Iran Strikes Tankers in Hormuz, US Revokes Oil Waiver and Resumes Strikes — The June Ceasefire Is Unraveling

The June 14 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was always a fragile thing — a 60-day window to negotiate a permanent deal, with vague wording on the Strait of Hormuz and no enforcement mechanism. On July 7, that window started closing. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the strait, hitting a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker with significant damage but no casualties. Within hours, the US Treasury revoked the general licenses for Iranian petroleum exports that had been issued on June 21, and US Central Command announced it had “begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping.”{{cite:7c8f07837eec}} Iranian media reported explosions near the port of Sirik on Iran’s southern coast.{{cite:7c8f07837eec}}

What happened in the Strait

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency first reported that a tanker had been struck by a “projectile” on its port side while moving southbound about 8 nautical miles off the coast of Limah, Oman, causing a fire.{{cite:906ecadf966f}} Reuters sources later identified the vessel as the Al Rekayyat, a Qatari LNG carrier owned by Nakilat, Qatar’s state-owned shipping company. The crew were safe, but the ship was at risk of explosion due to a fire in its engine room.{{cite:906ecadf966f}} A second vessel, described as a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, was also damaged by IRGC missile fire.{{cite:906ecadf966f}}

The attacks ended a week-long pause in Hormuz hostilities and came immediately after the expiration of a memorandum of understanding that was supposed to suspend such strikes.{{cite:69fd1bd35573}} They also coincided with days of funeral processions for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the US-Israeli strikes on February 28 that opened the war.{{cite:906ecadf966f}}

The US response: sanctions revoked, strikes launched

The US Treasury published a document on July 7 revoking Iran-related general licenses, phasing out authorizations for the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products that had been granted on June 21.{{cite:273a2baf111f}} US Central Command confirmed that American forces had begun military operations against Iran.{{cite:7c8f07837eec}}

President Trump had telegraphed the escalation the same day. “We’re either going to make a deal or we’re going to finish the job,” he told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “And it won’t be tough to finish the job. I’d rather make a deal, because I don’t want to affect 91 million people.” He added: “We can knock down their bridges in one hour, we can knock out their energy supply.”{{cite:906ecadf966f}}

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that such threats violated the MoU and that “negotiations on final Deal will not commence if threats continue.” He pointed to the funeral crowds as evidence of Iranian resolve: “Millions of proud Iranians rallied in unity to honour Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and his legacy. Neither them nor our Brave Armed Forces are moved by any threats.”{{cite:906ecadf966f}} Iran’s state-aligned Press TV separately reported a threat of “immediate and decisive response” to any US provocative action.{{cite:ab7ab4c9666b}}

Oil prices surge as the Hormuz premium returns

The market reaction was swift. WTI crude rose 5.25% to $72.15 and Brent crude futures gained 5.7% to $76.14.{{cite:273a2baf111f}} Reuters reported Brent gaining 89 cents, or 1.24%, in early trade before the larger moves following the US sanctions revocation and military strikes.{{cite:69fd1bd35573}} The TradingKey analysis noted that the surge came as the two benchmarks snapped a two-day decline.{{cite:f728a3a073ad}}

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil trade alongside large-scale LNG shipments.{{cite:273a2baf111f}} Before the war began on February 28, an estimated 120-140 vessels crossed through the strait each day, roughly half of them oil tankers moving approximately 20 million barrels per day. At the height of the conflict, traffic collapsed to as few as two tankers a day.{{cite:906ecadf966f}} Over the July 3-5 weekend, shipping tracker Kpler recorded 108 verified crossings — a recovery, but still below pre-war norms.{{cite:906ecadf966f}}

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING in Singapore, said the latest attacks show “we still have a long way to go before normalization.”{{cite:273a2baf111f}} The world’s largest shipping industry association warned that vessel transit through the strait may decline following the incidents, though some shipowners will still be willing to risk the passage.{{cite:273a2baf111f}}

Energy stocks rally, tech and chips sell off

The equity market split cleanly along risk lines. Energy majors rallied on the oil price surge: ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $108.44, up 4.69%{{cite:c1ecc7a569b4}}; ExxonMobil (XOM) closed at $141.65, up 3.81%{{cite:c1ecc7a569b4}}; Chevron (CVX) closed at $173.94, up 3.47%{{cite:c1ecc7a569b4}}; and the United States Oil Fund (USO) closed at $108.92, up 4.38%{{cite:c1ecc7a569b4}}.

