Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish1248.0%
Neutral1248.0%
Bearish14.0%
Ameren Corporation · AEE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Ameren Q1 2026: EPS Beats on Infrastructure Spend, Revenue Misses Amid Data Center Demand
Ameren's Q1 2026 results reflect a regulated utility in heavy investment mode. EPS of $1.28 beat consensus by 8.5% and rose from $1.07 a year ago, driven by $1.5 billion of infrastructure spending across electric and gas grids. Revenue of $2.18 billion came in approximately 3% below estimates, partly reflecting warmer-than-normal winter weather that reduced electric retail sales in Missouri. Despite the revenue miss, management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.25-$5.45 and disclosed a $70 billion investment pipeline through 2035. The signing of 2.2 GW of energy services agreements with data centers represents a significant growth vector, with another 1.2 GW under negotiation. The market reaction was negative -- the stock declined 3.2% on an abnormal basis with continued drift -- suggesting investors are weighing near-term revenue softness and regulatory execution risk against the…
Reported After market closeNYSEUtilities
$30.43B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.28
Consensus $1.18
EPS surprise
+8.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.18B
Consensus $2.24B
Revenue surprise
-3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.8%
Event window
SPY move
+1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.4%
Up to 20 sessions
AEESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AEE FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AEE fall 1.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in AEE's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for AEE after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
EPS rose to $1.28 from $1.07 year-over-year, beating consensus by 8.5%. Revenue of $2.18 billion missed estimates by approximately 3%, partly due to warmer-than-normal winter reducing Missouri electric retail sales. Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.25-$5.45. Signed 2.2 GW of energy services agreements for data centers, with an additional 1.2 GW under negotiation. Disclosed a $70 billion investment pipeline through 2035. Multiple generation projects advancing: Bowling Green (50 MW), Split Rail (300 MW), Castle Bluff, Big Hollow with 400 MW battery storage. Illinois ICC granted a $65 million revenue adjustment for Illinois operations. Illinois gas storage portfolio saved customers approximately $63 million from extreme market prices. S&P reaffirmed BBB+ credit rating with stable outlook.
Guidance delta
Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.25-$5.45. Management tone was confident and guidance sentiment was maintained. Capital expenditure outlook is increasing, supported by a $70 billion investment pipeline through 2035 and an approximately $4 billion equity program for 2026-2030. A Missouri IRP filing is planned for September to update the 20-year generation strategy.
Key takeaways
- Q1 EPS of $1.28 beat estimates by 8.5% and rose from $1.07 a year ago, reflecting $1.5 billion of infrastructure investment.
- Revenue of $2.18 billion missed estimates by approximately 3%, partly due to warmer-than-normal winter reducing Missouri electric retail sales.
- Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.25-$5.45 with a $70 billion investment pipeline through 2035.
- Signed 2.2 GW of energy services agreements for data centers, with an additional 1.2 GW under negotiation.
- Multiple generation projects advancing across gas, solar, and battery storage, including Bowling Green, Split Rail, Castle Bluff, and Big Hollow.
- Illinois ICC granted a $65 million revenue adjustment; Missouri PSC CCN approvals and a September IRP filing are upcoming regulatory catalysts.
Management priorities
- Executing on the $70 billion investment pipeline through 2035, starting with $1.5 billion spent in Q1.
- Advancing generation projects: Bowling Green (50 MW) and Split Rail (300 MW) commissioning, with Castle Bluff and Big Hollow construction starts.
- Filing CCN requests for approximately 3 GW of new generation by Q3, plus a Missouri IRP filing in September.
- Continued equity program of approximately $4 billion for 2026-2030 and debt issuances to fund the capital plan.
- Expanding data center load through energy services agreements, currently at 2.2 GW signed with 1.2 GW under negotiation.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$106.08Current
$80Low
$108.56Average
$131High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 7, 2023 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 16, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Sep 12, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 3, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 3, 2013 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 24, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 8, 2012 |
| ISI Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $106.08. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $104.32 | +9.4% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $116 | $103.24 | +9.4% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdel | $113 | $100.25 | +6.5% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ian Rapp | $104 | $99.39 | -2.0% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Stephen D\'Ambrisi | $107 | $98.46 | +0.9% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $109.74 | +13.1% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $109.61 | +16.9% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $112.01 | +18.8% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $112.01 | +15.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $111.36 | +11.2% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $117 | $112.54 | +10.3% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $115 | $112.71 | +8.4% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $109.74 | +3.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $117 | $110.68 | +10.3% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $120 | $111.27 | +13.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Richard Sunderland | $126 | $111.27 | +18.8% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $111.86 | +9.4% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| BTIG | Alex Kania | $131 | $114.32 | +23.5% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $116 | $109.46 | +9.4% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $127 | $109.31 | +19.7% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $109.4 | +6.5% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $109.34 | +10.3% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $109.34 | +13.1% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Stephen D'Ambrisi | $116 | $101.85 | +9.4% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $108 | $103.75 | +1.8% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $104 | +4.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $104 | $102.54 | -2.0% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $97.99 | +8.4% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $98.87 | -2.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $104.81 | +5.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Stephen D'Ambrisi | $119 | $104.81 | +12.2% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $104.18 | +7.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $105.38 | +4.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $104.92 | +4.6% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $105.69 | +6.5% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $104.23 | +2.8% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $104 | $101.13 | -2.0% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $104 | $96.46 | -2.0% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $114 | $96.2 | +7.5% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $100 | $95.1 | -5.7% | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $102 | $95.4 | -3.8% | May 22, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $103 | $95.42 | -2.9% | May 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $100 | -3.8% | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $97 | $83.62 | -8.6% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdel | $89 | $83.99 | -16.1% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $87 | $80.85 | -18.0% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| UBS | Daniel Ford | $87 | $74.82 | -18.0% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $80 | $71.13 | -24.6% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $77 | $70.1 | -27.4% | May 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $73 | $74.9 | -31.2% | May 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $81 | $73.85 | -23.6% | May 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Neil Kalton | $94 | $78.55 | -11.4% | Oct 19, 2023 |
| Barclays | Eric Beaumont | $80 | $77.43 | -24.6% | Sep 5, 2023 |
| KeyBanc | Sophie Karp | $90 | $83.36 | -15.2% | Jun 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $88.16 | -13.3% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $84.86 | -18.9% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $92 | $88.24 | -13.3% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $93.73 | -3.8% | Jun 3, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $96.36 | +5.6% | May 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $95.8 | -7.6% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $95.92 | -2.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $97.75 | -4.8% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Gary Hovis | $90 | $79.7 | -15.2% | Jun 24, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Julien Dumoulin Smith | $89 | $81.8 | -16.1% | Jun 21, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Insoo Kim | $90 | $84.49 | -15.2% | Jun 15, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating across the United States, Ameren Corporation functions as a utility holding company. The enterprise organizes its operations into four primary divisions: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission. Its fundamental business involves the rate-regulated production, transmission, and supply of electricity, in addition to the rate-regulated distribution and transmission of natural gas. Ameren generates power using a variety of sources, including coal, nuclear energy, and natural gas, supplemented by renewable alternatives such as hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar. Its customer base encompasses residential homes, commercial businesses, and industrial operations. Established in 1881, Ameren Corporation is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T11:21:46.697417+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T11:21:46.694703+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.