Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold33 ratings
Bullish1545.5%
Neutral1545.4%
Bearish39.1%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNCM · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
AGNC: Strong 2025 returns, with spreads and policy still key risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional outlook: strong reported returns, disciplined leverage and a favorable agency-MBS backdrop provide support, while spread volatility, policy changes and dividend coverage remain the principal tests.
Reported After market closeNASDAQReal Estate
$10.43B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise
-5.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$944.0M
Consensus $940.8M
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+0.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.4%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNCM FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AGNCM rise 0.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in AGNCM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNCM after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted tighter agency-mortgage spreads, leverage reduced to 7.2x tangible equity, and a greater use of swap-based hedges, with 70% of hedges swap-based at quarter-end versus 59% a quarter earlier.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; no quantified guidance change was supplied.
Key takeaways
- Management reported a 22.7% 2025 economic return and 34.8% total stock return.
- Agency mortgage spreads tightened, while leverage declined to 7.2x tangible equity.
- The hedge mix shifted toward longer-dated swaps; the hedge ratio remained 77%.
- Management described dividend coverage as strong, citing roughly 16% ROE versus a 15.8% total cost of capital.
Management priorities
- Maintain a higher proportion of swap-based hedges
- Issue accretive equity opportunistically when economics are favorable
- Monitor GSE policy and Federal Reserve actions when adjusting leverage and portfolio positioning
- Target a balanced agency-MBS supply-demand outlook in 2026
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 25, 2023 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2023 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 15, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2021 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 24, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 23, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 15, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 7, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2015 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 29, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 5, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 11, 2013 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 10, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 14, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Track every rating change on AGNCM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHeadquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, AGNC Investment Corp. was established in 2008. This domestic real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily allocates its capital to residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). A key characteristic of these investments is that their principal and interest payments are guaranteed by U.S. government agencies or government-sponsored enterprises. To finance these holdings, the company largely relies on secured borrowings, specifically structured as repurchase agreements. By electing REIT status under the 1986 Internal Revenue Code, AGNC avoids federal corporate income tax, provided it disperses a minimum of 90% of its taxable earnings to its shareholders. The firm was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. until it changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016.
Historical context
All AGNCM earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNCZ: Q3 loss highlights rate volatility and hedging |
| AGNCL AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC Q3: Rate Volatility Drove a -12.7% Economic Return |
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while defending agency MBS fundamentals |
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | 0.0% | AGNC sees agency MBS opportunity despite Q3 rate volatility |
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +4.1% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while preserving balance-sheet flexibility |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ISRGFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+13.2% EPS-3.6% move
- SPCXFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+160.0% EPS-0.1% move
- COF-PIFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+21.6% EPS— move
- MSCIFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+1.6% EPS+5.0% move
- COF-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+21.6% EPS— move
- COF-PNFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+21.6% EPS— move
Missed on EPS
- PACFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026-2.2% EPS+7.1% move
- AGNCZFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCLFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS0.0% move
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
Get the AGNCM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T11:50:41.158566+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.