897M, miss Q1 '24 estimate $888M Q1 '24 actual $894M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $954M Q2 '24 actual $966M, beat Q3 '24 estimate $940M Q3 '24 actual $967M, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1B Q3 '25 actual $1B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1B Q4 '25 actual $1B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '27 estimate $1B Q2 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold23 ratings
Bullish834.8%
Neutral1565.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$153.67Current
$115Low
$148.33Average
$190High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 10, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 24, 2026
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 24, 2026
B of A Securities Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 24, 2026
Longbow Research Buy NeutralUpgradeJun 11, 2026
Show 18 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $153.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Evercore ISIAlexander Virgo$180$151.36 +17.1%Sep 22, 2026
Robert W. BairdTimothy Wojs$170$154.57 +10.6%Jul 24, 2026
Morgan StanleyChristopher Snyder$142$129.03 -7.6%Jun 3, 2026
Robert W. BairdTimothy Wojs$165$137.86 +7.4%Apr 29, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$180$161.84 +17.1%Jan 7, 2026
See 11 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International. The company offers door controls, door control system, and exit devices; doors, glass and door systems, and accessories; electronic security products and access control systems, including time, attendance, and workforce productivity; and locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems. It also provides services and software, such as inspection, maintenance, and repair services for its automatic entrance solutions; software as a service, including access control, platform integration, and workforce management solutions; and ongoing aftermarket services, and design…

Historical context

All ALLE earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T03:00:43.627339+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T03:00:43.624058+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.