FN2 Research

Markets, explained.

Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.

IPOs · Market Structure · Regulation NMS · DTCC · SpaceX · Bending Spoons · Cerebras · AI Infrastructure

Record H1 Issuance Meets a Market-Structure Reset as Q3 Window Opens

H1 2026 set an all-time IPO record of $251B in proceeds, but the Q3 calendar thins after Bending Spoons debuts today while SpaceX staged lockups begin loosening — all as the SEC proposes rescinding Reg NMS's trade-through rule and DTCC extends NSCC clearing to 24/5.

Geopolitics · Oil · Energy · Federal Reserve · Iran · Russia-Ukraine · Macro · Rates

Two Supply Shocks, One Shrinking Risk Premium: Oil Defies Geopolitics as the Warsh Fed Steals the Spotlight

Brent holds just above $73 as Iran claims toll rights over Hormuz and Ukrainian drones force Russia to import fuel — but the real market tell is in rates, where the Warsh Fed's hawkish pivot is doing more to anchor sentiment than any Middle East headline.

Market Pulse · Q2 2026 · AI · Semiconductors · Macro · Earnings · Nasdaq · S&P 500

Market Pulse: Nasdaq's Record Q2 and the H2 Setup

Q2 2026 was the best quarter since 2020: S&P 500 +14.9%, Nasdaq +21%, powered by AI chip broadening. But July 1 pre-market sees semis pull back while MSFT diverges higher, with NFP and earnings season on the horizon.

IPO · Market Structure · ECM · Secondary Offerings · Lockup Expirations · Buybacks · SEC · Reg NMS

IPO Window Stays Wide Open: $120B+ in H1 2026 Issuance, Four New Listings This Week

U.S. equity issuance topped $120 billion in H1 2026 — the strongest first-half pace since 2021 — with Bending Spoons and CopperTech Metals leading four IPOs pricing before July 4. Secondaries, buybacks, lockup expirations, and SEC market-structure rules are all in motion simultaneously.

Geopolitics · Oil · Iran · Energy · Defense · Market Risk · Strait of Hormuz

Oil Erases Entire Iran-War Spike as Ceasefire Frays — Markets Bet on a Peace That Doesn't Exist

Oil posted its weakest quarter in five years as Brent fell roughly 30% over three months, sliding back to pre-war levels near $73. Yet the peace deal the market is pricing doesn't exist: Iran refused to meet US envoys in Doha, Israel warned war could resume within 48 hours, and Strait of Hormuz traffic keeps stuttering. The risk premium is gone — and so is the cushion.

Market Pulse · Semiconductors · Technology · Macro · Q2 2026 · Quarter-End

Nasdaq's Quarter-End Chip Surge Is the Cleanest Tell of Q2 2026

A semiconductor-led rally on June 30 capped the best quarter for US equities since 2020, with AMD's near-trillion-dollar surge and a 4% PHLX jump powering the Nasdaq to a +1.7% gain while health care and energy sold off.

Geopolitics · Oil & Energy · Iran Conflict · Strait of Hormuz · Macro Markets · Sanctions

Oil's Vanished War Premium: The Hormuz Peace Bet That Markets Are Making — And Whether It Holds

Brent crude fell ~30% in Q2, erasing the entire Iran-war spike as the US issued a 60-day sanctions waiver and Hormuz shipping traffic partially recovered. But renewed US-Iran strikes over the weekend show the peace deal the market is pricing is not yet a reality — with key diplomatic talks in Doha still unresolved.

IPOs · Market Structure · Buybacks · Texas Stock Exchange · SK hynix · SEC · Regulation

The Great Reopening: IPO Issuance, Record Buybacks, and the Market Structure Revolution of 2026

The IPO market is surging toward its busiest stretch in years, anchored by SK hynix's blockbuster $29B cross-listing and a packed pre-July calendar. Meanwhile, $1.3T in corporate buybacks and the launch of the Texas Stock Exchange are remaking market structure from the ground up. A look at what's driving issuance, liquidity, and competition in public markets.

Market Wrap · S&P 500 · Oil · Iran · Sectors · Macro

Market Close: Wall Street Hits Record Highs as Oil Tumbles on Iran Truce Optimism

Wall Street notched fresh all-time highs on May 28 as US-Iran ceasefire optimism crushed oil prices and lifted risk appetite. The Dow closed at a record 50,644, while Energy (-1.0%) was the session's worst sector. Healthcare and Tech led the day's gains.

NVIDIA · AI · Semiconductors · Data Center · Earnings · Blackwell · Rubin

NVIDIA at the Center of the AI Industrial Revolution

NVIDIA's data center revenue has multiplied 13x since ChatGPT launched. With $500B in visible Blackwell and Rubin revenue, a 92%-growing data center business, and a new reporting structure that reveals just how broad demand has become, the company is laying out a roadmap that stretches through the decade.

Macro · AI · Labor Market · Housing · Deglobalization · Consumer Sentiment

The Three Structural Forces Reshaping the Economy — And Why Consumer Sentiment at 49.8 Matters

Consumer sentiment sits at 49.8 — below COVID, below the GFC. But GDP is growing and unemployment is 4.3%. The disconnect isn't noise. It's three structural forces colliding: AI white-collar replacement, a deglobalization capex super-cycle, and a permanently frozen housing market.

Stylized candlestick chart showing a sharp post-earnings drop
Earnings · Semiconductors · How it works

Why Nvidia Fell After a Record Quarter

A beat-and-drop is rarely about the headline numbers. Using Nvidia as the case study, here is how guidance, margins, and the "whisper number" decide the move.