Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · AJG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

AJG: Growth, M&A and AI Efficiency Support a Positive Outlook

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view of AJG's growth trajectory: strong Q4 growth, continued acquisitions, expected margin expansion, and AI-enabled efficiency gains support the case for durable earnings growth. The thesis remains dependent on integration execution, pricing trends, and management's ability to convert its acquisition pipeline and planned synergies.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $58.60B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.38 Consensus $2.35
EPS surprise +1.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.59B Consensus $3.60B
Revenue surprise -0.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +1.4% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +1.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -8.1% Up to 20 sessions
AJGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shows stronger reported Q4 growth, additional acquisition revenue, a larger stated deal cadence, and a more specific role for AI in claims and back-office efficiency. Guidance remained maintained, while questions about pricing, integration, and margins continue.

Guidance delta

Management's 2026 guidance was maintained; the analysis cites expected organic broker-segment growth of approximately 5.5% and margin expansion of 40–60 basis points.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 revenue grew more than 30% year over year, with 5% organic growth across segments, according to the transcript analysis.
  • M&A added approximately $145 million of annualized revenue in Q4, while the pipeline included more than 40 term sheets representing about $350 million of annualized revenue.
  • Management highlighted 40–60 basis points of expected 2026 margin expansion and $160 million–$280 million of synergies by 2028.
  • AI is being applied to claims and back-office processes as an efficiency tool, while management said it is not intended to replace producers.

