Record H1 Issuance Meets a Market-Structure Reset as Q3 Window Opens

The Record That Was

U.S. equity issuance just put up the biggest first half in history. Through June 26, 2026, U.S. issuers raised $251 billion in IPO proceeds, surpassing the prior midyear record set during the 2021 listing boom, according to Renaissance Capital data reported by Reuters. Two landmark deals drove the print: SpaceX’s $86.2 billion IPO and Alphabet’s $85 billion equity raise to fund its AI buildout. Together, those two transactions are larger than all U.S. IPO proceeds from 2023, 2024, and 2025 combined.

The composition is as notable as the headline. Eleven separate IPOs cleared the $1 billion threshold in the first half. The 2026 debutant cohort is up a weighted-average 16% from offer prices. Q2 2026 alone saw 48 IPOs price, raising $104.9 billion — the largest single-quarter total since 2021, even before SpaceX. Renaissance Capital’s Q2 review notes that average IPO valuations are roughly three times last year’s average and ten times the 2022 average.

Sources: Reuters via Yahoo Finance, June 27, 2026; Renaissance Capital Q2 2026 US IPO Market Review. H1 2021 and H1 2025 are approximate annual-pace figures.

Bending Spoons Tests Today’s Window

Bending Spoons S.p.A. (BSP) prices today, July 1, 2026, on the Nasdaq Global Select Market — the largest European tech listing of the year and the first major IPO of Q3.

The Milan-based software group sold 57.97 million shares at $29 each, above the marketed $26–$28 range, raising $1.68 billion. The deal is 41% secondary, with existing shareholders including Baillie Gifford selling into the offering. The implied valuation lands near $18.4 billion, up from roughly $11 billion in its last private round.

Bending Spoons is not a conventional software house. It operates as a private-equity-style roll-up, acquiring established but underperforming digital products — Vimeo, WeTransfer, Evernote, Brightcove, Eventbrite, Meetup, Komoot — and restructuring their cost bases and pricing. Revenue grew from $387 million in 2023 to $671 million in 2024, then to $1.31 billion in 2025, an 84% compound annual growth rate. The company acquired Vimeo in November 2025 for approximately $1.38 billion.

The above-range pricing signals firm institutional demand, but the aftermarket will determine whether investors buy the roll-up thesis or treat the growth rate as unsustainable. The listing also underscores a wider drift of European tech companies toward deeper U.S. capital markets.

The Rest of This Week’s Calendar

Renaissance Capital’s calendar shows four additional deals pricing alongside Bending Spoons this week:

Notably, Renaissance’s calendar shows nothing scheduled after this week — a thin pipeline heading into the back half of July, consistent with Morgan Stanley’s note that Q3 deals are likely to be front-loaded ahead of midterm-election volatility.

SpaceX: The Asterisk and the Lockup Clock

SpaceX (SPCX) listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, pricing at $135, opening at $150, and closing its first session at $161 — a 19% first-day gain. The IPO was more than three times the size of Saudi Aramco’s 2019 $25.6 billion deal, which had held the record for seven years.

The follow-through has been bumpier. Across a four-session stretch in late June, SpaceX shed roughly $400 billion in market capitalization, including a single-day decline of about 16%. The stock remains above its IPO price, but the volatility is a reminder that record demand at issuance does not guarantee clean aftermarket performance.

The lockup structure is now the critical variable. Unlike a conventional 180-day lockup, SpaceX uses a staged release:

• Up to 20% of eligible shares may be released after SpaceX reports its first quarterly results as a public company (expected late July or August).
• An additional 10% unlocks if the stock trades at least 30% above the IPO price during five of ten consecutive trading days before the earnings release date.
• Further staggered releases follow, including after Q2 earnings.
• Elon Musk’s approximately 6.4 billion shares are locked until June 12, 2027 — a 366-day lockup.
• The traditional 180-day lockup expires December 8, 2026.

