Jersey Mike's Tests Retail IPO Appetite as SpaceX's Crash Resets Expectations
The sandwich chain's $1 billion debut and Reformation's listing arrive as US IPO volume hits records — but the post-IPO reality for 2026's mega-deals is proving far messier than the pricing.
The US IPO market is running at record volume in 2026 — over $130 billion raised — yet the experience for investors who actually bought into the year’s biggest deals tells a more complicated story. SpaceX, the largest IPO in history, has fallen roughly 20% below its $135 offering price, erasing more than $1.2 trillion in market value from its peak[1]. SK hynix, the biggest foreign listing ever on a US exchange, is down about 15% from its IPO price[1]. Against that backdrop, two consumer companies — Blackstone-backed Jersey Mike’s and Permira-backed Reformation — are stepping into the market on July 30, testing whether investor appetite extends beyond AI and semiconductors into restaurants and apparel[2].
Jersey Mike’s: A $1 Billion Restaurant IPO in a Tech-Dominated Year
Jersey Mike’s priced its IPO at $23 per share on July 29, the midpoint of its $21–$25 indicated range, raising approximately $1 billion across roughly 43.5 million shares[2]. The offering implies a valuation of about $7.3 billion for the sandwich chain, which Blackstone acquired a majority stake in last year at an $8 billion valuation[2].
The deal is notable on several fronts. First, it is one of the largest restaurant IPOs in recent years. The last sizeable US restaurant IPO was Cava in 2023, which raised $318 million at a $4.7 billion valuation[2]. Second, it represents a quick partial exit for Blackstone at a time when many private equity firms have struggled to sell or take their portfolio companies public[2]. After the IPO, Blackstone will retain roughly two-thirds of Jersey Mike’s voting power[2].
Third — and perhaps most important for market structure — consumer and retail IPO volumes in 2026 are at their lowest level in a decade[3]. Jersey Mike’s is the second-largest sub-style sandwich chain in the US by sales, with 3,300 locations across the US and Canada and plans to expand abroad[2]. If the stock performs well, it could crack open a window for other consumer companies. If it stumbles, the case that the IPO market is a one-sector show — AI and semiconductors only — gets stronger.
The offering’s composition is also worth noting. Jersey Mike’s is selling about 13.8 million shares, while existing investors are selling approximately 29.7 million shares — meaning roughly two-thirds of the deal is secondary, not primary capital[2]. That is a meaningful signal about who is taking money off the table.
Reformation: A Rare Apparel Listing
Listing alongside Jersey Mike’s on July 30 is Reformation (REF), a Permira-backed sustainable womenswear retailer targeting a valuation of up to $1 billion[3]. Reformation aims to raise up to $239 million at a price range of $15–$17[4]. Fashion IPOs have been exceptionally scarce — the Reuters headline described the dual listing as a “test for US retail listings” whose volumes are the lowest in a decade[3].
The SpaceX Reality Check
The elephant in the IPO room is SpaceX (SPCX). The company raised nearly $86 billion in its June 12 IPO at $135 per share — the largest public offering in history[3]. Shares initially surged, pushing the company’s market capitalization toward an estimated $2.67 trillion peak[3].
Since then, the unraveling has been swift. By mid-July, SpaceX shares fell below the $135 IPO price for the first time[3]. As of July 29, the stock was trading at $112.55, roughly 20% below the offering price and down more than 42% from its peak[1]. Short sellers are sitting on an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profit, with about 185 million shares sold short — approximately 29% of the publicly tradable float[3].
Several factors weigh on the stock. A Starship test flight — the first since the IPO — was initially aborted due to engine issues before a successful launch on July 25[3]. More broadly, the selloff reflects a recalibration of valuations across the AI and space complexes. As one MarketWatch analysis noted, close to half of major IPOs historically sink below their offering price and stay there for several years[3].
The balanced interpretation cuts both ways. The bears point to a stock that erased over $1.2 trillion from its peak in under a month and became Wall Street’s most-shorted new listing. The bulls note that analysts remain strongly bullish, and that Meta’s own post-IPO decline was followed by one of the most dramatic recoveries in market history[3]. What would have to be true for the bulls: SpaceX’s revenue trajectory — spanning launch services, Starlink, and its emerging AI compute business — would need to grow into a valuation that still dwarfs most public companies. What would have to be true for the bears: the initial IPO enthusiasm was a momentum-driven artifact that front-loaded years of growth expectations into a single price.
SK hynix and CXMT: The Chip IPO Wave
SK hynix (SKHY), South Korea’s memory chip giant, raised $26.5 billion in its US ADR listing on July 10 — the biggest foreign IPO in US history[3]. Priced at $149, the stock has since declined to $126.79, a drop of about 15%[1]. Memory chip stocks slumped broadly in the wake of the listing, reflecting investor concerns about how much runway remains in the AI-driven semiconductor cycle[3].
