Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold33 ratings
Bullish1545.5%
Neutral1545.4%
Bearish39.1%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNCO · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
AGNC: Volatility pressured returns, but portfolio flexibility improved
AGNC's current quarter shows a trade-off: spread widening hurt economic performance, but liquidity, financing conditions, demand and new capital may support opportunistic portfolio repositioning. The near-term case depends on whether those supports outweigh policy, prepayment and volatility risks.
Reported Session unavailableNASDAQReal Estate
$10.43B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.42
Consensus $0.36
EPS surprise
+16.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.05B
Consensus $988.6M
Revenue surprise
+6.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move
+0.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.3%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNCO FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AGNCO rise 0.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in AGNCO's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNCO after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior analysis, the backdrop became more volatile: economic performance turned negative as Agency MBS spreads widened, while management highlighted stronger demand, improved TBA financing and a $401 million equity raise at a premium as sources of flexibility.
Guidance delta
No formal guidance was provided in the current analysis. Management plans to adjust leverage and portfolio construction as market conditions evolve.
Key takeaways
- Q1 economic performance was pressured by Agency MBS spread widening, despite MBS outperforming Treasuries and investment-grade corporates.
- Management cited reduced new issuance, strong money-manager demand and possible regulatory support as a stronger supply-demand backdrop.
- Liquidity remained solid, while the equity raise and improved TBA financing added portfolio flexibility.
Management priorities
- Buy low-coupon specified pools opportunistically and rotate toward higher coupons as inflows evolve.
- Maintain a positive duration gap to help manage prepayment risk in a potential down-rate scenario.
- Deploy raised capital into high-return assets and adjust leverage as spreads and market conditions change.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 25, 2023 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2023 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 15, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2021 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 24, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 23, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 15, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 7, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 5, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 10, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 14, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Track every rating change on AGNCO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAGNC Investment Corp. functions as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) within the United States, specializing in the residential mortgage market. Its primary investments include residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations, all of which benefit from principal and interest payments guaranteed by either a U.S. government-sponsored entity or a direct U.S. government agency. The company primarily finances these investments through secured borrowing arrangements, specifically repurchase agreements. By electing REIT status under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, AGNC can largely avoid federal corporate income tax, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable earnings to its shareholders. The firm was established in 2008 and underwent a name change in September 2016, adopting AGNC Investment Corp. after previously operating as American Capital Agency Corp. Its headquarters are situated in Bethesda, Maryland.
Historical context
All AGNCO earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | 0.0% | AGNC sees agency MBS opportunity despite Q3 rate volatility |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC: Attractive MBS spreads offset a difficult quarter |
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | AGNCZ: Q3 loss reflects rate shock as hedges and capital preserve flexibility |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | AGNC faces rate volatility but sees opportunity in Agency MBS |
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +4.1% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while preserving balance-sheet flexibility |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- KEY-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
- KEY-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
- KEY-PJFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
- KEY-PIFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
- KEYFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS+4.5% move
- NOCFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+9.9% EPS+4.6% move
Missed on EPS
- AGNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS0.0% move
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- STLDFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-4.0% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+4.1% move
- HDBFY2027 Q2 · October 17, 2026-2.0% EPS— move
- TFC-PIFY2026 Q3 · October 16, 2026-50.9% EPS— move
Get the AGNCO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T04:00:41.346321+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.