Cerebras Systems (CBRS), which debuted May 14, 2026 and opened roughly 89% above its IPO price, uses a similarly staged structure. Non-executive employees became eligible to sell 7.5% of shares on the first trading day, with another 7.5% on day two after the stock closed more than 33% above the IPO price. Directors, officers, and pre-IPO investors face a longer path: 15% of their shares unlock after Q1 2026 earnings, with additional releases tied to Q2 earnings and fixed dates in August, September, and October.

Both companies bar holders from using derivatives, swaps, or hedging arrangements to synthetically work around the lockup while shares remain restricted.

The SEC’s Reg NMS Proposal: Biggest Structure Change in 20 Years

On June 11, 2026, the SEC voted to propose the rescission of Rule 611 (the Order Protection Rule, or “trade-through rule”) and Rule 610(e) (the locked and crossed markets prohibition) of Regulation NMS — two provisions that have shaped U.S. equity market structure since 2005. Comments are due 60 days following publication in the Federal Register.

Chairman Paul Atkins, who dissented from the original adoption of Rule 611 as a commissioner in 2005, described the rule as having “hindered — rather than enhanced — the long-term growth of our markets” and framed the proposal as intended to “simplify market structure and reduce costs for market participants while allowing competition, innovation and other market forces to shape the continuing evolution of our equity markets.”

The SEC’s rationale centers on several findings:

• Exchange proliferation. In 2005, approximately eight exchanges traded NMS stocks. Today there are 17 operating exchanges with three more approved. Rule 611 effectively forces broker-dealers to connect to every exchange displaying a protected quote, regardless of market share.
• Cost burden. The SEC estimates that a broker-dealer connecting to all exchanges spends approximately $5.7 million per year on market data and connectivity fees, with onboarding a new exchange costing an estimated $1.5 million plus $200,000 in annual maintenance.
• Institutional harm. The rule can force large parent orders to interact with small-sized protected quotes across many venues, potentially signaling trading intentions and increasing slippage.
• Order-type complexity. Compliance with Rules 611 and 610(e) has driven the creation of dozens of specialized order types — intermarket sweep orders, price-to-comply, post-only — adding layers of complexity.
• Best execution as safeguard. The SEC argues that broker-dealers’ existing duty of best execution under FINRA Rule 5310 and common law anti-fraud provisions will continue to protect investors without Rule 611.

The proposal drew a range of reactions at two SEC-hosted roundtables. Some institutional investors and retail brokers supported outright rescission, arguing that competitive forces and best execution are sufficient. Others urged caution, arguing that best execution is “neither enforced nor enforceable” and that any weakening must be accompanied by 605/606 reporting reforms first. Commissioner Hester Peirce called the rule one that “may be causing more mischief than good,” while former Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw cautioned against treating rescission as “a magic bullet.”

DTCC Moves NSCC to 24/5 Clearing

On June 29, 2026, the DTCC announced that its subsidiary, the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), has extended clearing hours to a 24x5 model, running from Sundays at 8:00 PM ET to Fridays at 8:00 PM ET. The move supports overnight trading from alternative trading systems (ATSs) and exchanges, allowing NSCC to apply its central counterparty guarantee immediately to transactions executed across extended hours and multiple time zones.

Brian Steele, managing director and president of clearing and securities services at DTCC, said the near-continuous clearing model enhances market access worldwide while preserving risk management. Testing began in January 2026 and was completed by all firms before go-live. Industry participants including 24X National Exchange, Apex Fintech Solutions, Blue Ocean Technologies, Cboe Global Markets, Instinet, MEMX, Nasdaq, and NYSE expressed support. Exchanges are expected to follow with longer trading hours in late 2026.

DTCC CEO Frank La Salla tied the milestone directly to the SpaceX IPO, noting that NSCC cleared more than 37 million SpaceX IPO transactions worth over $441 billion on June 12 — about 7.7% of the 482 million transactions valued at more than $5 trillion settled that day. DTCC custodies $114 trillion in assets and processes $4.7 quadrillion in transactions annually.

