Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold32 ratings
Bullish928.1%
Neutral1856.3%
Bearish515.6%
Aflac Incorporated · AFL · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
Aflac: Growth continues, with Japan and FX risks in focus
The quarter supports a constructive but conditional view of Aflac: sales expansion, product distribution, and capital strength are positives, while FX, Japan benefit-ratio pressure, and commercial-real-estate exposure temper the outlook.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$59.20B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.16
Consensus $1.69
EPS surprise
+27.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.95B
Consensus $4.30B
Revenue surprise
-31.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.8%
Event window
SPY move
-2.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+8.8%
Up to 20 sessions
AFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AFL FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AFL fall 4.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in AFL's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for AFL after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior supplied analysis, the current analysis emphasizes continued Japan and U.S. sales growth, stronger visibility on the Japan benefit-ratio target, and ongoing capital deployment, while retaining FX and commercial-real-estate risks as key offsets.
Guidance delta
Guidance was described as maintained; management identified a 62–63% full-year Japan benefit-ratio target while noting pressure from the LDTI unlock.
Key takeaways
- Management described adjusted earnings growth despite a GAAP loss linked to foreign exchange.
- Japan sales momentum was led by Tsumitasu and cancer insurance, while U.S. sales benefited from Group Life, Disability, and dental and vision platforms.
- Strong capital supports the stated dividend and share-repurchase plans.
- The main watch items are Japan benefit ratios, FX, U.S. claims utilization, and commercial real-estate credit.
Management priorities
- Continue promoting Tsumitasu and broaden product distribution in Japan
- Scale Group Life, Disability, Dental, and Vision platforms
- Use reinsurance and capital management to support growth and shareholder returns
- Manage the commercial-real-estate loan watchlist and pursue recoveries
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$118.05Previous close
$70Low
$109.19Average
$138High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Jan 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 25, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2020 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2016 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 20, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 10, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Mar 1, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $118.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $112.38 | +5.9% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $121.73 | +3.3% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $138 | $124.61 | +16.9% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $124.61 | -1.7% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $108 | $121.99 | -8.5% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $112 | $121.44 | -5.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $121.27 | +5.0% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $130 | $117.86 | +10.1% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $125 | $117.3 | +5.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $104 | $112.88 | -11.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $116.21 | -16.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $111.32 | -13.6% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $113.07 | -3.4% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $107 | $113.2 | -9.4% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $110.19 | -14.4% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Wilma Burdis | $119 | $109.96 | +0.8% | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $111.76 | +1.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $111 | $114.69 | -6.0% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $104 | $108.81 | -11.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $110 | $111.9 | -6.8% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $102 | $112.93 | -13.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $113.1 | +5.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $113 | $105.66 | -4.3% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $105 | $102.28 | -11.1% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $98 | $104.36 | -17.0% | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $102 | $114.6 | -13.6% | Dec 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $122 | $112.82 | +3.3% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $90 | $109.69 | -23.8% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $115 | $109.07 | -2.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $114 | $103.92 | -3.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Wesley Carmichael | $90 | $101.21 | -23.8% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $100 | $100.44 | -15.3% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $108 | $102.36 | -8.5% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Suneet Kamath | $84 | $88.93 | -28.8% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $100 | $89.16 | -15.3% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $95 | $84.36 | -19.5% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | John Barnidge | $90 | $85.86 | -23.8% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $87 | $83.57 | -26.3% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $69.66 | -40.7% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $73.28 | -33.9% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $70.23 | -39.0% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.99 | -43.2% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Thomas Gallagher | $59 | $53.45 | -50.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In Japan, the company offers a diverse range of insurance products, including coverage for cancer, medical expenses, income support for nursing care, and the distinct GIFT plan. This segment also provides traditional whole and term life insurance, along with savings-oriented plans like WAYS and child endowment products. Meanwhile, the Aflac U.S.…
Historical context
All AFL earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USB-PR U.S. Bancorp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | — | U.S. Bancorp lifts guidance as fee growth and BTIG support Q3 |
| USB-PS U.S. Bancorp Depositary Shares, | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | — | U.S. Bancorp Q3: Record Revenue, Higher Full-Year Guidance |
| FHN First Horizon Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | +0.8% | First Horizon: Mortgage sale reshapes margin and capital outlook |
| USB-PQ U.S. Bancorp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | — | U.S. Bancorp Q3: Fee growth and raised guidance lead the story |
| PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.7% | -0.4% | PNC raises full-year outlook as growth offsets margin pressure |
| USB-PA U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | — | U.S. Bancorp Q3: Fee Growth and BTIG Lift Guidance |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T09:40:45.954935+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T09:40:45.951113+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.