Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy42 ratings
Bullish2354.8%
Neutral1842.8%
Bearish12.4%
Alcoa Corporation · AA · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Alcoa: resilient demand meets tariff and execution pressure
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive long-term demand view for Alcoa, but near-term earnings quality remains exposed to tariffs, commodity prices and operational execution.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$10.94B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.39
Consensus $0.32
EPS surprise
+21.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.02B
Consensus $2.91B
Revenue surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.6%
Up to 20 sessions
AASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AA FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did AA rise 2.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in AA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for AA after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the emphasis shifted from stronger price mix and planned deleveraging toward weaker commodity pricing, tariff-driven margin compression, cash flexibility from asset-sale proceeds and a reduced capital-expenditure outlook.
Guidance delta
Maintained overall, with lower shipment and capital-expenditure expectations noted in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management described long-term aluminum demand as resilient, supported by EVs, construction, packaging and renewable-energy trends.
- The quarter's weaker performance reflected lower commodity prices and higher tariff costs, while the Midwest premium did not fully offset Section 232 costs.
- Balance-sheet flexibility improved through the Ma'aden stake sale and Australian tax-dispute resolution, but restart and permitting execution remain important watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Advance the San Ciprián smelter restart while managing cash burn and execution risk.
- Progress Western Australian mine approvals and maintain contingency mining plans.
- Scale EcoLum and other value-added aluminum products while maintaining safety, efficiency and cost discipline.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$41.45Current
$37Low
$61.17Average
$95High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 10, 2022 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2020 |
| Gabelli & Co. | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 21, 2019 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 22, 2017 |
| Clarksons Platou | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 22, 2017 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2016 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 9, 2016 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 9, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 29, 2015 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 29, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2015 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 1, 2015 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 22, 2015 |
| Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Oct 10, 2014 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2014 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 9, 2014 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 31, 2014 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 7, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 27, 2012 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 10, 2012 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 10, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $41.45. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $55 | $41.49 | +32.7% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $46.97 | +44.8% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $46.28 | +32.7% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $48.48 | +73.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $49.01 | +27.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $52.14 | +68.9% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $54.17 | +64.1% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $65.55 | +90.6% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $80 | $66.27 | +93.0% | May 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $63.25 | +68.9% | May 7, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $73 | $65.91 | +76.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $73.27 | +80.9% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $80 | $71.76 | +93.0% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $68 | $66.36 | +64.1% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $58.55 | +54.4% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $63.14 | +54.4% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $65.67 | +71.3% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $53.72 | +39.9% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $52 | $45.55 | +25.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.67 | +15.8% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $37.74 | +8.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $43.5 | $40.14 | +4.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $37.13 | -1.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $42.5 | $35.53 | +2.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $35.53 | -3.5% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $31 | $28.67 | -25.2% | May 15, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $45 | $42.07 | +8.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Derek Hernandez | $50 | $42.07 | +20.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $50 | $42.07 | +20.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $41 | $37.73 | -1.1% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $52 | $39.44 | +25.5% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| UBS | Curt Woodworth | $38 | $31.19 | -8.3% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Derek Hernandez | $39 | $39.7 | -5.9% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $50 | $39.64 | +20.6% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $36.5 | $36.35 | -11.9% | Apr 22, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Katja Jancic | $37 | $35.47 | -10.7% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $48 | $35.55 | +15.8% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Derek Hernandez | $31 | $35.55 | -25.2% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $37 | $35.55 | -10.7% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Katja Jancic | $28 | $24.53 | -32.4% | Oct 19, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $52.22 | +20.6% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $47.28 | +35.1% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $66 | $43.14 | +59.2% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $55 | $48.05 | +32.7% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $55 | $48.9 | +32.7% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $96 | $65.19 | +131.6% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Curt Woodworth | $82 | $82.53 | +97.8% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $95 | $91.96 | +129.2% | Mar 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sathish Kasinathan | $90 | $73.71 | +117.1% | Mar 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $78 | $73.86 | +88.2% | Feb 14, 2022 |
| B.Riley Financial | Lucas Pipes | $55 | $61.18 | +32.7% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $65 | $61.18 | +56.8% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $75 | $61.39 | +80.9% | Jan 17, 2022 |
Track every rating change on AA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAlcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europe (Spain, Iceland, Norway), South America (Brazil), and Australia, along with other international markets. The company's activities are strategically divided into three principal segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. Alcoa initiates its process with bauxite mining. This raw material is then refined into alumina, which is subsequently sold to customers for conversion into various industrial chemical products.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T08:40:42.650099+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T08:40:42.647277+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.