The broader market went the other way. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25% to 52,925.15; the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.16% to 25,818.69; and the S&P 500 lost 0.45% to 7,503.85.{{cite:273a2baf111f}} The Dow had hit a record high earlier in the session before reversing.{{cite:e8a5b4849571}}

The Nasdaq’s 500-point drop was driven by a chip-stock selloff with its own independent catalyst: Samsung reported a record $58 billion quarterly profit, but its stock still fell roughly 7%, dragging the entire semiconductor complex lower. Intel (INTC) fell as low as $108.36, breaking below its 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-day moving averages simultaneously, and was down over 8% at press time. AMD cratered 8%, Applied Materials dove 10%, and Micron dropped below $900.{{cite:e8a5b4849571}} The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 6%.{{cite:273a2baf111f}} Samsung’s announcement that it plans to mass-produce its advanced 1.4nm process by 2029 intensified competitive fears around Intel and TSMC.{{cite:e8a5b4849571}}

The result was a session where two different shocks hit simultaneously: an Iran-driven energy risk premium on one side, and a Samsung-driven AI-semi repricing on the other. The Dow’s relative outperformance versus the Nasdaq reflected that split — energy and industrial names absorbed the geopolitical risk bid, while rate-sensitive and AI-exposed tech bore the brunt.

The ceasefire timeline and what broke it

The US-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, with coordinated US-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Khamenei on the first day.{{cite:906ecadf966f}} Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping in response, at times allowing passage only to vessels from select countries that negotiated transit with the IRGC, with some reportedly paying as much as $2 million per ship at the height of the conflict. The US imposed its own naval blockade on Iranian ports in June.{{cite:906ecadf966f}}

A preliminary MoU was signed on June 14, stipulating that the strait would be free to all shipping for at least 60 days.{{cite:906ecadf966f}} High-level talks in Switzerland on June 21-22 produced a roadmap for a final deal, with sanctions, oversight, and nuclear working groups established.{{cite:4fe550dbe6fc}} The US waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days on June 23, with Trump warning that Washington would act if Tehran failed to meet its commitments.{{cite:4fe550dbe6fc}}

But a round of indirect talks in Qatar concluded last week with no sign of headway toward a lasting peace.{{cite:906ecadf966f}} Key sticking points remain: the vague wording of the MoU on the strait, whether Iran will be allowed to charge “environmental or service fees” to ships transiting Hormuz (which the US strongly rejects), and the broader question of Iran’s nuclear program. Mohsen Milani of the University of South Florida described Iran as “weaponising Hormuz geographically to bolster its bargaining power,” while Washington seeks to prevent any arrangement that expands Iranian control under the principle of freedom of navigation.{{cite:906ecadf966f}}

A second front: Ukraine hits Russian shadow fleet

Compounding the energy-supply picture, Ukraine’s “Madyar” drone unit reported striking eight Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Azov Sea overnight on July 7, claiming “industrial scale results.”{{cite:cc6ed0505399}} The Kyiv Independent published screenshots from video allegedly capturing fires following the strikes.{{cite:cc6ed0505399}} While the Azov Sea is a smaller theater than Hormuz, the simultaneous attacks on Russian and Iranian-linked shipping infrastructure tighten the global oil-supply picture from two directions.

What to watch next

The 60-day MoU window opened on June 14 and now has roughly three weeks remaining. The escalation pattern — tanker strikes, sanctions revocation, US military action, Iranian threats of “immediate and decisive response” — is the kind of tit-for-tat spiral that preceded the February war. Several indicators will tell whether this is a brief re-escalation that resets the negotiating table or a genuine slide back toward open conflict:

• Hormuz traffic data. Kpler and MarineTraffic crossing counts in the days ahead will show whether shipowners pull back. The weekend’s 108 crossings over three days was already below pre-war norms; a sharp drop would signal that the insurance and shipping markets are pricing in renewed risk.

• Iran’s response to the US strikes. Araghchi has said negotiations will not proceed if threats continue. Whether Iran retaliates militarily against US forces or Gulf shipping, or limits itself to diplomatic condemnation, will determine the trajectory.

• Oil price follow-through. WTI’s move above $72 and Brent’s above $76 reversed a recent two-day decline. Whether these levels hold or fade will indicate whether markets are pricing a persistent risk premium or a one-day reaction. ING’s Patterson framing — “a long way to go before normalization” — sets a bearish-on-supply baseline.

• The next round of talks. The Qatar round produced no progress. If no new negotiating round is announced within the coming week, the MoU’s 60-day clock may simply expire without a replacement framework.

• Secondary effects on inflation and rates. A sustained oil move back into the mid-$70s complicates the disinflation narrative that equity markets — particularly rate-sensitive tech — have been trading on. The chip selloff had its own Samsung-driven catalyst, but the dual-shock session is a reminder that energy and tech can move in opposite directions fast when geopolitical risk reappears.

The pattern that matters here is the return of something markets had begun to discount. The June MoU, the sanctions waiver, the recovering tanker traffic — all pointed toward a de-escalation path. The July 7 strikes, the US military response, and the revocation of the oil licenses point in the other direction. Both cannot be true simultaneously for much longer. The next two to three weeks of the MoU window are the test.