Separately, the SEC approved the 27th Amendment to the National Market System Plan to Address Extraordinary Market Volatility, establishing temporary price band protections in overnight trading — a plumbing prerequisite for the extended-hours sessions that 24/5 clearing now supports.

CME to Launch Single-Stock Futures July 27

CME Group announced it will launch single-stock futures across more than 50 top U.S. stocks on July 27, 2026, pending regulatory review. The offering comprises 55 standard-sized and 22 micro-sized contracts, including exposure to Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, and SpaceX. CME cited equity derivatives average daily volume of 8.6 million contracts and record average futures open interest of 5.4 million contracts, with futures ADV up 12% year over year.

Why Issuance and Structure Matter Together

The H1 2026 IPO record and the simultaneous market-structure overhaul are not independent stories. Record issuance — especially the SpaceX mega-deal — stress-tested every component of the trading lifecycle, from book-building to clearing to settlement. DTCC’s decision to extend NSCC hours was explicitly motivated by the need to support the growing volume of overnight and cross-timezone trading that new listings and global participation generate.

If the SEC’s Reg NMS proposal advances, the competitive landscape among exchanges, ATSs, and internalizers could shift fundamentally. Rescinding the trade-through rule would remove the mechanical obligation to route to the best-priced protected quote, potentially consolidating liquidity on fewer venues — or fragmenting it further if new entrants compete on speed and cost rather than quote protection. Either outcome changes the execution quality that IPO investors and aftermarket traders experience.

Meanwhile, the IPO pipeline heading into Q3 is thin on the visible calendar. Forge Global’s tech IPO tracker identifies Lambda (AI infrastructure), OpenAI, and Anthropic as companies with confidential filings or reported H2 2026 listing plans. JPMorgan identifies PE-backed exits as the dominant H2 supply source. The pace of S-1 filings from private-equity sponsors will pre-signal whether Q2’s volume can be sustained.

What to Watch Next

• BSP aftermarket performance. The first five sessions of Bending Spoons trading will signal whether institutional demand extends beyond the book-building phase. Watch for the roll-up thesis being tested against the sustainability of 84% revenue growth.
• SpaceX first quarterly earnings (late July/August). This is the trigger for the first staged lockup release — up to 20% of eligible shares, with an additional 10% contingent on the stock trading 30%+ above the IPO price for 5 of 10 consecutive sessions. The volume and price action around this window will be the first real test of SPCX’s float absorption.
• Reg NMS comment period. The 60-day comment window opens upon Federal Register publication (filed June 17, 2026). Watch for submissions from major exchanges, broker-dealer associations, and institutional investor groups — particularly on whether FINRA Rule 5310 best-execution guidance will be strengthened in parallel.
• Q3 IPO calendar fill. Renaissance shows nothing scheduled after this week. The rate of new S-1 filings through July will indicate whether PE-backed exits can sustain the pace or whether the calendar compresses into August before midterm-election risk dampens issuance.
• CME single-stock futures launch (July 27). The addition of single-name derivatives on 50+ stocks — including SPCX — gives institutional and retail participants a new hedging tool for newly public equity, potentially dampening aftermarket volatility for recent IPOs.
• 24/5 clearing adoption curve. NSCC’s extended hours are live, but the pace at which ATSs and exchanges extend their own sessions will determine whether overnight liquidity deepens or remains thin. Watch for exchange announcements on extended-hours trading schedules in Q3.

Sources: Reuters via Yahoo Finance (June 27, 2026); Renaissance Capital Q2 2026 IPO Market Review and IPO Calendar; The Next Web (July 1, 2026); Bloomberg; WilmerHale client alert (June 17, 2026); SEC Release No. 34-105655 (File No. S7-2026-20); SEC Release No. 34-105596 (27th NMS Plan Amendment); DTCC announcement (June 29, 2026); John Lothian News (June 30, 2026); CME Group announcement (June 30, 2026); Evercore Wealth Management (May 14, 2026); IPOX; GuruFocus (July 1, 2026); Crypto Briefing (July 1, 2026). This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.