FN2 Research
Markets, explained.
Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.
The August Supply Wall: IPO Lockups, New Listings, and the SEC's Market-Structure Reckoning
A wave of newly unlocked supply, a mixed IPO reception, and a regulatory proposal to rescind Regulation NMS Rule 611 converge in the weeks ahead. Here is the calendar, the deal terms on the record, and what to watch.
Hormuz at 11% Capacity: Why the Strait's Collapse Is Now a Sanctions Problem, Not Just a War Story
With Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic at roughly 11% of pre-war levels after nine consecutive nights of US strikes, the chokepoint crisis is shifting from a military event to a legislative one as Congress weighs a combined Russia-Iran sanctions package. Brent has surged to the mid-$80s, energy stocks are outperforming defense, and the market is repricing a persistent flow disruption rather than a temporary shock.
Nasdaq Takes the Hit: Chip Selloff Splits the Tape as Energy Catches a Hormuz Bid
QQQ fell 4.2% on the week while the Dow slipped less than 1% and XLE rose 4.7%, as a semiconductor correction erased over $1 trillion in chip-sector value even as TSMC posted record earnings. The divergence between AI-driven tech and oil-sensitive energy is the cleanest tell on the board.
SpaceX Tests the IPO Boom: A $123 Billion Lockup Wave Looms
SpaceX has fallen below its $135 IPO price, and up to 1.37 billion shares could unlock after August 6 earnings — roughly quadrupling the float. The outcome will set the tone for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs queued behind it.
Hormuz Chokehold: Zero Tanker Transits and $88 Oil as US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses
Brent crude closed above $88 after Kpler reported three consecutive days with zero oil tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Two US service members were killed in Jordan — the first American combat deaths since the ceasefire collapsed — and Washington is bombing Iran for an eighth straight night. Oil majors and defense stocks are rallying while crypto and broader risk assets wobble.
Two Shocks, One Tape: Chip Bear Meets Hormuz Oil Spike
The week of July 13–17 delivered the market's first losing week since late June, driven by a semiconductor bear market and a surging oil price from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The two shocks feed each other through rates and sentiment.
The 2026 IPO Machine Is Near Its All-Time Record. Then SpaceX's $123B Lockup Arrives.
Through July 10, operating companies have raised $140 billion in 2026 IPOs, nearly matching 2021's full-year record. Now the largest IPO in history faces its first major lockup expiry, with $123 billion in SpaceX shares set to unlock in early August.
Hormuz Goes Dark: Zero Tankers, $85 Oil, and Two Trade Shocks Colliding on July 24
With zero tankers transiting Hormuz for a third day, Brent above $85, and the 10% universal tariff expiring July 24, markets face a simultaneous energy-supply and trade-policy shock. Oil majors and gold rose Friday; airlines and semiconductors led the downside.
Semis Bear, Oil Surge: A Two-Front Week for Markets
The S&P 500 posted its first losing week in three as semiconductors entered a bear market and oil surged on renewed US-Iran conflict. A cooler CPI print and new Fed Chair Warsh's testimony added a third layer.
IPO Window Stays Open, But Investors Get Selective as SEC Rewrites the Plumbing
Two sizable July IPOs priced below their target ranges and fell on debut, even as a $3.6T AI-led listing pipeline — led by Anthropic and OpenAI — queues up for the fall. The SEC is simultaneously proposing to rescind Reg NMS Rule 611 and extend price bands to overnight trading.
Brent Hits $88 as US-Iran Strikes Enter Eighth Night and Hormuz Traffic Stalls
The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed in mid-July. Eight straight nights of strikes, a reimposed naval blockade, and drone attacks on a second oil chokepoint in the Black Sea have Brent at $88 and US diesel above $5 — with hedge funds going long crude at the fastest pace since 2016.
AI Stocks Crack Despite Blowout Earnings — Is the Capex Supercycle Peaking?
TSMC and ASML posted blowout earnings, yet semiconductor stocks fell ~11% on the week. With oil surging on the Iran conflict and consumer sentiment at 44.8, the coming week's earnings will test whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of a deeper rotation.