Meanwhile, China’s CXMT raised $8.6 billion in its Shanghai listing — Asia’s biggest IPO this year — and surged 466% on its first trading day, becoming the most valuable mainland-listed company[3]. The debut rattled global chip stocks, with AMD, ASML, Nvidia, and SanDisk all under pressure[3]. CXMT’s surge underscores a structural tension: the AI chip boom is simultaneously powering record IPO volume and intensifying competitive pressure across the semiconductor supply chain.
The AI IPO Pipeline: Anthropic and OpenAI Loom
Two IPOs that could dwarf everything else are moving through the pipeline. Anthropic is scheduling investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO as soon as October, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan leading the offering[3]. The company is also arranging billions of dollars in additional credit lines and is considering requiring rank-and-file employees to sell stock through preset trading plans post-IPO to avoid insider-trading concerns[3].
OpenAI, meanwhile, has added two independent board members — David Vélez of Nubank and Robin Vince of BNY — ahead of its own expected public offering[3]. The company faces a complication: Apple has filed a trade secrets lawsuit alleging misconduct reaching to OpenAI’s chief hardware officer, which some analysts say could narrow its IPO window[3]. Bank of America has extended a $520 million credit line to OpenAI[3].
The combined IPO wealth creation at OpenAI and Anthropic is large enough that one analysis estimated their current and former employees could buy nearly one-third of all homes in San Francisco[3].
Recent IPO Performance Snapshot
| Company | Ticker | IPO Date | IPO Price | Recent Price | Return | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | SPCX | Jun 12 | $135.00 | $112.55 | -16.6% | Largest IPO ever; ~$1.2T erased from peak |
| SK hynix | SKHY | Jul 10 | $149.00 | $126.79 | -14.9% | Biggest foreign US IPO |
| Csquare | CSQR | Jul 16 | $21.00 | $20.68 | -1.5% | Brookfield-backed data center operator |
| Standard Nuclear | STDN | Jul 16 | $15.00 | $7.33 | -51.1% | Cut IPO size by more than half |
| Scribe Therapeutics | SCTX | Jul 24 | $15.00 | $18.36 | +22.4% | Biotech bright spot |
| Bending Spoons | BSP | Jul 1 | $29.00 | $32.70 | +12.8% | Italian software company |
| Parabilis Medicines | PBLS | Jun 10 | $20.00 | $31.78 | +58.9% | Best recent biotech debut |
| Cerebras Systems | CBRS | May 14 | $185.00 | $169.39 | -8.4% | AI chip company |
Source: StockAnalysis.com IPO data[1]
The pattern is clear: the deals that generated the most pre-listing excitement — SpaceX and SK hynix — have been the worst post-listing performers, while smaller biotech and pharma IPOs have quietly delivered some of the best first-month returns. That divergence is worth watching. It suggests that the IPO market in 2026 is not uniformly overheated; rather, it is bifurcated between mega-deals where expectations were front-loaded and smaller, less hyped offerings where valuations left room for upside.
What to Watch Next
- Jersey Mike’s first-day performance (July 30): A strong debut would signal that the IPO window extends beyond tech. A weak one reinforces the narrative that 2026 is an AI-only market.
- Reformation’s reception (July 30): A rare apparel IPO at a ~$1 billion target valuation. Its pricing and first-day trade will inform whether consumer brands can access public markets this year.
- Apnimed IPO (July 31): The sleep apnea pill developer targets a $608 million valuation[3]. Another test of the biotech IPO window.
- Attovia Therapeutics (August 5): Filed for a US IPO on July 22[3], with a price range of $15–$17 and 12.5 million shares[4].
- Anthropic investor meetings: If the roadshow proceeds as reported, an October IPO would be the next mega-deal test. The terms — pricing, float size, lockup structure — will set the template for how the market prices large AI companies.
- SpaceX lockup and short interest: With ~29% of the float sold short[3], any positive catalyst — a successful Starship mission, a major contract — could trigger a short squeeze. Conversely, continued selling pressure tests whether the stock can hold above psychological support levels.
- GrubMarket confidential filing: The $4.5 billion food supply chain technology company submitted a confidential S-1[3], adding another name to the pipeline.
- Securitize-Cantor onchain IPO initiative: A new collaboration aims to enable onchain IPOs and follow-on offerings for public companies[3], a market-plumbing development that could eventually broaden the issuance infrastructure.
The base-rate reading is sobering: close to half of major IPOs fall below their offering price and remain there for years[3]. The 2026 cycle has been extraordinary in volume, but the post-deal performance of its marquee listings suggests that pricing discipline — not deal flow — is the real constraint. Jersey Mike’s and Reformation will tell us whether that discipline is sector-specific or market-wide.