Management priorities

  • Complete the Assured Partners integration and achieve targeted synergies.
  • Maintain an acquisition pipeline targeting 50–75 deals per year.
  • Expand AI tools across claims, underwriting, and back-office functions.
  • Pursue construction insurance opportunities tied to digital-infrastructure development and expand employee-benefits consulting.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AJG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3.41 Q1 '24 actual $3.49, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.24 Q2 '24 actual $2.26, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.26 Q3 '24 actual $2.26, match Q2 '25 estimate $2.36 Q2 '25 actual $2.33, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2.51 Q3 '25 actual $2.32, miss Q4 '25 estimate $2.35 Q4 '25 actual $2.38, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4.43 Q1 '26 actual $4.47, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.81 Q2 '26 actual $2.84, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.02 Q4 '26 estimate $2.83 Q1 '27 estimate $4.95
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy29 ratings
Bullish1965.5%
Neutral931.0%
Bearish13.5%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$231.82Current
$145Low
$276.44Average
$334High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 24, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 24, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 16, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 17, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 4, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 3, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainJul 31, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 31, 2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJul 31, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 9, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 7, 2026
Jefferies Buy HoldUpgradeJun 11, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform Market PerformUpgradeMar 24, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainDec 17, 2025
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainOct 31, 2025
B of A Securities Underperform UnderperformMaintainOct 10, 2024
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainAug 13, 2024
Raymond James Market Perform Strong BuyDowngradeDec 12, 2023
Deutsche Bank Hold HoldMaintainMay 18, 2021
Credit Suisse Neutral OutperformDowngradeJan 11, 2021
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainJun 18, 2020
CFRA Hold HoldMaintainMay 20, 2020
Keefe Bruyette & Woods Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 1, 2016
William Blair Market Perform UnderweightUpgradeMar 21, 2016
Sandler O'Neill Buy HoldUpgradeApr 10, 2014
Compass Point Buy NeutralUpgradeApr 2, 2014
Macquarie Outperform NeutralUpgradeJan 28, 2014
Bank of America Buy NeutralUpgradeJan 31, 2013
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $231.82. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$285$227.45 +22.9%Sep 25, 2026
Wells FargoElyse Greenspan$291$229.64 +25.5%Sep 24, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$292$248.04 +26.0%Sep 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyBob Huang$290$248.36 +25.1%Aug 19, 2026
Argus ResearchKevin Heal$300$253.32 +29.4%Aug 17, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$270$247.3 +16.5%Aug 10, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$299$249.42 +29.0%Aug 3, 2026
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$287$256.46 +23.8%Jul 31, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$276$253.83 +19.1%Jul 15, 2026
RBC CapitalRowland Mayor$300$256.39 +29.4%Jul 13, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$300$253 +29.4%Jul 9, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$287$256.61 +23.8%Jul 9, 2026
UBSBrian Meredith$291$253.52 +25.5%Jul 8, 2026
BarclaysAlex Scott$292$249.77 +26.0%Jul 7, 2026
Morgan StanleyBob Huang$255$252.44 +10.0%Jul 6, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$265$220.14 +14.3%Jun 11, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$250$212.52 +7.8%Jun 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$240$203.61 +3.5%May 21, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$265$202.19 +14.3%May 7, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$225$216.1 -2.9%May 1, 2026
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$211$206.4 -9.0%May 1, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$259$219.12 +11.7%Apr 13, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$226$216.51 -2.5%Feb 23, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$283$249.37 +22.1%Feb 2, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$271$250.75 +16.9%Jan 30, 2026
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$249$245.84 +7.4%Jan 30, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$298$245.84 +28.5%Jan 30, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesYaron Kinar$277$257 +19.5%Jan 14, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldRyan Tunis$282$257 +21.6%Jan 14, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$311$264.84 +34.2%Jan 13, 2026
BMO CapitalMichael Zaremski$275$264.84 +18.6%Jan 13, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$247$259 +6.5%Jan 8, 2026
Goldman SachsRobert Cox$292$259 +26.0%Jan 7, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$272$262.77 +17.3%Jan 7, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$328$253.39 +41.5%Dec 22, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$300$252.64 +29.4%Dec 19, 2025
NeedhamAnalyst unavailable$272$251.52 +17.3%Dec 18, 2025
UBSBrian Meredith$285$251.98 +22.9%Dec 17, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$293$252.12 +26.4%Dec 17, 2025
Wolfe ResearchTracy Benguigui$289$251.98 +24.7%Dec 17, 2025
Evercore ISIDavid Motemaden$334$251.98 +44.1%Dec 17, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$280$251.38 +20.8%Dec 16, 2025
Mizuho SecuritiesYaron Kinar$276$256.19 +19.1%Dec 15, 2025
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$280$255.46 +20.8%Dec 15, 2025
Wells FargoElyse Greenspan$344$245.41 +48.4%Dec 5, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$250$248.72 +7.8%Nov 20, 2025
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$295$246.23 +27.3%Oct 31, 2025
Goldman SachsRobert Cox$315$244.82 +35.9%Oct 31, 2025
Evercore ISIDavid Motemaden$353$262.03 +52.3%Oct 31, 2025
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$340$305.84 +46.7%Oct 2, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$329$297.91 +41.9%Sep 19, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$365$297.91 +57.4%Sep 19, 2025
Truist FinancialMark Hughes$290$301.82 +25.1%Jan 31, 2025
Goldman SachsRobert Cox$313$304.29 +35.0%Nov 25, 2024
BMO CapitalMichael Zaremski$325$281.45 +40.2%Nov 12, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesJoshua Shanker$293$294.94 +26.4%Oct 10, 2024
JefferiesYaron Kinar$274$293.16 +18.2%Oct 9, 2024
Goldman SachsRobert Cox$300$279.45 +29.4%Sep 27, 2024
RBC CapitalScott Heleniak$320$282.2 +38.0%Sep 20, 2024
BarclaysAlex Scott$300$297.75 +29.4%Sep 4, 2024
CFRACatherine Seifert$320$283.58 +38.0%Jul 26, 2024
Truist FinancialMark Hughes$265$282.14 +14.3%Jul 26, 2024
RBC CapitalScott Heleniak$310$280.9 +33.7%Jul 26, 2024
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$254$273.97 +9.6%Jul 26, 2024
RBC CapitalScott Heleniak$290$254.52 +25.1%Jun 26, 2024
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$270$249.5 +16.5%May 14, 2024
Piper SandlerPaul Newsome$252$234.21 +8.7%Apr 29, 2024
Truist FinancialMark Hughes$255$244.13 +10.0%Apr 10, 2024
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$228$196.32 -1.6%Feb 1, 2023
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$215$190.17 -7.3%Dec 29, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$225$193.11 -2.9%Dec 15, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$204$196.28 -12.0%Nov 22, 2022
JefferiesYaron Kinar$211$158.74 -9.0%Jun 23, 2022
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$195$168.49 -15.9%May 2, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$211$179.33 -9.0%Apr 29, 2022
UBSWeston Bloomer$192$179.5 -17.2%Apr 20, 2022
Truist FinancialMark Hughes$205$183.22 -11.6%Apr 11, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesJoshua Shanker$151$166.64 -34.9%Oct 29, 2021
Deutsche BankPhil Stefano$145$137.99 -37.5%Jul 30, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., alongside its various subsidiaries, operates globally, providing a wide array of services that encompass insurance brokerage, expert consulting, and outsourced claims settlement and administration. Its geographic reach extends across the United States, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, India, and the United Kingdom. The company's business model is divided into two primary segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage division manages both retail and wholesale insurance operations. It also supports other brokers, including independent ones, in securing specialized or hard-to-place insurance coverage. This segment functions as a wholesale broker, managing general agent (MGA), and managing general underwriter (MGU) to distribute tailored insurance products to underwriting firms.…

Historical context

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Latest beats and misses

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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T22:06:06.430471+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T22:06:06.427558+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.